Member Info for LONGWAIT

If you're an ex-actuary, Rocklawn, you ought to show some respect for facts and figures.
Apparently, you were outraged that I dared to mention PVR's majority interest in 55 mmboe of assets other than Barryroe, and related facts, which would enable someone interested in the value of company shares to compare the values of PVR and LOGP.
It's strange - is it not? - that when I set out the figures, you reacted by making a sarcastic comment about what 'an incredible brain' I have.
You ought also to be able to react to facts and figures without throwing about insults like 'clown' and 'bull****.'

I don't know whether you intended your last post to be as idiotic as it reads, Rocklawn, but unless you can actually argue with any of my figures or mathematics, would it not be better if you refrained from being so sarcastic?

In particular, what is the similarity between me, having a university degree in mathematics and a correspondingly-high intelligence quotient - which I would not have mentioned but for your sarcastic remark about my brain - and Trump?

What makes you imagine I bear comparison with a politician of all people?

I'm amazed that Rocklawn misunderstood what ALGU was driving at.
The idea that LOGP's share price should be roughly a quarter of PVR's is something I have been using myself as a guide.
PVR do have seven percent more shares, although that does not make much difference.

'there's an assumption that LOGP's SP should be a quarter of PVR's. At present it's slightly less than that.'

I'm amazed that no-one noticed the mistake.
ALGU posted the identical comment with the same time stamp on both PVR and LOGP.
Their mid-prices were recorded as 7.35 and 1.90 respectively.
1.90 is more than a quarter of 7.35, and the offer prices gave a figure of 27 percent.
It was obvious that at 2p to buy, LOGP was too high relative to PVR.
If it were to be a quarter of PVR, then PVR should have been 8p.
Even when PVR had fallen back to 7.3p offer, LOGP was still 2p.

'It doesn't look like there's much value in either company's other asset(s). '

The most recent estimates of PVR's other assets total 55 mmboe, although it has a slightly smaller interest in them than in Barryroe.
The fact that Linn has retained them suggests he intends to do something with them, perhaps somehow in connection with the Barryroe development.
He has also said that PVR is looking out for other opportunities.
My impression is that LOGP is just holding on for a reward from Barryroe.

For these reasons, I would suggest that PVR is worth rather more than four times LOGP and that LOGP would have to be trading at rather less than a quarter of PVR for it to offer better value.

'... human nature again noalchohol mirasol qwerty struggle with that envy is a weakness they should overcome as controlling there visibility some look some see.'

(Tymers)

No offence intended, Tymers, but the only thing you've written that is more incomprehensible than the above quote from your post is your claim that you have been consistently making money by buying UKOG shares.

Most people on LSE are well aware of how difficult it is to make money consistently from AIM oil stocks, but they will not find credible a claim to have consistently made money from a stock that has been falling for almost three years, has during that period had only minor rallies, and is now down by 98 percent.

'...are you just desperate to get in lower?'

(nhawan)

The share price has fallen by 98 percent and has regularly been making new lows for years, and yet you think there are people who are 'desperate' to buy at a lower price?

Thanks, DC, for your kind words.
I don't remember reading about the IC article.
Maybe you have thereby answered Hasiba's question.

'I bought late April where many posters were here saying to dump them!!'
(Hasiba)

Great stuff!
During my six-year stint on the HUR BB, I related the story of an Irish ex-RAF pilot who had never played Baccarat before and didn't even know the playing rules.
He saw a man losing consistently at a casino in Macau and decided to join the game, doing the very opposite of what the unfortunate loser was doing.
The Irishman did very well.

I've seen similar things at SOU, PVR and PMO.
Perhaps the most curious case is PVR ( up from 1p to 3.625p, although not yet out of the woods).
Three regular posters there said that after the CEO's resignation, a replacement would not be found.
They also predicted that a new partner's promised investment would never arrive.
Both predictions turned out to be wrong.
In case you don't know, a poster who has recently converted to the HUR cause predicted that JOG would be bust by July 2020.
When he was making all manner of dire predictions, I was buying JOG shares.
I'm annoyed with myself for not buying some for 50p, but I did pick up three lots for 55p each, plus other lots at higher prices.
It definitely pays to go against the doomsayers when they seem to have become detached from reality.

One of the + votes for your post timed at 17:19 on HUR today was mine, Hasiba.
You're saying what I've been saying and been ridiculed there for saying.
It's a very peculiar BB, where most posters seem to think that there is a 'HUR rule' that its shares cannot go up hundreds of percent, even though it has done so before and even though other oil stocks have done so very recently.
Totally mad.
You ask, 'Any thoughts of the reasons behind the recent surge in SP?
Balanced view please!'
There was a time a few months ago when posters here were wondering when Richard Griffiths would stop selling shares, especially as his persistent selling had driven the price down to a level at which he would be selling shares at a loss.
It was obvious then that he should have been buying again instead of selling.
The last company RNS got people interested.
Whether that alone can explain the rise, I don't know.
May we will get an RNS notifying us of someone having crossed the threshold.
I think HUR's RNSs are habitually so downbeat that they have unintentionally encouraged PIs to part with their holdings.
At least the JOG board is optimistic.

Haven't you done it again, Manyana?

'but that will not fade into the far distance if they use the infrastructure to pump the gas to Cork.'

Don't you mean:

'but that will now fade into the far distance if they use the infrastructure to pump the gas to Cork.' ?

Thanks, PC, for your explanation.
I didn't realise that by 'all the oil ' being there, you meant the exploration upside being included.
The established amount is actually 142m, not 130m, which may necessitate a revised calculation = £145 per share.
I don't think the shares would ever be valued at 50 percent of the prevailing profit per unextracted barrel.
You seem to be assuming, however, that JOG would become producer or joint producer, and hold onto its share of the fields.
In that case, would it not make more sense to estimate its annual profit and then arrive at a reasonable valuation, based on earnings and reserves?

Good point, PC - the very fickleness that sends share prices to ludicrously-low levels can turn into enthusiasm and send them skyward.
I wouldn't worry about a low-ball offer for JOG, as most of the shares are held by institutions and they are not going to be interested in making a fast buck - unlike the day-traders.
I think all the oil does exist, but I don't know how you arrive at £140 per share, unless you envisage JOG becoming a producer.

'RE: SS's Plan
27 Jun 2020 16:18

Price: 0.36
Strong Buy

Swampies can suck on the roots once we gave cut them down! Ukog marching forward onward and upward. Ukog united'

(Tymers)

Did Tymers top slice at 0.54p or 0.44p?
It seems unlikely, if he thought the shares were a strong buy at 0.36p.

There are people on these boards who have no idea about value.
Tommy and I had some exchanges about the HUR BB, where I have stopped posting after six years, having had enough of being insulted and ridiculed there.
Posters there have been competing with one another to see who can paint a worse picture of the company's prospects and valuation.
One poster said that a bid for HUR would be at a premium of 3p to its share price, which shows a total divorce from reality.
SOU shares have risen from 1.3p to 4.5 p in two days, since investors suddenly realised that the prophets of gloom are wrong.
All these companies - HUR, JOG, and SOU, have become seriously-undervalued, but most people just can't see it.

Yes, Vista Man.
Had I averaged down at about 0.20p, when the price seemed to be forming a bottom, I could have got out with my initial investment returned.
The SP trebled in less than two weeks and, naturally, Tymers was saying something along the lines of 'I told you so.'
What he didn't tell anyone was that he had been predicting that the SP would treble when it was 10 times as high and more.
As a few posters - summarily dismissed as trolls and derampers - warned, this may have been a pump and dump exercise, with the SP now having halved yet again.
We shall see.

'Would pmo be interested in taking over Hur at their current rock bottom share price?'

(bfc1)

They wouldn't be able to, even if they wanted to.
I read your comment on the HUR BB, in which you asked how much has really changed since the share price was 44p and the target 95p.

I would say not very much.
Production increased by fifty percent and, even after the recent reduction, is not down by much.
If anyone bid for the company, it would have to be at 44p plus, because no IIs would accept less than that and independent valuations agree with that, especially with a recovering oil price.
The Lincoln/Warwick drilling programme wasn't the failure it has been made out to be, and it's not yet certain that Lincoln Crestal, which flowed at 9,800 bopd, cannot go into production.
In the event that the interference problem is solved, and well 7z can return to production, production levels could actually be higher than the previous high, even without a contribution from LC.
I can no longer write these things on the HUR BB without being targeted as an ignoramus or a ramper, which is why I have stopped posting comments there after six years.

'It looks to be 4 to 5 tankers daily now min. thats about over 850 bopd amazing ...'

Can we please have an RNS confirming that.
THEN congratulations will be in order.

'Brighteye deleted'

Brighteye called me a 'jerk' and accused me of trying to talk UKOG shares down so I could buy them cheaply and offset my HUR losses - a total lie.

He should have been banned for that alone.

'the mm's will play some games throughout today but will make it so the sp finishes today in the 0.40-0.50 + range ready for the next leg up tomorrow, obviously ...'

(jonesrichard)

In spite of being hopelessly wrong - the SP closing at 0.355p, not 0.45p - your comment received +7 votes.
Just about sums up this forum.

Well, Manyana, if even the Shannon project may still go ahead, what does that mean for the know-all poster's prediction (it was more of a statement of certainty than a prediction) that the new government will stop Barryroe?

Remember, the know-all posters predicted that PVR would never get a new CEO, that SpotOn's payments would never be made, and that no-one would ever farm into Barryroe.

Why?

Of course, all lives matter - including those of animals.

I recall a conversation I had with a coloured (mixed-race) South African friend in 2008, in which I asked him whether he wasn't worried that what had happened to the Whites in Zimbabwe might be starting to happen in South Africa, but he dismissed the idea as scaremongering.

I also recall Zimbabwean students in my history class expressing delight that majority rule had arrived (provisionally power-sharing) in Rhodesia - a prelude to genocide of both Blacks and Whites and famine.

I don't hear any regret from the Left.
In their view, famine and genocide under majority rule is better than everyone having enough to eat and no genocide under minority rule.

I beg to differ.

Under the banner of justice, the supposedly-anti-nationalist Left promotes nationalist movements that bring ruin on the peoples they are intended to liberate - the Gaza Strip being another case in point.

Where are the posters who were predicting further price falls after the share price had bottomed at 10p?