Member Info for LOTM-13

Hi,

Could you please tell me which brokers allow you to trade this share as Barclay's Smart Investor sadly doesn't.

Thanks in advance
LOTM

to continue....

If you do share buy-backs in the way Shell or BP have done for years, then you're not acting in the interests of your long term shareholders, quite the reverse your costing them billions & billions of $, because your buy-in the shares at the peak of cycle instead of the trough. Those buy-back funds should be set aside ready to use when the oil & gas prices are in sharp retreat.

If Shell or BP had done it smartly over the last 10 or 15 years the actual number of shares in issue in each company would be at least 20% less than there are currently, which translates into a dividend amount 20% or more higher than it currently is, not to mention a far higher share price as well.

If GKP did it the right way, shareholder returns would thrive over time, yes the dividend rate would be lower in the beginning if they only paid out $20M in every $30M distribution. But 2 years down the line that same $20M could be matching the rate you'd have got from the current $25M one in cents per share and by the end of year 3 yielded all the cash you missed out on before it got to the break-even point. Not to mention the higher $$$ you'll be getting thereafter. It will also boost the share price over time because it boosts the EPS and there are limits on how low a share can trade to its earning multiple before buyers pile in.

As I said I'm here for the dividend income, but what I said earlier is what's in the best interest of long term shareholders.

As for the amount that's going to be returned this year, its hard to say, given the political factors that have to be taken into account as well as the oil price.

Well's certainly aren't cheap at what appears to be roughly $20M a shot to drill and complete & yes I don't like them saying it was on budget/under budget/over budget when they don;t actually state in the 1st place what the expected cost is likely to be.

They've spent a lot of $ on SH16, 17 & 18 which they'll be looking to get back ASAP.

As for production, I can certainly see 50,000 bopd being achievable for 2023 as long as SH17 & 18 are at least average wells.

LOTM

I know this is my 1st post on this site & I don't intend to post often.

I've invested in O&G stocks over the years and got badly burned by some of them. Along that journey I've made one or two contacts who work in the industry.

I invested in GKP for the 1st time ever last year, purely for the dividends (I'm not going to go into the reason behind that). So I've no baggage with the stock - although I think one of my friends did get burned by it in the old days.

I've read this board on and off since just before I bought in.

My old self would go through things with a fine toothcomb, but I've melode over time and don't do the depth of research I used to.

PUTUP I like reading most of your posts, but your last one about productions numbers is sadly totally wrong. The 14th Sept presentation put average production for the year to date number as at 31st August at @ 45,000 bopd. The next official update on 19th Dec, put the year to date figure at 44,100 (to 17th Dec) with current production at 44,400 on that date as well.

Production was increasing as SH-16 was starting to contribute to it as well as the return to production of the well that had the failed ESP.

The company update was poor, the director's should have been open, honest & transparent with shareholders in it instead of just telling part of the story. Look ESP failures occur's they are expensive pieces of kit & you can't just set the new one to the old setting and have it work optimally, it has to be set-up separately to find its optimum settings.

What is obvious to me is that it was the ESP in one of the company's best wells that failed and the directors should have named the well & the estimated loss of daily production it would entail in that announcement as well as the time to replace it in days (its not a straight forward process by all accounts).

My guess is that the well in question was one that produces north of 4,000 bopd and that the failure happened in very late Nov or the 1st couple of days in Dec.

What's also clear from the latest announcement on 30th Jan is that SH-16 is currently a good producer, especially since it doesn't yet have its own flow line, whether that remains to be the case depends to a large extent on the size of the natural fractures its in contact with.

As for distributions, I don't believe paying all the cash out in dividends last year was in the best interests of the company's long term shareholders. They should be using a hybrid model. The $10M in annual saving from the repayment of the bond should be immediately used to instigate a share buy-back and they should also be allocating 1/3 of any distribution to share buy-backs as well ( even if they don't do it at that exact time). Let me explain further in another post as there seems to be character limits in place.

LOTM