Member Info for LONGWAIT

I don't understand why more posters don't pay more attention to what the SP chart is telling them. After posters here announced confidently that the SP had bottomed at 13.5, the uncertainties about the company had disappeared and the SP could only rise, I stated correctly that the SP had met resistance at 20 and the question then was: would 13.5 hold? No-one commented in response. When 13.5 didn't hold, the SP went into freefall. How on earth can you know where the bottom is now?

I agree with your analysis and would add that, even taking account of expected lower earnings this year, the p/e is very low and, after increased production, could go much lower. But if oil prices stay low and sentiment remains bad, share price could take years to take off. The important thing, I think, is that the SP should show signs of bottoming. The longer it holds, without making new lows, the more confident one can be that additional investments will pay off handsomely in the long run.

I just wonder why you suddenly stopped posting on the Providence Resources thread...

I paid >25 for most of my holding, so a T/O @ 30 would be a big disappointment!

The biggest return to shareholders would, IMHO, come in the absence of a bid.

Good point, but according to the article they restricted flow for the sake of the longevity of the well. If they have plenty of other successes, that will be fine, but it seems a shame to have to restrict production when that's the only well yet producing.

The figure I remembered was 300-400 bopd. On reading the article below now, I see that that was the figure for the expected output, whereas the flow rate was 1300. http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/73459/northern-petroleum-sees-outstanding-oil-flows-from-new-well-at-keg-river-73459.html

The thing that bothered me about KB was that he described the 300 bopd result as 'phenomenal'. It was okay, but nothing to get excited about, especially as it was short of what he had predicted. Posters here then announced confidently that the SP had finally bottomed and was taking off. I pointed out that the SP had reached resistance at 20 and could make new lows. The silence since from those posters has been deafening. Hope things turn out well, but, with the OP situation, some truly phenomenal news would be required.

whether KB will buy more shares if the SP halves again (bought at 31 and 16)? New record low today...

As I said before, the SP met resistance at 20p and then the question was whether support at 13.5p would hold. I agree about the OP and if it falls to $50, NOP could fall to 10p or even lower. You could be right about prospects, but even if KB's predictions bear fruit, it is going to take years to get to 3000 bopd. Looks like a longish haul.

http://nawaat.org/portail/2014/09/09/el-mediouni-well-mahdia-oilfield-a-circle-oils-phenomenal-discovery/

But has the political risk increased since the recent discoveries of oil & gas? How profitable would the company have to be to be accorded a re-rating?

Seems you're not alone in thinking so. If LSE's figs. are correct, buyers outnumber sellers by 2-1, yet the price has fallen by nearly 13% today. How can you explain that? A rigged market?

This company is profitable; on a P/E ratio of four; is due payments from the Egyptian State equal to 3p per share; has made an oil find which could boost profits considerably; has found gas... yet the price seems to have gone into free-fall.

No-one will buy an NOP share now, if the LSE figures are reliable.

TER: What's your favorite oil junior in Africa north of the Sahara? AD: We don't have many holdings in North Africa because this region has been fairly unstable and risky since the Arab Spring, but we have held Circle Oil Plc (COP:AIM) for a long time, from before the turmoil began. Circle's primary operations are in Egypt, but it has suffered no disruptions. The company had no problems sourcing supplies or equipment, and none of its employees fled or left the company. Its only difficulty has been that because it sells oil to the Egyptian General Petroleum Corp. (EGPC), Egypt's national oil company, its receivables increased dramatically. EGPC wasn't paying its bills on time, but this has changed dramatically in the last year. Circle also has growing production in Morocco and an almost 100% drilling success rate, with a large number of low-risk prospects there. Most recently, it has had an attractive discovery off the shore of Tunisia. It's early days, but the company has estimated an initial find of up to 100 MMbbl. This could be the most significant discovery from offshore Tunisia in recent years. For a junior, it is a phenomenal result. TER: Is Circle undervalued? AD: Its current market cap is $152M, and it produces about 6,700 bbl per day. This equates to approximately 6 pence per share of cash flow per annum, but its share price is only 17 pence. Circle trades barely above 2x cash flow from its Egyptian and Moroccan production alone. This is a viable, growing company with significant cash flow and profits that account for most of the share price with a potentially huge bonus from Tunisia, which is currently ignored by the market. Should the Tunisian discovery require a large investment to take it to production, Circle could easily farm it out to another company or do a joint venture with a larger company.

Thanks for the update Jazbo. I think the total amount owed to Circle, made up mostly of arrears, is worth just over three pence a share - not a lot, but about 20% of the mkt cap now! Should at least limit the SP downside, if the SP hasn't already bottomed out.

has finally met with resistance. Now let's see whether 13.50 holds...

You're valuing it at just 50 per cent more than the current share price, bullboyjg?

You mean 75% disc to NAV? 200 or 300 & disc to NAV?? You can't have a bigger disc than 100%!