Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I can understand why you would feel like that, but only if you are expecting a quick return or are day trading. The last 5 years have been a very bad time for investors in this stock, but finally it does look like the plans put in place by the current management team are begining to bear fruit. I say this for two reasons :
1. They are actually progressing and executing what they said they would do and have not contrived some recovery plan, based on 'spin' and objectives that are simply pie in the sky.
2. The results, so far, and the projections regarding the debt level and profitability for the next year to 18 months are well within their grasp. Unless there is a genuine possibility of take over talks (which I was led to believe was on the cards a couple of months ago) the share price will only show a consistent upward trend with the release of information, for example further news around completion of asset disposal or increased numbers of new contract 'wins'.
I have no idea what the share price will be at any given time but I would be dissapointed if it did not reach, and stabilize, within the 55-60p range by the end of 2021.
This is a disgrace, and the fact that the. BoD have endorsed the offer is a comment on their abject failure over a number of years. I reckon they had little option though, as there clearly is no plan B to raise capital or to conclude as successful re financing package in 2021
Absolutely right Mr Flibby, the big question is will ABC subscribe to that view, and other institutional investors for that matter?
Is that what all those investors who brought in at the float price thought? Long term investment? Of course they did and look how they have been rewarded. I agree with Jed, something just does not feel right.
Assuming the offer is firm and the BOD recommends this to shareholders for approval, 35p represents about 14% of the float price in 2014! A salutary lesson in how a debt pile will cripple, what potentially and operationally, is a good company. Spare a thought for those retail investors who are holding huge losses. It could be worse! you might have invested in the WEIF!
This is stagnant. I sold and put some into Blackbird, real prospects.
'Just down to price' - really. You may have noticed that the tone of the statement on RNS was bland to say the least. You may also remember previously when the statement was upbeat and more positive. This doea not suggest that negotiations are progressing well or badly, but the absence of any tangible positive info makes me thing that the discussions/negotiations will cease and no bid will materialise. Only my opinion.
Sorry but I can’t agree. The problem is refinancing the debt. Who would lend, at a good rate, to a company that can not evidence sustained reduction of the loan? Hence this scenario indicates high risk due to performance fluctuation potential.
Sorry to say but there will be no bid. There is simply too much weight behind the movement downwards. Once the no deal announcement comes it will plummet to below 17p. Then a short term buying opportunity may arise.
Unfortunately the shorts are here to stay. 17p soon and then the long wait until the refinancing deal is announced. If/when it doesn’t happen the AA will be broken up and the Insurance arm sold off. The rest of it will also be sold, but not at any sort of premium!
The investors are the losers, I’m sorry to say, but the debt pile is crippling and there is no easy solution.
Whilst the due diligence process can take several months to complete there must be some reason 'out' there that is having a negative impact on the share price. The fact that shorts are increasing again makes me nervous and suspicious that the 'behind the doors intel' is pointing towards a no offer, or offer being rejected, situation. Only my opinion, but I'm happy not to be holding this stock (having sold out again last week).
In discussion with a broker associate today the subject of the AA came up. Apparently there is an increasing consensus that the company are trying to look to re finance the debt by longer term borrowing rather than being brought out by a PE firm. He also expressed the view that if there was any offer made it would be in the 34-38p range. DYOR, this is only one persons opinion
Your gonna be screwed if there is no bid then! But I guess if you have over 125k to invest in one stock your probably loaded in anycase.
I agree 35p would not be acceptable and there will be a lot of institutional shareholders nursing losses, as well as many private investors. I sold out a couple of weeks ago but am considering buying back in now as I still think this is worth a punt for both short or long term gains
Mr Flibbles - 75p+ are you serious?!! More like 35p
Agreed, a feasible line of thought, however I would expect an in principle offer could be made, subject to final checks and balances being signed off by both sides (announced next week). Having been through takeover/merger situations myself, 8 weeks to cover off fairly extensive due diligence is ample time and the potential bidders will have a firmed up view at to their intention by now.
My suspicion is that the AA board will be desperately trying to put in place alternative options to raise capital, for debt reduction.
I predict equity raising through a rights offer or steady state whilst they continue discussions (assuming they’re are in place) re refinancing Via other means.