Member Info for LoungeLizard1

Lucky Luciano, Trump says a lot of things. I wouldn’t take his word at face value. Remember, Trump was the one who put sanctions on Gazprom back in 2019. He did not like the idea of Nord Stream 2. Nobody did. In fact, many lawmakers from both the Republican and Democratic lawmakers opposed it. Not just because it reduced the US share of the lucrative European market for American liquefied natural gas, but because they correctly saw that a European dependence on Russian oil was a security threat. The sanctions upset many in Europe, particularly Germany. Merkel should have realized that the Americans were doing her a favour.

LT, the discussion of neutrality is meaningless because Russia doesn’t see Ukraine as an independent state. Neutrality is for enablers and pacifists. Russia has never allowed Ukraine to pull away and do its own thing. Even back in 2003, Ukraine was forced to accept terms by Russia over the Tuzla Island incident. Do you know about that? Russia has a habit of taking things it doesn’t own.

“Yet all wars are one big L irrespective who wins the token hollow win.”

Really? When talk fails (and it does sometimes) violence is the only way to conclude things. It’s grim, but that’s human nature.

Ironically, the only people calling for “peace” now are extremists of every persuasion: Tankies, MAGA believers, wokists, libertarians, conspiratorial types in the Manosphere.

“The war will end with both sides (including USA new administration) at the table talking peace and it's not just Russia pulling out which seems like a dumb idea.”

Both sides are not going to sit down around the table. I am willing to bet money on this.

Russia has been too belligerent, and this has only been encouraged by the West’s hesitancy and apprehension to get too involved. Simple decisions have taken too much time, military aid has been supplied too late. There’s too much fear, indecision and appeasement. People are too comfortable, think it doesn’t concern them. Bad mistake.

If ( big IF) the US does decide to forget about Ukraine, it will be the end of them as the global hegemon. Would Americans like to be usurped by Russia? What do you think?

You admit yourself Ukraine is unduly influenced by the US. I don’t disagree with that. But even if the US allegedly staged a coup back in 2014, it’s nowhere near as bad as what as Russia done still.

Seriously, no chance of negotiations. I will send you £100 if, somehow, it happens. Give me your Paypal.

"Just take the L and let there be peace." Hahahah. Yeah, right, LT. Ukraine cannot be forced to negotiate until things are at a level-playing field. Given how things are now, there is ZERO chance of negotiations happening next year. The US also cannot allow it. They need to give the Russians a bloody nose. Otherwise, they’ll look weak and others will take advantage of this. China etc will feel emboldened and this will further threaten the hegemony of the US. FXPO isn’t worth a single penny unless Ukraine wins. We may be waiting a bit, but it will be worth it. There will be some decent re-entry opportunities when things escalate even more next year. I can see the SP flatlining after the New Year. If you aren’t supportive of Ukraine, why are you even here? Honest question. Admittedly I do share some cynicism towards some of Ukraine’s partners, but understand that in the end they will do the right thing. The war could end tomorrow if Russia pulled out – but it won’t, so the war must continue. It’s really not that hard to grasp.

Exactly Alex. There's absolutely NO chance of Putin being welcomed back onto the world stage. The Global South and BRICS can laud Putin as much as they want, but at the end of the day, it is the West that calls the shots. North Korea's appearance in the conflict is an escalation the West simply cannot ignore without its political, military and economic hegemony being totally and permanently undermined. Everyone is watching. Trump, with all his bluster about America First, will have to accommodate a Ukrainian victory as part of this vision, unless he wants to be known as the president that lost Ukraine. He won’t want that.

A lot of talk about negotiations on this board. Why would either side come to the negotiating table? Ukraine won’t. Ukraine is losing. Any negotiations will put them at an immediate disadvantage. They won’t be in any position to make demands and will have to make many concessions which will put the nation in an even more degraded state. Russia, anyway, won’t negotiate. There’s little incentive for Putin to come to the negotiating table when he has the opportunity to grab more territory and expand his empire. Continued hostilities, therefore, are the inevitable conclusion.

Big drop incoming. Now the US has given the green light for ATACMS strikes inside Russia, let’s see how low we go. It might be too little, too late for Ukraine. Hope Trump has a few more surprises in the bag. I doubt he will want to be known as the president responsible for losing Ukraine.

Waltz’s stance on Ukraine/Russia is really interesting. His attitude towards Russia has been far more hawkish than Sullivan, suggesting back in 2022 that the US give the Ukraine all the lethal aid it needs, plus permission to strike targets deep into Russian territory. He has made a lot of valid criticisms of the US forays into Afghanistan too, and he sees many similarities with Ukraine. Unfortunately, he seems far more focused on China and Iran. Waltz has criticized many European nations, in particular Germany, for not pulling their own weight, their inaction, indecision and slow responses.

Haha. I'm actually quite glad that I'm out. Admittedly, I could've made a lot more off my 20,000 shares, but I got what I wanted. Would love to get back in, but my personal reentry point is sub 50p. Too much risk above that. Volatility is absurd. Just waiting to see what happens this winter.

Yes T, not looking good. Pompeo was the man you would want in the position.

Okay, so Trump has confirmed that Pompeo will NOT be Secretary of Defense, in fact he will not have any position in the Trump administration. Nikki Haley is also out of a position too.

Peace is sounding like just another promise. The Germans announced on Wednesday that they have plans to reintroduce conscription. Trump is likely to reappoint Pompeo Secretary of Defense, and Pompeo has already stated that he intends to set up a $500 billion lend-lease program where Ukraine borrows the money instead of US taxpayers. The proposed peace plan shared by Trump’s transition team has recently been published by the WSJ, and much of it has already been slated by the Ukrainian government. The main bone of contention being that continued military aid is dependent on Ukraine agreeing to a planned 800 mile DMZ and 20-year freeze on joining NATO. With the Ukrainians currently on the backfoot, this makes Trumps idea of a quick peace deal very unreal. Since Putin believes he is winning it is only logical that he will push further into Ukraine. European nations are already gearing up just in case. I would not be surprised then, if NATO eventually does have to get its hands dirty – for real. Tonight, Polish President Andrzej Duda is flying to Florida tonight to meet with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago…

If the fire was started by a saboteur (say FSB), a RNS would be even more damaging for the SP.

Rob, Trump says a lot of stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if he suddenly did a volte-face and turned massively hawkish. The man is totally unpredictable. And don't forget he's a businessman. He knows how to deliver simplistic, slick lines that supposedly explain complex problems for the 'average Joe' (often in a way not entirely beneficial).

Also, Alex – exactly.

I see FXPO going over 60p soon at the very minimum, before dropping back down to the 40s once all the election buzz dies down. Unfortunately, I feel that the war will continue throughout 2025. As Alex said, neither candidate bodes well for the US/world/Ukraine.

I wouldn't be so sure, rob. A Trump victory doesn't necessarily equate into good news for FXPO. You think Trump will be able to end the war? If FXPO has become a wallstreetbets stock/Trump stock I'm definitely staying away for the time being. All the Trump stocks get infected by explosive volatility – and FXPO already has enough of that.

Yonhap news agency reports that South Korea is considering sending “weapons for defense and attack.” Citing an unnamed presidential official, Yonhap also noted that Seoul may send military and intelligence personnel to Ukraine to analyse North Korean battlefield tactics and assist in the interrogations of captured North Koreans.

Ballsy. I sold out last week when I was in the green. I sense another rug pull. Am waiting for sub-45p again.

Troajan, how have you come to that conclusion? Harris has already shown her cards. Only a fool does that. Especially if you nothing to offer Ukraine. No better than Trump. Ukrainian mil-bloggers are not positive in the slightest about the upcoming US election. I believe them. I also share their displeasure at the hesitation of the US to give Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia. How exactly is this following the “Kremlin narrative”? I wouldn’t say advocating for further retaliation on Russia is pro-Kremlin rhetoric!

Troajan, Harris team are the same as Bidens: weak. They have not given Ukraine U.S. permission to use ATACMS inside Russia. Its the very least they could do. Unless the Yanks come up with some serious ideas to help Ukraine – eg providing air defense to intercept missiles – Ukraine will be forced to a unacceptable peace. Why? US acts decisively for Israel all the time. But the US is afraid of Russia – embarrassingly. The US needs to project strength, otherwise the enemies of the West – Russia, China, NK, Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas etc – will feel emboldened. Xi will certainly take Taiwan.

We'll see after the US elections. I'm not optimistic. The incoming US administrations are potentially going to both follow the same path of deescalation. Expect a lot of appeasement, lame platitudes about freedom and democracy, etecera. I can see the conflict freezing along the current front line, albeit shifting into a low-intensity conflict. This won’t benefit Ukraine. Emigration will increase, socio-economic problems will worsen, in short the state will get even weaker – just in time for a second Russian invasion. I hope none of this happens. If the US and NATO does not come to the rescue, then I hope some of Ukraine’s neighbours do. They actually do understand what’s at stake. Either way, it’s going to get a lot worse before it gets a lot better.