Member Info for LONGWAIT

Here's one of the reports of Bernstein's remarks to which you refer: https://thorolddewling.com/activist-investor-sees-17bn-potential-in-north-sea-explorer/

Never mind your candles, Boyzee! When the price takes off, it will blow your candles clean out. Recently, JOG jumped from 60 to 400 and SQZ trebled, both on good news. Those moves weren't predicted by candles...

If the share price goes above �1, Haggis, I won't need nerves of steel any more. We'll be on course for �2, �3 ...

I think parts could be sold off.

As I've said before, I don't think there will be a bid for the whole company.

Has anyone ever estimated what the possible 13.6 TCF at Newgrange could be worth to PVR, assuming say it kept a 40 pc interest after a farm-out ?

Has anyone ever estimated what the possible 13.6 TCF at Newgrange could be worth to PVR, assuming say it kept a 40 pc interest after a farm-out ?

I agree with you, ALGU. Some people are talking as though the farm-out is sure to fail. I also recall some posters blaming TOR for the failure of the Druid and Drombeg drills. At least with Barryroe, we know the oil is there, and that is why the Chinese are interested.

You mean no-one believes the farm-out really exists? Jimmy thinks the Chinese could be interested in Spanish Point. If that is framed out, Avalon and Newgrange are drilled and the drills are successful, would you change your opinion?

I read somewhere about a 75 % chance of Barryroe being a success, not of the deal being confirmed. Jimmy reckons it is very unlikely that the Chinese would walk away after one Well will have been drilled, and I agree with him.

Thanks, Battle. Will Newgrange be next?

A generous doff of the cap in the direction of Tony O�Reilly and Providence Resources is in order. The company finally landed a partner � a consortium of Chinese interests � to complete the appraisal of its Barryroe field off Kinsale, Co Cork. After much hullabaloo � and shareholder pain � a three-well programme should determine whether there is enough oil to drag ashore. While pitched as the great black hope of local offshore exploration, Barryroe�s waxy reserve has never been a sure thing. Esso first drilled there in the black gold rush of the 1970s. Modern production technology and the rising price of oil � or poo, as the oil watchers call it � nudged a marginal field toward commerciality. When the poo sank,�

You know, Grant, you remind me of some of the posters on HUR who have written off the company because something COULD go wrong. Something COULD go wrong: e.g. I could fall under a bus... ... or TOR could fall under a bus... The former definitely would ruin my chances, although I am not sure the latter would affect my investment. Of course, I hope neither happens and, in any case, the chances of TOR getting near a bus on the salary we pay him are remote. To be serious, though, what if nothing goes wrong?

Jimmy reckons (and it's a complicated calculation) that PVR is worth �1.65 per share.

You're assuming, Chef, that PVR remains its 40 percent stake and gets revenue from production instead of a one-off capital gain. That seems to me to be the better bet. It means that if the company were valued at ten times annual earnings, the share price would be 10 x the current price.

Latest estimates put Barryroe�s recoverable oil resources at 346m barrels. The deal marks Providence�s fourth farm-out agreement in the last 12 months and the company said it is progressing with efforts to find development partners for other assets. Indeed, future deals could also include APEC, with its chairman Colin Lui saying the parties have also agreed to �jointly investigate further opportunities in other licensed blocks offshore Ireland in the future�. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- There's still plenty to play for. I'm not sure the share price s about to take off, but if Barryroe, Avalon and Newgrange are finally developed and the oil price holds up, I would be surprised if the share price were not at least ten times its present value in a few years' time.

Jimmy thinks the deal will be approved.

I wouldn't take London South East (not to be confused with London Stock Exchange) 's closing prices at face value. The closing offer price was 11.0, not 9.5. Hope you are slightly less shocked now!

Thanks, Charlie. I had been checking today, hoping for a post from Jimmy. He reckons the deal is worth at least 45p per share to PVR. If it turns out that Barryroe contains much more oil than so far estimated, then that valuation could be very conservative. I wonder whether this deal could have implications for Newgrange or Avalon?

Reading the comments by Malcy and some of the posters, you would think that the farm-out deal has not materially improved PVR's prospects. Can it really be that bad?