Member Info for LoungeLizard1

Maybe, Minecheck. Negotiations could end fighting – but for how long? Putin might take the chance to merely regroup and rearm the Russian Armed Forces, permitting him to embark on another invasion of Ukraine. I was actually feeling rather optimistic several months back over how the year might pan out for FXPO. Now, less so. The SP could definitely drop back to previous lows (41p seems inevitable). Jumbo07, time to start accumulating… not to sound too glib, but it’s not often that you get an opportunity like this. I wouldn’t worry too much about missing it, I reckon this window for accumulation might last for quite a while… the situation of the ground is severe for Ukraine – all attention is currently on Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub in the Donbass. Like Kramatorsk, Pokrovsk is one of two hubs supporting Ukrainian forces along a broad frontline from Vuhledar to the north of Donetsk and beyond. Losing Pokrovsk would threaten the resupply of Ukrainian forces from Vuhledar to Horlivka, in particular Ukrainian units in the Bakhmut-Horlivka sector. The Ukrainians already don’t have enough men and munitions, efforts to stabilize Pokrovsk and hold the line aren’t helped by the fact that some of the best Ukrainian units are fighting in Kursk now. Personally, I will be keeping my eye on what the Poles do and say.

Popopop8, I think the Indians see a great opportunity for international prestige and influence, as well as a chance to counter all the attention China has been getting from the situation. Call me jaded, perhaps. If only the West had just given what the Ukrainians needed immediately, then, maybe the Ukrainians might be in a better position to dictate terms. But no. They had to dither and blather amongst themselves. Part of me thinks it was deliberate so Western arms companies could maximise profit. Anyway, four oblasts of Ukraine have now been subsumed into the Russian Federation. And Crimea has been annexed. Zelensky has already stated he will not surrender these for peace, and yet Putin has demanded if Ukraine wants peace, he must. So, how else can this be resolved other than fighting? I would absolutely love for everything to be back to normal, but have a feeling we might have to wait until somebody totally bleeds out… I really hope I am wrong.

Yesterday, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that Belarusian armed forces are concentrating a significant number of personnel, weapons, and equipment near Ukraine's northern border under the guise of exercises. These include

Wagner PMC. Ukraine has stated any violation of its territory will result in Belarusian troop concentrations, military facilities and supply routes in Belarus becoming legitimate targets for the armed forces of Ukraine.

Whether this buildup translates into actual escalation or not, I wouldn't be surprised if this leads to a further drop in the SP.

Such potential threats, however, do at least often come with fresh buying opportunities...

Popopop8, I know, which I why I fear the Ukrainians will progressively rely more and more on private contractors, volunteers and mercenaries. Yesterday, US Republican senator Lindsay Graham was already talking about recruiting retired F-16 pilots to fly for Ukraine. Also, Trump might oppose Ukraine joining NATO, but it is clear his administration would favour Ukraine – he would initiate a huge lend-lease program to supply to keep the country afloat, as well put further sanctions on Russia.

Negotiations, treaties, an armistice, look less and less likely. The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk is a major escalation.

Putin has to respond. It is the most significant threat to his power since the abortive march on Moscow by Prigozhin.

A failure to stem the Ukrainian advance would be more than embarrassing. If Russian forces are routed and surrender en-masse, there would be inevitable societal collapse. Perhaps, even a ousting of Putin himself. Russians might be known for being gluttons for punishment, but the oligarchs could feel otherwise as the war saps the economy. It might be like 1917 again. Unstable. On the other hand, if Ukrainian forces are exhausted, its Western backers will find themselves compelled to fight on its behalf. Poland and the Baltics have already made it explicitly clear that they would simply not allow Ukraine to fall into the hands of Putin. Nonetheless, this would mark a dangerous turning point and a major expansion of the conflict.

Now, the conflict is clearly existential for sides, and has enormous ramifications for the global community. Each side has a different idea of peace. The peace desired by the Ukrainians will most likely take much longer to arrive. But there is no other way for Ferrexpo to realize its true potential. The peace desired by Russia would see the stock become utterly worthless, the company requisitioned at the behest of the oligarchs.

No wonder the stock is discounted beyond belief – the future of FXPO is uncertain, full of potentialities. One is the multi-bagger of a lifetime.

Shares will probably break out next week, but much uncertainty remains around the ending of hostilities. I don't see the SP going above £1 until this happens. Would love to be proved wrong, but all the signs are pointing to fighting right through 2025 at the very minimum.

Agree Alex. Recently, Zelensky has said that Ukraine will not give up any land – and I don't the Ukrainians will listen to Trump if he demands it, whatever the US threats. Hence why Europe, in particular, the Baltics and especially Poland (Poles have pledged to spend 5% of GDP on military from 2025) have been rearming for the future. Russia must be utterly defeated on the battlefied for any meaningful progression out of this debacle. I think the war will go on for a couple of more years. Putin's time on the world stage is over regardless.

Everything is tanking – discount time! Vale and Thyssen-Krupp are at record lows at the moment. Everything is following AI and tech stocks. More concerned at the upcoming US election. With a Trump presidency almost guaranteed, we can expect a very interesting autumn/winter – to say the least.

SP will drop below 52p again I reckon, have been amongst the sellers. Will get back in soon when time is right. Been nice to make some profit though.

Trump will certainly win this coming election. That's a given now I'd say. However, I don't see any form of peace coming.

I believe the Russians will make the terms of any peace negotiations so ridiculous and unfair that the Ukrainians will have no choice but to continue fighting. Of course, this will be deliberate – Putin then will cynically blame the Ukrainians for refusing. I don't think he has any real intentions to come to an armistice in the first place. If somehow a peace is forged, I expect it to merely prolong the inevitable. Too much blood has been shed for either side to walk away, one side must prevail.

Yeah, I saw there's more sellers than buyers – I was one. I sold a small proportion of my holding to bank some profit. If the price goes down I will buy more. The recent NATO conference in Washington highlighted how protracted and severe this affair is turning out to be for all parties involved. It is not total war yet, but the West is certainly gearing up for one. I don't think a Trump victory necessarily guarantees peace or cessation of hostilities. I don't actually think it will matter who is the White House. There's simply no way this conflict freezes without basically prolonging the inevitable. Personally, I now think this conflict will not just continue, but escalate, slowly, but surely.

The UK's new Defence Secretary John Healey has announced a new package of support to Ukraine including:

+ 250,000 rounds of 50 calibre ammunition

+ 90 anti-armour Brimstone missiles

+ 50 small military boats to support river and coastal operations

+ 40 de-mining vehicles

+ 10 AS-90 artillery guns

+ 61 bulldozers to help build defensive positions

+ Support for previously gifted AS-90s, including 32 new barrels and critical spares which will help Ukraine fire another 60,000 155mm rounds

Additionally, Healey has pledged to fast-track military support that was committed for Ukraine in April to now arrive within the next 100 days. This includes: 400 vehicles, 1600 strike and air defence missiles, including additional Storm Shadow long-range precision guided-missiles, 4 million rounds of ammunition and 60 boats, including off-shore raiding craft.

SMKR, can’t see any peace deal happening that doesn’t benefit Ukraine in the long-term. Putin will expect such ridiculous terms that the Ukrainians won’t be able to do anything but refuse anyway. I easily see Europe becoming embroiled militarily on the battlefield at some point. NATO itself, maybe not, but perhaps the Baltic states. I hope some sort of equilibrium is found for the business because I can’t see the fighting ending any time soon. Nonetheless, it is a prime time to get some bargain shares.

Had same feeling, I am now in the green after seeing red for so long.

Updates:

1) Reuters reports that Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia will build a 700km defense line for €2.5bn on the border with Russia and Belarus.

2) Estonian security adviser Madis Roll said that Estonia is considering sending a detachment of troops to support Ukraine in logistics, thereby freeing up more Ukrainian troops for the front.

3) Chasiv Yar: The Russian assault has more or less stalled. The Ukrainians are putting up a vicious defence.

4) Vovchansk: The Russian elite 83rd Airborne Brigade has retreated after a costly three-week deployment.

5) Russia is increasingly reliant on mercenaries. It is also press-ganging many foreigners and immigrants into its armed forces under threat of imprisonment or deportation. Many others are joining willingly, lured by promises of Russian citizenship and high salaries. A significant proportion come from African nations like Rwanda, Burundi, DRC, Uganda, Tanzania, Ethiopia, Somalia and Nigeria. Thousands more come from Syria, Libya, Nepal, India, and Cuba.

5) Due to the increasing lack of armoured vehicles, Russia is using motorbikes heavily now. Beside scouting recces and medical evacuations, they are typically used for assaulting Ukrainian positions. Incredibly, Russians have also been spotted using Chinese Desertcross 1000-3 golf carts with added armour and camouflage.

6) Although the court case is still dragging the share price down, I expect positive results for July. At current prices, the stock price is a steal. I do not believe it presumptuous to expect a dividend in August.

7) Whatever the outcome of the US election, the support of Ukraine lies mainly with Europe. Apart from Scholz, most leaders in the EU have recognised this.

Https://forbes.ua/ru/company/lideri-ukrainskoi-promislovosti-matimut-virishalne-znachennya-dlya-vidnovlennya-ukraini-13062024-21744

As much as I'd love hostilities to end, they aren't. Not this year. Or next. I would bet money on it, unfortunately. Any news you see about a armistice or negotiations are absolute nonsense or/and disinformation. Both sides seek victory.

At Ferrexpo’s recent AGM, all resolutions were passed except for those regarding the directors’ authority to allot shares and disapply pre-emption rights, which faced significant opposition due to concerns of share dilution by the largest shareholder. The re-appointment of Vitalii Lisovenko as an Independent Non-executive Director did not pass the independent shareholders’ vote and will be subject to a second vote. The company plans to engage with shareholders to understand their concerns and will report on this engagement within six months.

Ha a cameo from Zhevago would be interesting... probably busy skiing though. Expecting details of AGM by afternoon, still early.

AGM tomorrow.