Member Info for longinthetooth1

But share price no change or is that the crazy spread 😂

Ignorance is bliss eh kid

Who are you anyway?? 🤣

Not one single post from all the experts here highlighted the considerable risks ai uncovered in the upcoming elections in June

Beyeeee for now

The "Bottom Line" for 2026

The consensus among regional analysts is that the period from April to August 2026 will be the most volatile. For KEFI, the main threat is not necessarily the destruction of the mine, but the loss of momentum due to logistical bottlenecks and a nervous stock market.!

I suggest some here read what I'm posting it could save a lot of heartache in coming months!!!!

Not guesswork

Not pumping

Not deramping!!!

FACTS!!!!

Election-related risks is difficult because political situations are fluid. However, based on recent 2026 risk reports from groups like Africa Practice and ACLED, we can categorize the risks into three specific buckets:

1. The Likelihood of Civil Unrest

Most analysts view the "chance" of unrest during the June 2026 election as high, but with a crucial nuance:

• Regional Specificity: The risk isn't uniform. KEFI’s Tulu Kapi project is in the West Wollega Zone of Oromia. This specific area has seen an 8-year insurgency by the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). 

• "Recast" Violence: Experts suggest that rather than a new uprising caused by the election, existing conflicts in Oromia and Amhara will likely be "recast" or intensified as political actors use the election as a leverage point. 

• Percentage Estimates: While formal "odds" aren't public, risk consultancies often place Ethiopia in a "High Risk" (60–80%) category for localized political violence during transition periods.

2. Direct Impact on KEFI Operations

The risk of an uprising affecting KEFI specifically generally falls into three categories:

• Supply Chain Disruption (Medium-High Risk): The most immediate threat is the blocking of transport corridors. If road access between Addis Ababa and the Tulu Kapi site is severed due to election protests or militia activity, construction—which is slated to be in full swing by mid-2026—could grind to a halt.

• Administrative Delays (High Risk): Regardless of violence, "bureaucratic paralysis" is almost certain. The government will be focused on the election, meaning any signatures required for customs clearances, work permits, or secondary licenses may be delayed by 3–6 months.

• Physical Security (Low-Medium Risk): KEFI has spent years fortifying its site and coordinating with local security. Large-scale mining projects are generally "hard targets" that insurgent groups often avoid to prevent full-scale military retaliation, though "nuisance" attacks on infrastructure (like power lines) remain a possibility.

3. Investor Sentiment (The "Kathy" vs. "KEFI" Factor)

In the stock market, perception often outweighs reality.

• Market De-risking: Even if the mine site remains perfectly peaceful, the news of unrest in Addis Ababa or other regions typically causes international investors to sell off shares in companies with heavy Ethiopian exposure.

• Valuation Gap: This often leads to a "valuation gap" where KEFI's stock price might drop despite the gold still being in the ground and the project being technically on track.

Investing in a company like KEFI Gold and Copper (often referred to as KEFI) during an election year in Ethiopia involves a unique set of risks and opportunities. The next general election is scheduled for June 1, 2026. 

As an AI, I don’t provide financial advice, but I can help you weigh the factors that institutional investors typically look at when a major mining project intersects with national politics.

1. Project Timeline vs. Election Cycle

KEFI’s flagship asset is the Tulu Kapi Gold Project. As of early 2026, the project has reached a critical "launch" phase. 

• The Schedule: KEFI has secured a $340 million financing package and is moving toward major construction in 2026, with commissioning expected in late 2027 and first production in 2028. 

• The Risk: Elections often cause "administrative paralysis." In the months leading up to June 2026, government officials may be focused on campaigning rather than processing permits or finalising infrastructure links (like power and roads) that KEFI needs.

2. Government Partnership

A key detail for KEFI is its close relationship with the current administration.

• Public-Private Synergy: The Ethiopian government and its sovereign funds are actual partners in the Tulu Kapi project, having committed roughly $20 million in equity. 

• Continuity: If the current government remains in power, this partnership likely ensures continued support. However, elections always introduce the risk of "resource nationalism"—where a new or pressured government might seek to renegotiate contracts or increase taxes to fund social programs.

3. Regional Stability & Security

The Tulu Kapi mine is located in the Oromia region. 

• Election Volatility: Historically, elections in Ethiopia have been flashpoints for civil unrest or regional protests. Since mining projects are fixed, physical assets, they are vulnerable to logistics disruptions if roads are blocked or if security personnel are redeployed to cities for election monitoring.

• Recent Gains: The company has already completed major "early works," including security camps and community resettlement, which suggests a level of local integration that may act as a buffer against national-level volatility. 

4. Economic Reform and Currency

The Ethiopian government has been liberalizing its economy to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). 

• The Benefit: Reforms allow mining companies to hold offshore accounts, which is vital for KEFI to service its $240 million in debt. 

• The Election Factor: Politicians often pause painful economic reforms (like currency devaluation) before an election to avoid public anger. Any delay in these reforms could affect the "closing" of KEFI's final funding tranches in early 2026.

Elections in June don't forget could see flash points and unrest

If there's one thing ai teaches you regarding investing is to remove sentimental bias investing

Having researched this more the risk associated with Ethiopia are too great.

That in a nutshell is why Buffet Bexos or Musk aren't digging out a few hundred million from behind the sofa AND neither are Barrick Newmont Rio Tinto Ect 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

Eric a shop is veeeerrrryyhy different to a gold mine with gold

But interesting

However carrefour only going frsnchise!!!!

Wouldn't make a jot of difference in a civil unrest situation but would be fire for KEFI

Far better risk reward Panthera PAT

I'll put my trust in LAW more than Ethiopia any day

These are all high risk plays

So as soon as first pour happens Ethiopia will raise taxes. Then it won't be Harry raiding the piggy bank and holding out the begging bowl.

INVESTORS WILL BE FACING A FAR MORE SERIOUS DILEMA

PAY THE TAXES OR ETHIOPIA TAKES EVERYTHING! And Trump won't come to the rescue here they still have a couple of black hawks down

So your basically talking to yourself 😂😂😂😂😂😂

Yes a thorough thoughtful post

BUT FACTORS IN ZERO RISK'

Goodness gracious me every savvy investor should factor risk into their strategy especially since this is Ethiopia!

I was only ever going to invest for another year or so as soon as I factored in the risks ....... nah I sold!

Oh and Harry I'm sure has a tidy pension his old now he won't be around much longer in my opinion. I don't wish ill health on ANYONE not like trump or putin

But he has had his fill thanks to long suffering private investors

My advice to PI's demand a special dividend now!!!!!

Stay grounded lads have fun and good luck

I think this has a lot of heartache and turmoil still to come!

Imagine those tribes and vigilantes watching the gold be poured!

It would be sooo tempting for them to try and steal some of it for weapons and to fund their aspirations!

Glad I'm out this clearly isn't 5p today becuase there's STILL SO MUCH RISK

Do it looks like things are happening BUT what could spoil the party in coming years! Number 1 is Ethiopia raises taxes and basically takes ALL the profit and THAT IS THE SOLE REASON this hasn't performed byyyyyeeeeee for now!

As of January 2026, Ethiopia is in a "fragile holding pattern." The country is not in a state of total war, but it is far from stable. For an investor in a project like KEFI, the environment is defined by three overlapping layers of risk: internal insurgencies, a looming election, and a potential border war.

Here is the current breakdown of the stability and the "flare-up" potential:

1. Internal Flare-ups (Amhara and Oromia)

The government is currently fighting two major "shadow wars" that directly impact infrastructure and safety: 

• The Fano Insurgency (Amhara): This is a serious conflict in the region where KEFI’s Tulu Kapi project is located. Fano militias have captured several small towns over the last year, and the federal government often uses drone strikes to push them back. 

• The OLA (Oromia): The Oromo Liberation Army has been fighting for eight years. They specialize in "hit-and-run" tactics and kidnappings for ransom, which makes road travel for mining equipment extremely dangerous. 

• The Risk: Even if the mine site itself is secure, the supply lines (fuel, chemicals, and food) are frequently cut off by these groups.

2. The 2026 Election Trigger

Ethiopia is scheduled to hold a general election in June 2026. 

• The Scenario: Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is framing this as a sign of "recovery," but analysts warn it could be a massive flashpoint. In Ethiopia, elections often lead to heightened ethnic rhetoric and protests. 

• The Risk: If the election is seen as unfair, it could trigger a "multi-front escalation"—essentially a nationwide uprising that could freeze all foreign-owned business operations.

3. The "Sea Access" War with Eritrea

This is the biggest "Black Swan" risk for 2026. Ethiopia is landlocked and desperate for its own port. 

• The Situation: Relations with Eritrea have hit a decade-low. Both countries have moved heavy troops to the border. Ethiopia has hinted at "correcting the mistake" of being landlocked, which Eritrea views as a threat of invasion. 

• The Risk: A conventional war with Eritrea would bankrupt the Ethiopian state and likely lead to the nationalization of gold resources to fund the military.

Realistic Summary: The "Vigilante" vs. "State" Risk

To answer your specific concerns about the mine:

The "KEFI" Reality Check

The reason KEFI's share price hasn't already exploded (despite having gold in the ground) is that the market is "pricing in" these exact fears. You aren't just betting on gold; you are betting that the Ethiopian state can survive until 2041 without a total collapse.

When I go to an independent financial advisor

THE FIRST THING THEY DO

Is show you their past performances and compare to others

THEN THEY SAY of course past performances don't reflect future performances

Their little get out clause!

Every single sophisticated investor or institution use past performance as a base from which to judge how future investments may go. They also REWARD their loyal investors

Something KEFI NEVER DOES!

Why no special dividend for pi's who have filled Harry and chums bank accounts for decades by giving their money for his promises

Sham I'm sorry and today's SP reflects why Elon Musk Jeff Bezos warren buffet are not buying 😜😂

Yeah exactly assuming all risks mitigated

I can say this at sometime in the next 15 there will be lots more wars in Ethiopia

Simply becuase global warming and the burden that will have on civilians

So chucking £1000 in KEFI today could be anywhere from

£50 to £25k in 15 years

My gut feeling

£1000 lol 😂

What will £1,000 be worth in 15 years?

Scenario

Estimated Value

(2041)

The Bull Case

£15,000 - £25,000

The Realistic Case

£2,000 - £4,000

↓

The Bear Case

Ask Gemini

+

0이

£0 - £50

For context and anyone can ask what it likes but asking if investing £1000 today this is what ai says

Investing £1,000 in a junior miner like KEFI Gold and Copper (LSE: KEFI) today is significantly different from investing 15 years ago, but it remains a "high-stakes" play.

As of January 2026, KEFI is in a much stronger position than it has been in a decade, but the risks you mentioned are the exact reasons the stock trades at such a low valuation (~1.3p).

Here is a realistic, balanced view of the next 15 years:

1. Will the mine even be built?

Status: Highly likely, but delayed.

As of late 2025/early 2026, KEFI finally secured its $340 million financing package for the Tulu Kapi project. Early works have started, and full-scale production is slated for 2028.

• The 15-year view: By 2041, the mine would ideally be in its "mature" phase. Most gold mines have a 10–15 year lifespan, so by then, KEFI would either be closing Tulu Kapi or (more likely) have expanded into its other assets in Saudi Arabia.

2. Risk of Civil War and Regional Instability

Status: Constant "Yellow-to-Red" alert.

Ethiopia has faced significant internal strife (Tigray, Amhara, and Oromo regions). While the 2022 peace deal helped, 2026 reports suggest rising tensions on the Eritrean border.

• Realistic View: A full-scale national collapse is the "zero" scenario for your investment. However, most mining projects in Africa operate as "fortress" sites. They are vital for the government’s foreign currency, so they often receive special federal military protection even during periods of unrest.

3. Will the country nationalize the gold?

Status: Unlikely, but "Economic Nationalization" is a risk.

Ethiopia is desperate for US dollars to stabilize its crashing currency (the Birr). Outright seizing a mine usually scares away all future investment (which they need).

• The "Soft" Nationalization: Instead of seizing the mine, the government may hike taxes, increase their "free carry" equity stake, or force the company to sell gold to the Central Bank at a discount. This wouldn't make your shares worth £0, but it would cap your profits.

4. Will the mine be attacked by vigilantes?

Status: A localized, manageable risk.

Security at Tulu Kapi includes both private contractors and government forces. The bigger risk isn't "vigilantes" (militias) destroying the mine, but rather disrupting the supply lines. If the roads are blocked, the mine can't get fuel or equipment, and production stops, causing the share price to tank.