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Happy New Year and welcome back, DB!

If JOG retained 70 percent, that would be worth nearly £24 per share, but even 50 percent would be worth £17 per share.

Remember the expert poster who predicted that the share price would fall shortly to £0.50?

Where is he?

Unless I am missing something, the tax losses are worth only a fraction of that amount to the new company, although still a lot of money.

In order for a tax loss of $4 bn to be worth $4bn to the new company, there would have to be a tax rate of 100 percent!

Just in case any newbies are inclined to believe anything Tymers writes here:

He claimed that he invested about £21,250 in UKOG on 24 July 2018, by buying a million shares, but then claimed he sold 1.5 million shares at a profit the following day, even though the price had gone down.

On 3 August, he wrote: 'we are heading to 11p'
On 17 August, he suggested slicing at 3.5p or 5.0p.
On 29 August, he predicted a share price of 10p.
13 months later, he was predicting 8p, 'this side of Xmas' and then, at the end of October, 'Over 8p for sure once results issued'.
He dismissed anyone who expressed a contrary views as a swampy, troll, deramper or scum.

Very interesting, DU, although I thought you were going to say that DS thought that Arden's valuation was too low, not (as it seems) too high.
I agree with you that, although almost everyone on LSE expects fast results, it takes several years to achieve them.
That may partly explain the wild gyrations in prices: e.g. JOG up from 30 to 399, down to about 60, up to about 250, down to about 50, and now up to 128.
Some posters have said that JOG would never secure a farm-in and the share price (naturally, after it had collapsed) proved it.
I read the same things about PVR, which had collapsed from about 800p to 1p, but the terms of its farm out are now being finalised - after about an eight year wait.
The interesting thing is that as JOG's exploration prospects get better and better, the share price rises gently, recovering some lost ground, as though the market does not quite believe it (which, according to some members, means something must be wrong).
JOG must have a reasonable chance of proving total recoverable reserves of 200 mmboe.
If they can then start getting them out of the ground, those valuations - and analysts - could look rather foolish.

DU's £42 figure was actually JOG's valuation without any farm out, so for example if the farm out was of 50 percent, then JOG would be worth £21 per share.
I think possibly he was joking about a £42 share price, although it's not impossible.
I think Robinson has mistaken Arden's valuation of £7.66 per share for a target price, which in any case is meaningless (i.e. the latter is).
I notice that whoever predicted a share price of 50p has gone quiet, just like the member who wrote, 'Mark my words, PMO shares will be 5p' (they are 22p) and the poster who was quite definite that HUR would shortly be 1p (it's now 4p).

' Imo trying to time the market is a folly.'

(legache)

I have overpaid too many times in the past.

With SDX, I started buying at less than 17p.
Buying at about 70p, as some may have done, is just asking for trouble on AIM.

One really needs to start buying after a big correction.

Thanks, ALGU.

' House broker Arden has a risked value of US$238m (766p a share) on the company, based on a retained 70 per cent retained interest in Buchan, Verbier, J2 and Glenn post farm-out and using a long-term Brent Crude price of US$65 a barrel and NBP Gas Price of 48p a therm.'

Isn't 766p per share rather low, based on 70 percent retained interest and Brent at $65?

'I think if we hadn't all been here for years and underwater we'd likely be looking at this company as a bargain.'

(shakeypremis)

I've made a similar point repeatedly about AIM oil stocks.
Many people, even when they haven't invested in a stock, decide that the 'share' is no good because it has collapsed.
A value investor looks at the company and if it has good prospects and a low valuation, he buys.
Here on LSE, investors dismiss the same company as a loser.

There is no guarantee that a company whose share price is low when you buy its shares won't go bust, but provided it is profitable, the odds are in the investor's favour.

Many AIM members have bought when the price has already rocketed and, consequently, the odds are not in their favour.
When the price then collapses, they then conclude that the company was rubbish and AIM companies are all rubbish.

They are missing opportunities because they bought when they should have waited.

'Well PS the market doth thinks (sic) differently...'

(Bronxville)

It is a remarkable fact that so many LSE members cite 'the market' as if it were an oracle, but ONLY when a share price falls sharply.

E.g. the poster who commented that the JOG share price indicated that the market didn't 'believe' that JOG would 'ever get the oil out of the ground' but somehow, whenever the share price soared failed to say that the market indeed 'believed' that it would.

The market evidently had confidence in TOR, which is why it ran the shares up to 18p, in anticipation of a deal.
What does that tell you, other than that the market knows no more than you or I?

Having sold his entire holding, rangers4 wrote:

' i honestly believe barryroe now will never be developed ...'

I think all of us had our doubts, when first APEC's money repeatedly failed to materialise and then PVR had to raise cash just to keep going.

Some of us said that we still thought Barryroe could be developed.

Recent developments suggest that we are going to be proven right.

Rangers4 'now believes' what he has long believed - that it will all end in tears.

What is not clear is why, having predicted that no replacement CEO would be found, that payments from SpotOn would not arrive, and that no farm out would be agreed, and having been proven wrong on all three counts, he now declares that he has 'now' decided that Barryroe won't be developed and that he has sold his PVR shares, which he describes as 'poxy.'

This seems like a very strange stage at which to give up in disgust.

'Better investment opportunities out there instead of sinking hard earned into this share which is going nowhere for at least a year or so.'

(rangers4)

In that case, why are almost all your posted comments about PVR?

Why aren't you posting comments on the pages provided for commenting on those other companies which, you imply, are of much more interest to you?

looks as though it may have bottomed.

'Just filter them out along with that other deramper Starbucks...'

(Flombo10)

Starbucks posted the identical comment on PVR at 17:06 and, one minute later, at 17:07, on LOGP.

You will notice that when the share prices of these two companies recover, these obsessive derampers will go quiet again, like vultures with no prey available.

Anyone can check the profiles of these last two posters, EAS10 and rangers4.
Unless I'm mistaken, rangers4 was the leading doomster, predicting no replacement CEO, no subscription from SpotOn and no farm out.

He has posted 14 times during the last month, and all on PVR and LOGP.

EAS10 has posted 25 during the past month, all on PVR and LOGP.

Why?

'It's very impressive that you can look back at certain shares that have since gone up and tell us that you said "this or that" at the time.'

(EAS10)

I think you're distorting what I said completely.
I didn't say that I said anything at the time.
I was citing what doomster posters said at the time and how every one of them has been proven wrong.

As you may have guessed, mcco, I posted my last comment before noticing yours.

Anyone who has been following AIM shares for years knows that it is not a rational place.
Just take a look at the relative prices of PVR and LOGP.
Either PVR should be much higher or LOGP much lower.

That suggests that prices do not fully reflect reality.

Three out of the last four posts have been negative.

It seems those three don't believe there really is a farm-out deal, but would they have written such negative comments if the share price had risen?
I think not.

If the price falls further, say to 2p, this week, will they see it as a fantastic opportunity to buy?
Of course not; they will take it as confirmation that there is no real farm out.

A few weeks ago, after AYM announced great news, the SP halved rapidly and I bought very near the bottom.
It is now up 160 percent.

I didn't take the view that, because of the share price fall, the great news must be fake news.

When PVR shares could have been bought for 1p, we had posters crowing that the company was going bust, but they went to 8p instead.
They predicted that a quality replacement for TOR as CEO would not be found, that SpotOn's promised subscription would never arrive, and that no farm out would materialise.
They even said that the consortium didn't exist.

I've seen this all before.
One poster recently repeatedly predicted that PMO would fall to 10p and lower, while another predicted 5p.
Instead, it reached the 20s.

Only a few weeks ago, there were members predicting sub-70p and even 50p for JOG, but instead it's in the 120s.

By the way, I bought more PVR today.

I would just add that neither PS nor I thought that PVR would be able to retain a 50 percent interest on behalf of itself and LOGP.

It just shows how pointless such speculation is and what a good position both companies are now in.