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Timster, most likely no financial info indeed. It's Science Day, not a business update... agree

However CC did mention on X that any updates to be shared at Science Day would be shared in the morning for others as well. So I do expect a RNS based on that signposting.

Potentially, this update could include an update on AVA6K Phase 2 trial design. It's a fact we will not go at this alone, therefore an update on Phase 2 trial design should include an update on a partnership. Which in turn will have an impact on SP.

No financial news, but material business news that will have an impact. Obviously, all speculation and potentially wishful thinking

Happy you still got more in today WF. Despite what you're calling me.

I did expect the SP to run up more pre SD. Therefore no excuses for those who are not fully in at this stage. You snooze you lose

I mean... it's not like you didn't have the opportunity before to top up. The day we expect a rise pre Science Day is not great timing imo

Thanks Timster,

I agree with the logic that based on the 'fact' that only 1 patient has been dosed, there should not be panic from that if the release mechanism wasn't working as expected. Logically, that takes away the negative scenario that the indications are being added because it's not working. Aligned

To jump to conclusion that they are seeing early signs of efficacy and therefore adding indications is a stretch and wishful thinking based on the data / info that we have. So that's pure speculation without any support

Great to see this development regardless, awaiting further news

GLA

As Bullish and happy with the current progress as I am, I do want sense check myself for any bias that I may have..

How do we all jump to the conclusion that adding indications to a Phase 1 trial is a positive and should be interpreted as a sign that it is currently working as expected in humans?

I would much more easily jump to the conclusion that it is not working as intended, and that indications are being added to potentially find it does work in the added indications.... We are only missing the RNS that an indication is dropped from the Phase 1 (which, for strategic reasons you would not do, just keep on at it and only drop an indication when you are confident it is working elsewhere)

Conspiracy theory? No. Just avoiding any positive bias to this news flow. Please share your thoughts

Quick question, as I don't understand. Hopefully someone here can enlighten me

What we know:

- AVA6000: lifetime maximum dosing limit lifted, YAY

- CC's recent interview: her spounge analogy and the toxicity as a result of cumulated dosing...

From my somple pov, two contradicting statements. What am I misunderstanding re: toxicity of AVA6000, or re: maximum lifetime dosing?

The RVMD example is interesting, but then we agree that a Nasdaq listing is required first, to be able to move the SP before TO bids are worth entertaining

I get the the point on multiples from SP all time lows (Trilium & pharmacyclics examples). But that's cherry picking the data in the chart though.

(although you did state that are leg up is underway from all time low, but we need to get a move on)

Thanks Aldebran,

So effectively the bet stays on Avacta tapping into an unprecedented unmet need, and hence we could expect unprecedented multiples due to SP on AIM remaining low. Assuming that deal flow and other news flow don't drive the SP up significantly in the mean time.

As a LT shareholder I want to risk adjust my exit, and my thesis is still sependent on unprecedented multiples (provided the SP doesnt move), and not sure if I can justify that (therefore trying to manage my own expectations)

Also, 'if USA nukes Iran and Avacta valuation falls to 10p per share. Does that then mean any deal we could get would be limited to 15p per share?'...

Effectively yes, it's called macro context and I would not say that Biotech are not subject to macro influence. Is it limited to 15p, no. But macro absolutely influences biotech deal values, but the mechanics are more nuanced than in most sectors.

Thanks I appreciate the peak sales metric as a valuation driver in biotech, which indeed is a known concept.

That being said, when does it happen that the peak sales are not priced into the SP, and a TO happens for >1000% premiums? Curious if such use cases are out there, as that would prove your point.

Without such use cases it’s difficult to argue that the SP needs to take a giant leap before TO bids are even worth entertaining

Although a great example, at some point this should already be reflected in the current SP. If you research similar companies / deals, the premium over shareprice rarely exceeds >50%. So without any SP movement, a potential TO today or tomorrow will never yield the results we're looking for. The SP needs to make a massive leap first, either here on AIM or more likely on Nasdaq before any TO will be interesting

Could you pls share a link?

Not speculating but sincerely curious: any chance we’re part of Biden’s spending?

GLA, we’re back in the game

As a long term holder I'm fine with dips in SP and patient enough to wait for all the good stuff to be delivered. Both LFT wise as well as the true disruptors in the pipeline.

In the meantime though I do want to be entertained. And I can't help imagining a new season of The Office, Avacta edition. Picturing AS as the leader of the pack. But please add the scenes that you think are currently going on (were going on/will happen) in The Office flavour..

Disclaimer - this is obviously for entertainment purposes only as we wait for sales RNS' to drop among others

Currently learning that the majority of LFT’s are using EO at the tip of the swab’s and multiple studies now suggest that usage of EO (in general) leads to more presence of various forms of cancer. My question is: what do we know about Avacta’s use of EO? Could an absence of EO lead to potential USP? Or will this only be the case if we manage to launch the saliva test? Therefore all saliva test would have an USP over swab LFT’s in general - not unique to Avacta then.

Eager to learn more on this topic - thanks!

GLA

Agree with Oxygen here. Government contract turning in to a 'nice to have' vs a 'must have'. Looking fwd to the May update with inked contracts that confirm we're not dependent on UK government

Thanks PL - exactly what it confirms is that their test is crap and Avacta's may be considered as the the golden standard. No question about that - check.
ROW lining up to take whatever we can supply - check.
Sir Al to update us in May on some of these contracts and shoot the SP up - check.
It is us to win gov contract due to ODX being crap and timelines somewhat align - mehh

Agree?

So we're *aware

So we're of our timelines thanks to Sir Al and so far everything is pointing in the right direction for (professional use) in UK & EU - check

For the government (DHSC) contract I believe I understood we require Porton Down validation - which is expected to be lengthy and can be assumed to take longer than the timelines committed to by Sir Al. So how does the ODX RNS and take aways confirm we're on track to win gov contract in the short term?

GLA

Never mind - wider range of chemo applications sized at $56.5bn with a 11.5% CAGR