Member Info for LONGWAIT

I've been saying that you have to patient when a farminee is required and that most people gave up during the eight year wait at PVR.

Here's the latest development there:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MWAP80/status/1358350934091431941

The taste of things to come at JOG?

One of the arguments I have seen here repeatedly over the years is that if there were any oil worth extracting from Barryroe, a major would long ago have made a move.

I suppose that by similar reasoning, one would arrive at the conclusion that there is nothing worth extracting from the Bentley oil field either.

I think the lowest price I ever paid for PVR shares was 2.68p and they were 4.2p to buy just a couple of weeks ago, presumably because so many people believed the nonsense scare stories.

I just wish I'd bought a ton at 1p.

My comments were not directed at you, aspers.

I was just responding to ABD1's comments.

LSE is infested with doomsters trying to get everyone to sell.

Two of my other holdings are in companies predicted by LSE members to go bust by July and September of last year respectively.

Many members say things like, 'You will thank me for saving you money [if you take my advice and sell now]' or 'I'll he back to tell you 'I told you so!''

Some such members have been banned, while others quietly move their attention to other companies, hoping that no-one will remember their nonsense.

Of course, in the event that the downtrend continues, they are crowing.

Playing around with your figures, PC, I arrived at the following fantasy calculations.

At 50 kbopd, the oil could be extracted in ten years.
At 100 kbopd, the oil could be extracted in five years.
If JOG gives away 50 percent and retains its remaining interest until the end, then its pre-tax income would amount to £116 per share in 5-10 years.
That's based on your estimate of about $60 per barrel.
Obviously, something could go wrong and it might not be possible to extract it all, but it does show that becoming a producer could be extraordinarily profitable.

Playing around with your figures, PC, I arrived at the following fantasy calculations.

At 50 kbopd, the oil could be extracted in ten years.
At 100 kbopd, the oil could be extracted in five years.
If JOG give away 50 percent and retain

As I said, PC, one has to be patient, and the market - which presumably approximates to the private investors whose typification appears to be the kind of people who inhabit LSE - obviously has no patience.
It took PVR eight years to get a farm out and that is dependent on approval by an unsympathetic government department, a problem JOG surely will not have to face.
As for the possibility that no-one will be interested: the world's human population is unfortunately still growing and it will need more and more oil, which is not being extracted.
Eventually, resources such as JOG's will be considered to be very valuable.
Consider what will happen if such resources are simply discarded in the absence of any replacement fuel.
It's almost incredible that governments are leaving it to the free market to resolve this problem.
That's what makes me think the price of oil could rocket in the coming years.

' I am really getting tired and disillusioned with Chariot.'

(Archiepants)

The share price fall, which I suspect is to a great extent the cause of your disillusionment, is typical of AIM.
The cause of the fall is, I suspect, the fickleness of AIM speculators, who don't believe in the prospects of a single company here, and believe share prices must collapse, a belief they seem to be expert at fulfilling.
They get out, even if it means taking tiny profits on the last tranche, because they are interested only in share prices, not in companies.
They don't even refer to companies as such; they see them only as shares, and if a share price doesn't rise as anticipated, they say there must be something wrong with the 'share.'

There is just one thing wrong with your article, Mamms, and that is that today's 'news' was entirely expected.

In fact, it isn't really news, but merely confirmation of what was already known.

Everything that has happened so far with SpotOn and the consortium took place in the knowledge that this development was likely to happen.

That means that they were confident that the money could be raised.

'it was 10p ...'

It was in fact 14p to buy and members were salivating.
That was a sell signal.

500p before is equivalent to about 313p now, which means the SP has actually risen slightly.

Where are the posters who confidently predicted 100p per share?

Yes, DU.
I half expected someone to point out the fact that there was a considerable addition of shares following the peak of 399p in October 2017.
I was going to add that Google changed the peak to 291.5p following the issue of new shares [(3.99 x 10) + (2 x 12)] / (10 +12) = 2.91], although they seem to have calculated the low incorrectly (it was about 30p before the cash raise).
Your estimate of the highest market capitalisation being £40m accords with my recollection that the high was 399p, rather than the 350p closing price you cite.
I can see, though, that your comparison of market capitalisation now and then gives a less favourable picture than the Google recalculation of the high.
I'm sure, however, that you will agree with me that in spite of the dilution, JOG is in a far stronger position now and just needs a farm out for the previous high - however one calculates it - to be overtaken.
The question, I suppose, is whether there will be any furthermore dilution before that day comes.

According to Malcy, JOG has 172 mmboe.
The share price was 399p when they had only a confirmed amount of 25 mmboe, and even then they had only an 18 percentage interest in it.
Does anyone still remember TriggersaysDave (now ItsallRigged), who predicted a share price in the low 30s, a rescue placing in the 40s, and that JOG would be bust by July 2020?
He said, 'This company is knackered and will die to the usual dilution, fall and rinse and repeat.'
He accused me of 'sucking people in and losing them money' and of being 'a paid ramper who would rob his own granny given half a chance.'
I admit I did say that at about 50p I thought JOG shares were a bargain and I still think so.
Here's what bones698 said about JOG on advfn on 5 October 2020:
'... the management ... are delivering nothing but failure... this will be back to 60p in the next few months ... the assets are worthless...'
I recall a poster here saying with satisfaction last year that the market was indicating that it didn't believe JOG would ever get any oil out of the ground.
I am awaiting DU's latest valuation.
I make it almost £48 per share (before reduction according to the terms of a farm-out), but I don't know whether that includes the gas to which Malcy refers today.
Yes, Duster: a farmout may not happen this year.
It took eight years for a farm out to be realised at PVR, and when it finally happened it came from Norway.
All your equivalents on PVR predicted it would never happen and that PVR would go bust.

LOGP and PVR are up seven and eight times from their lows.

CHAR recently rose nearly tenfold - from 1.36 to 14p offer.
AYM recently rose from 1p to 10p.

Anyone who knows anything about the history of the stock market knows about recovery stocks.
There is a long history of stocks whose share prices collapsed - by as much as 99 percent - but then recovered by many hundreds of percent.
Every stock on AIM that has collapsed attracts know-all posters who try to convince other members that that stock will not recover and that either the company's directors are conning the shareholders or everyone who says the company will recover is a liar or a ramper.
If you take notice and sell your shares at rock bottom prices and they then soar, what recompense do you think the know-all posters will offer you?

The performance of this share price provides confirmation - if it were needed - that AIM is irrational.

It seems that the price always collapses on excellent news.

I agree.

There has been one delay after another and it seems as though the finishing post never gets any closer.

A similar thing happened with PVR: the share price fell from about 800p to 0.8p and there was no shortage of know-all posters predicting that the company would go bust because, allegedly, no-one was interested in its assets and if anyone were going to develop them, they would have done it long ago, etc.

PVR now have a farm-out and a plan to develop a minimum of 311 mmboe.

It took 12 years for them to get it farmed out, during which posters accused the management of being crook and liars, alleged that the oil didn't exist, and rubbished every single encouraging report.

It's normal on LSE.

The price slumped from about 2.75 to 1.45 after the last upgrade and I bought just before it bottomed.

I've given up trying to make sense of such moves, except that they presumably reflect the fact that most transactions in
these stocks seem to be trades rather than investment decisions.

I simply try to discipline myself to buy in such situations and ignore the doomsters who insist that the market is always right - but only when prices slump.