Member Info for lordloadsoflolly

Baf3 - not sure how many times I have to say “I never short shares” before you drop your conspiracy theory.

Gheko - see my previous post. There’s definitely mileage in a lower sodium product. Question is, how much will consumers value Microsalt in flavour & price versus potassium chloride-containing alternatives?

Prion25 - you never know & I certainly hope you’re right.

But I fear this will prove to be yet another false dawn.

I wouldn’t put it past Americo either to orchestrate a low ball firesale bid from GF in 2 or 3 years’ time. Or to throw in the towel completely, admit his 3x revenue, 30% GM plan is for the birds & return to GF. Who’d no doubt welcome him back with open arms & another lucrative role.

Admittedly he’s got skin in the game with IQE. But you can bet your bottom dollar he’ll find a way to feather his nest whatever the outcome. Unlike the average private investor he persuaded to stick around, following his Capital Markets “I have a dream” vision.

Prion25 - I've learnt - the hard way - with IQE that you should never assume.

Over the years, there've been countless posts about exciting new partner gains & business sectors about to explode for IQE. And look where we are now.

Sadly, this company has a long history of making nothing out of something.

TopCatz - I agree. Though let's face it, improving on Lucy's IPO is a pretty low bar.

I suspect Lucy will simply be overtaken by the big boys before long. Their budgets will dwarf anything Lucy can muster in their attempt to retain first mover advantage. The RayBan Meta tie up shows it's already started.

In terms of Microsalt's competitors, their patents probably mean they've a more efficient moat. My main concerns are whether a leading salt producer could simply circumvent these by creating a different crystal size using slightly different means. There may be no cost effective way to do this whilst keeping within patent laws. But until we know for sure, it remains a worry.

Also, a lot has been said about the allegedly inferior aftertaste of existing low sodium salts (containing potassium chloride) versus Microsalt. Yet there are many positive online customer reviews for both Lo Salt & Saxa So-Lo. So the question remains, will customers really taste the difference - or care - whether Microsalt is potassium chloride free? Particularly if - in the middle of a cost of living crisis - it comes with any price premium over those alternatives.

Lordmakealot - I'd hope Microsalt was worth more than 17p!

Seriously though, until this morning, I'd assumed Microsalt already manufactured at least part of its output in-house.

As you suggest, moving over to this isn't risk-free. But it should greatly improve margins longer term, assuming they get it right. Let's just hope it doesn't become another HS2, with the initial budgeted costs spiralling, leading to further fundraises & ever more dilution.

Prion25 - It may be good news. But as there's no mention of any sales orders, the market has largely dismissed it for now. Indeed, IQE's price is down so far today.

I'm increasingly sceptical of companies trying to jump on the AI bandwagon to give their share price a short term boost. So I'd treat any RNS like this with caution, until there are firm numbers to prove any impact on the bottom line.

CaptLard - I suspect the "fundamental flaw" is that oogleflugal bought closer to SMT's 2021 price peak and is now regretting it.

Unfortunately we all make investment mistakes - & I certainly include myself in that. But it's usually better to learn from them, than blame-shift.

Oogleflugal - thanks for that view, which some long term holders - myself included - will question.

Like most things, it all depends on the timeframe you look at - and when you invested.

Elrico - I've not blamed you - or anyone else - for investment mistakes.

Just said I wouldn't pay for your "research" if you paid me (which would be fairly self-defeating of you).

I have taken one bit of your advice though, which is to add you to my filter list. Bye.

Aspex - I guess you can offer it, if you really must.

But again - thanks, but no thanks.

Once BITten,, twice shy and all that.

Shameless advertising from Elrico there.

As for paying for your - er - in-depth analysis. Thanks, but no thanks.

TopCatz - Unfortunately I didn't find your post smug or arrogant. Annoying isn't it :)

TopCatz - for someone who “barely reads any of my posts”, you’ve a remarkable knack of replying to them.

A £10m divi would certainly be a good start & I admire your optimism about the £30m shocks valuation.

TopCatz - maybe try reading my post.

Re: your hypothetical scenario, I NEVER suggested "paying the whole lot to shareholders as a divi." Just that in any three way split, existing shareholders were thrown more than just a few crumbs.

SirTradealot - I'm rather with you on this.

It certainly sounds positive that TEK's managed to secure two illustrious AI experts.

But they need to walk before they can run. Rewarding existing shareholders today, before investing in our tomorrow.

Always good to have long term vision. But only once you've a proven track record.

TopCatz - assuming this ever happens - still a big if - your proposal sounds a sensible outcome.

But it depends on the nature of the three way split. Many long term shareholders (myself included) are nursing heavy losses currently. So any dividend payout needs to reward them handsomely for their loyalty. And not just throw them a few crumbs now, with the vague hope of AI riches in another decade or so.

Thanks stocksr - in terms of SMT - as with any investment really - you've basically just three options:

1. ADD (funds permitting), if you're still confident in SMT's long term prospects, think it's currently under-rated & are prepared to wait a few years (possibly more) for things to turn around.

2. HOLD, as above

3. SELL, if you've lost faith & don't see it coming good any time soon

Like most of us, Buffett's basic strategy is to seek out shares where the price is unjustifiably low (based on their intrinsic value & long term prospects). Then hold - and hold - until they reach their just market value. Then sell if he thinks market value's peaking.

It all sounds very simple of course. But he's a master at it - and sadly most private investors (myself included) aren't.

I'm not sure what Buffett would make of SMT. Would he see huge future potential value hidden in a few of those unlisted holdings? Or would he regard them as a pile of overhyped, overpriced junk? And would he see SMT's main geographic/industry sectors as vulnerable to US political instability? American Presidential electioneering has begun. And by failing to support the Democrats' funding plans, the Republicans are threatening economic instability, with the risk of a US government shutdown, starting TOMORROW.

There's also a growing possibility Trump could return for a second term. Which most level-headed people are unlikely to welcome wholeheartedly, particularly if their President's having to create policy behind bars! He's already intimated he's less inclined to continue funding Ukraine's defences at their current level. And will be more US-centric in his financial support. Make America Great Again - and all that!

This all matters, because SMT is heavily invested in the US.

I think if I were you - and had bought at a significantly higher price than now - I'd be tempted to go for option 2 above. It's kind of the middle ground. You're not 100% confident SMT will ever recover. Equally, you're reluctant to crystallise a loss right now. At least with option 2, if the price recovers, you've benefitted from hanging on in there. And if it doesn't, you haven't thrown good money after bad.

But I really must stress I don't know your circumstances and everyone's different. So consider my musings about as reliable as that tipster you meet down the pub. And go with your gut.

Wildbunch - contrary to what you claim, my purpose is NOT "to try and persuade would-be investors not to invest."

Everyone's free to make up their own mind. And it won't affect me in the slightest, whatever decision they reach.

My only objective is to call out blatant ramping. Like treating Tim's latest announcement as gospel. Despite him making umpteen bullish forecasts & promises over the years which have NEVER, EVER materialised.

To coin Monty Python, Tim's not the Messiah, he's a very naughty boy.

Martinu - only logical conclusion is that after years of over-promising & under-delivering, investors expected even more of a disappointment this time round than they got.

Stocksr - hope you don't mind me (& others) sometimes posting off subject?

Personally, I find it helpful to compare SMT to other investment options & to hear if/how others have counterbalanced their SMT holding with lower risk alternatives. But I appreciate there's a risk of us going off on a permanent tangent!