The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Ok, here I go with a prediction - first with assumption. Assuming COVid does not re-emerge, and noting that there will be significant troughs and peaks along the way I suggest the IAG share price will steadily rise going forward and will hit £2.25 by July-22. So for all those looking for £2 - I would say Apr-22. I await the derision! Note: Total Amateur investor opinion.
Come on lets get real.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/564717/airline-industry-passenger-traffic-globally/
Even if you are correct on the Q4 forecast profit (which seems optimistic to me) this still equates to a P/E ratio of approximately 6 at the currrent share price of £1.70. IAG has historically traded around 10 (ish, or slightly lower) and with current significant debts vs. expected increasing profits due to passenger numbers returning this feels about right to me, so if the IAG forecast is worse than you suggest the share price may fall, but hey im no expert.
A Zoom call vs a face to face meeting in the US with your biggest customers who you havent seen for more than a year! This is no comparison and its cetrainly not good business acumen - this is letting in the competition - businesses, even small business will pay!
Personally hoping for excellent news from the IAG results tomorrow as heavily invested and looking to improve my current uncrystalized profits but I expect the results to be quite a mixed bag and difficult to interpret - will the forward looking aspects fall nicely into place and give sufficient confidence. I'm very unsure - I thinking there will be significant volatility tomorrow - so have your wits about you and good luck.
Well lets give BB the benefit of the doubt and say he is an investor. Lets do some simple maths.
BB stated he bough shares on 3rd Nov. Lets say he bought them at the bottom of the market early morning for £1.65 and then sold them today at some point for £1.70. His profit was a few KFC bargain buckets (lets say 5 big ones at £12 each). Thats a profit of £60. So that mean he purchased approximately 1,200 IAG shares at a cost of £1,980. I believe he said that was approximately 5% of his spare cash - so he has about £39,600 to invest - plus his £60 profit (unless he actually spends it on KFC). Approximate analysis I know, but fun to work out the competition anyway. Good Luck to all tomorrow, no matter which way to want the share price to go!
I dont think an RI is coming any time soon. CEO said no emergency fund raising required. Although it is clearly a medium to long-term risk. 12-18 months perhaps as one analyst has stated. I think the share price is a battle between high oil prices, and ongoing COViD worries vs increasing passanger number - the bears are winning atm, there is just not enough positive news.
Whilst I don’t hold the same views as a few who are heavily filtered by others on here, and am heavily invested in IAG myself; I do still urge caution to those who are ramping heavily! The debt is still an issue, especially the pension contributions! I’m still not convinced the share price is going to rise significantly anytime soon due to the above and other downward pressures. Although I hope the opening up bring a huge uptake in passenger numbers and I’m wrong!