Member Info for LONGWAIT

'And what, pray, is your evidence for this? Do you actally know or have met any longterm holders in HUR shares?'

I was referring to myself, Double.
I'm the LTH referred to.
I've been here five and a half glorious years and seen plenty jump ship.

'problem is we all expected to see land by now.'

That reminds me of the pre-war comedian impersonated by Ronnie Barker:

'I climbed the mast to look for land and when I came down, the ship was gone!'

Being a LTH of HUR shares is rather like being on a very long cruise and witnessing one passenger after another jump overboard because they have become convinced that it is going to sink.

... it is a substantial target, where oil has been identified in numerous wells.

"It needs further appraisal, but its potential rivals and is larger than most mature late-stage North Sea projects (depending on the development route chosen, the scale of the project is sufficient to model targets of several hundred million barrels)," they added.

Barryroe sits in relatively shallow water in a stable political environment and has attractive fiscal terms, Davy said.

And yet, it still seems unable to attract a suitor, and has never attracted one with other than dodgy funding.

Why?

'I think my problem is we are one RNS away from disaster.'
(HaggisTrap)
'No, I think your problem is that you worry too much.'
(Double)

Why can't we be one RNS away from a re-rating, with people finally waking up to the fact that this company is on its way to being a huge success story?

'thank you Longwait 30000 bpd not the 11000 today
And how much will it cost to get there'

Answers invited!

I thought production is expected to increase to 17,000 shortly, possibly 20,000 a while later, and that the cost of producing from LC is covered.

I recall reading that production could rise to 40,000.

I therefore stand by my figure of a P/E of 2 (or 1 if the price falls to 15).

If HUR are producing 30,000 bopd, with an exchange rate of $1.30 and oil price of about $65, then excluding tax, the P/E would indeed be 2.

'Longwait
P/E Ratio= price per share divided by the earnings per share
so to have a PE of 2 (as you say)on 33p HUR would have to pay out a dividend of 16.5p which is over 330m per year.
? I dont think so mate ! more like a PE of 100plus'

You're making an elementary mistake, by confusing earnings with dividends!

'With the number of shares and MCap imagine what HURs PE would be if they paid a divi'

Whether a company pays a dividend or not has no effect on its P/E ratio!

But, in any case, you need to do your calculations again.

'So HUR got to raise some dosh to take advantage of their resource otherwise we are at stalemate.'

Somehow, HUR was able to explore Lincoln and Warwick without having to raise dosh.
How do you explain that?

The 'stalemate' would possibly put us on a P/E ratio of two in a couple of years' time, which could easily justify a far higher share price as well as generate a massive cash pile..

There are many possibilities: using cash to prove up resources / more farm-outs/ a takeover bid .

There is no 'got to.'

With CA trading at a 25 percent discount to NAV, that means in effect that you can buy HUR shares for about 24p, provided you don't mind investing in De La Rue at the same time.

'At the current share price I see a lot of upside for anyone look to invest longer term, and for new investors, you will be buying at a level similar to that which those who got in early five years or more ago paid for their shares, but without many of the risks that they have had to take.'

My first purchase, 5 1/2 years ago, was at just above 40p, and my second purchase at 46p.
Someone here said he purchased at close to 50p soon afterwards.
... and we saw the mid- price subsequently slump to 8.85p.
Can you imagine what people were saying about how many things could go wrong, e.g. no-one would provide HUR with the capital needed to prove up resources, no-one would farm into any of them, no-one would want to buy the company?
Subsequently, the price slumped from 67.5p to 24p and we were hearing that the management had made a total mess of its funding, that it was incompetent, and then that it might never achieve first oil and even if it did, it would soon dry up because it had got it wrong about fractured basements.

Two posters stated that the price would 'fall rapidly' to 16p and 17p respectively.
Instead, it climbed slowly back to 60p, only to slump again and attract a new vulture yesterday, predicting 15p - implying a price earnings ratio of about one in about two years time.

He says he won't comment again until the price is in the teens.

We never heard from the two who predicted 16/17p again.

'Agree this is a punt at around 15p but still a gamble but an easy short to make money !! '

A share price of 15 p would put HUR on a prospective price earnings ratio of one.

Just noticed some earlier posts of his:

'11kbopd only keeps the bod in a lifestyle and keeps the lights on !! '
'A placing RNS next here around 21p then a drift down to 15p '

Is it possible he's out under a day-release-scheme and has forgotten to take his medication?

' The fact they try to convince themselves and then others that this company is dying with no lifeline left is pretty ridiculous...'

In my experience, it is normal to have posters rubbishing a company and mocking its LTHs, as though they be gullible morons.

We had a poster called TriggerSaysDave, trying to get us to sell JOG at the bottom, predicting it would go bust.
There are plenty of posters on SOU, predicting that it is going to go bust, and writing it off as worthless, even though its latest deal makes it financially secure and it is trading at a discount of 80 percent to its NAV.
They are still foaming about James Parsons, even though he's resigning, and the collapse in the share price, but they never mention the discount.
Even though PVR's CEO has today resigned, raising the possibility of a fresh start, posters there are saying the company is finished.
Of course, it may not recover.
The question is: how do they know?

It seems to be a regular blood sport on AIM and the strange thing is that so many of its practitioners don't actually hold any shares in the company concerned.

'Our investment' ?

Here's what you wrote yesterday:

'Hur was untouchable success after succsess, Dr T the messahi.
Had about 4 bad news stories on the trot now.
Hur needs a partner farmin to be bought by a major to really move forward which is looking less likely IMO . Bye all best of luck

You're STILL invested?
Why?

'You're like someone who finds out your wifes been cheating on you, but you decide to try and make it work, then she does it again and puts you through more agony, but you stay with her because you believe in her, then she does it again but you keep going - "she isn't like that really - she really loves me".'

I think you're missing my point entirely: in this case, the wife did exactly what she promised to do - FIRST OIL and SIX MONTHS' STEADY PRODUCTION.

'One of the most important things for any company to be successful is good management, and after this latest fiasco I have no faith in them at all.'

Incredible!
I honestly cannot see anything wrong with the way this company is being managed - only with the way it is being perceived.

'That's what some of you are suffering from IMHO - it means the indescribable feeling of euphoria when you first begin to fall in love - you're so in love with HUR and what you hope it's future potential can be, that you cannot see any downside at all.'

Nothing could be further from the truth.

I and other LTHs went through agonies, seeing share price slumps to 8.85 p and later, about 24p, when the company desperately needed to raise money.

Now, it's profitable and successful and a child of five could tell you that it's ridiculously cheap and all that counts for nothing in the view of people who measure a company's prospects by looking at its share price.

Great post, Mamms.

You seem to be saying that TOR resigned in order to take the company down with him and that PB is staying on just in order to turn the lights out.

Bye Shuttts and good luck!

You remind me of the posters who warned that we might never get to first oil and then the ones who said it wouldn't last six months.

Now, the worry is that we will be submerged in water.

And always the same constant worry - too much oil.

You said HUR's problem is finding a partner, because it's got so much oil.
You then call it a dead parrot.
You're not credible.

So, you mean 'too much oil'!