I'm not expecting much here until the end of the year at this point unless we get a trading update in November (would be nice to see how the PCR tests are doing with all the rule changes taking effect) but not getting my hopes up considering state of PR here. More detailed news on product launches would be pleasant but could still be a while yet..
However, for those who are feeling a bit down about MHC (I sympathise) just look at their TrustPilot page and bask in the amount of green you see, take note of the timestamps on those reviews too. Regular 5 star reviews every single day which vastly outweighs 1 or 2 negative comments from unfortunate experiences or people who simply object to covid testing rather than MHC. Once you've looked at the TrustPilot page, re-read the SEAL advisors report on MyHealthChecked it makes for pleasant reading.
No comment from me but this is basically his position:
"Sold my shares on YGEN on what I deem to be ethical grounds [a while ago]"
"I don't see any reason (ignoring ethical reasons) to reenter on financial grounds"
Doesn't like the use of EBITDA, "gut instinct is that pre-tax profit will be negative for H1"
"No earnings visibility at all"
"Limited upside, minor slip up could be material downside"
Interestingly DraftKings have today pulled out of their £18.4bn (£28 per share) bid for ENT. Wonder if they'll be eyeing up other TO opportunities...
https://www.ft.com/content/ae1b143f-3735-488b-a510-37f77f2dddf9
"The first company is a standout growth investment, in my eyes. Gambling group 888 Holdings (LSE: 888) has gone from strength to strength over the past few years. And it doesn’t look as if the enterprise is going to slow down anytime soon.
In the past few months, it’s launched a sportsbook division in the US and the transformational acquisition of William Hill International.
The combined group will be a global force to be reckoned with. Management estimates operating synergies could total £100m a year which will boost profitability.
Based on this growth potential, I’d acquire the stock for my portfolio today.
Due to the risks associated with gambling, this investment may not be suitable for all. The industry is heavily regulated and taxed, and there could be additional regulations on the horizon, which could impact 888’s growth."
https://www.fool.co.uk/2021/10/18/3-uk-shares-to-buy-for-growth/
The reasons Penny gave for MHC not bothering with LFT really made sense tbh. The LFT market is already horrendously oversaturated, the rug could be pulled at any moment as with PCR (we've all experienced that), MHC would much rather focus on getting their wellness tests out and on sale ASAP.
I traded this for a couple of weeks back in March and I'm now back in with a long position. I like the current state of affairs and 888 has been slowly building itself up to be a major player in this sector alongside FLTR & ENT. The management seem to be decent and the company is clearly well run.
The acquisition of William Hill is positive and I'll be interested to see what they do with it in the years to come. The only worry (as always with gambling companies) is are the various governments going to launch a crackdown & tighten regulation. I am aware 888 issued a 2021 revenue warning saying that £50-70m will be wiped off due to new regulation and governments are going to have to find some ways to pay back the massive COVID debt. Nevertheless, I don't think any major regulation will come into effect in the next couple of years.
On a sidenote I must say that I've used 888 sport to place bets and to be honest I was not impressed. The UI is awful and found it very difficult to navigate, deposit money and place a bet. I still much prefer Bet365 when it comes to sports/events betting. I would be surprised if Bet365 isn't acquired in the next 5-10 years but it will probably be FLTR/ENT who win it.
This talk is going to leave us with a Schrodinger's Lisense situation... the current state is that the license is both approved & unapproved ;)
Just a small point on TW worth considering...
TW is of the idea that a massive market correction is coming any day now and claims to be hoarding cash in preparation. Two months ago he had almost nothing but praise for Penny bar one or two common criticisms, now he thinks she’s awful and terrible at her job. What changed? The shares didn’t zoom in September like he kept telling his paying subscribers they would. He has to pin the blame on someone that isn't him if he still wants people to pay to read his articles.
My key takeaways from the presentation:
- £12m in revenue up to Q3
- 250k tests sold from the launch of PCR to Q3
- Tests will release Q1 2022 (Include Heart Monitoring, Tolerance/Sensitivity, Glucose monitoring)
- A very strong relationship with Boots who "understanding [MHC's] strategic intentions" & no reason to believe the rolling contract will be cancelled
- An updated timeline which goes up to 2023 (although should be weary as Jan 21 timeline was not kept to)
Negatives:
- CEO seemingly disregards shareholders, doesn't seem to care about SP & wants to put all "focus on core business" (not necessarily a bad thing in the long run)
- Share price still suppressed, still not entirely convinced PCR sales are going to continue to be material in the medium-long term, MHC think they will be significant for many years to come
- Still no firm date on when products will launch. CEO was tenuous about whether we will see non-COVID products in physical stores in Q1 2022
Yes, the presentation is very welcome & renewed my support in the company. Still disappointed in some aspects but overall pleased so far.
Particularly liked this part:
"We speak with Boots several times a week" - very close relationship, "very clear on strategic intention" "view us as extremely trusted provider"
Interestingly LFTs have been under scrutiny the past few days not only for their false negatives but also their false positives. Someone takes an LFT that returns positive, has to pay for a PCR only to find out they are actually negative. The switch to LFT is a bad choice IMO but then it wouldn't be Government if they were making sensible decisions
https://inews.co.uk/news/covid-lateral-flow-tests-negative-pcr-1236141
From what I recall of their presentation (Penny may have said this elsewhere) their plan is to price the tests at around £20-30 and make them attractive for consumers not to purchase one type of test but purchase one type of test, gain confidence in MHC and then buy their other tests.
I concur that currently none of the announced products are things one would purchase more than once. However, in a nation of almost 70million we'd only need a fraction of them to buy one test to still be doing pretty well. But repeat custom is something desired and I believe there are tests that MHC could develop which customers would purchase more than once.
For example a faecal calprotectin test would not only allow one to test if they are more likely to have IBS rather than IBD but would also allow sufferers of IBD to identify the severity of their inflammation which is used to monitor Crohn's patients. At the moment this test basically requires sufferers to **** in a tube, hand deliver it to a lab normally at a hospital and then wait for a nurse or consultant to call them back however many days later with the result. An at-home test for this would save not only time but also potential embarrassment for sufferers of Crohn's or other IBD. If MHC were to target this (something which I have no idea if it requires special regulatory approval btw) then I have no doubt MHC would be where I want to put my money in. However, MHC have currently given us vegan suitability tests.
This is why I believe uncertainty is the single most factor dragging us down right now. If the October 12th presentation does not offer any new information on firm timelines, future products & how it expects to deliver shareholder expectations then I will be severely disappointed and may reconsider my position in this company. However, I am giving them one chance to address the market directly and give their case as to why they should have my money.
If they cannot improve their communication to shareholders then why should shareholders bother giving them money?
It seems to be holding at 1.7/1.8 but I think it's impossible to predict any movement here at the moment. Hopefully on the 12th there will be much better clarity on where this company is headed and then maybe we can have an idea of what the share price will do.
However, that is very dependent on the presentation & Q+A being very productive and informative particularly in relation to new products.
Agreed with you there Kiwi.
On a separate note, it's now only 11 days until MHC give a presentation to analysts and then a further presentation with Q&A to investors. I would really like to think they're going to divulge some specific details about the product launches then. If not, then I will be severely disappointed.
We were supposed to be on "Phase 3 Product Launch" next week and now the only date we've been given now is "H1 2022". They need to start ensuring the market understands MHC and what its plan is and when it starts to expect to deliver on those. The timeline presented at the start of the year now makes this company look a bit silly to outsiders, it's time for an update imo.
The big day is almost here! And then in a couple of weeks we get a (hopefully) juicy presentation and QNA session which - fingers crossed - should reveal a lot about the non-covid products
https://www.prweek.com/article/1727839/francis-ingham-lead-new-self-regulatory-body-much-criticised-covid-19-testing-firms:
Membership of the LTIO is open only to those providers that accept a code of conduct based on the recent CMA letter sent to all providers of COVID-19 testing. In addition, membership will be open only to organisations that score 3.5 or above on the independent Trustpilot rating website.
The founding members of the LTIO are BioGrad (currently rated 3.4 on Trustpilot), Cignpost Diagnostics/ExpressTest (4.5), Halo Verify (4.3), Medical Diagnosis (3.6), Project Screen by Prenetics (4.0) and Qured (3.9).
Further coverage in the dailymail:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10009379/New-body-launched-self-regulate-Covid-testing-amid-No10s-crackdown-exploitative-firms.html?ito=social-twitter_dailymailUK
Given the fact the requirement is to show proof of a negative test "within 72 hours" I would go out on a limb to say it's PCR. However, as mentioned, that is a complete assumption. I've been digging but haven't found any publication that actually says what type of test is required.
Given the fact the requirement is to show proof of a negative test "within 72 hours" I would go out on a limb to say it's PCR. However, as mentioned, that is a complete assumption
"mean unvaccinated Americans will face stricter testing requirements" ***
Moore, to your first question here, is the announcement: "The White House coronavirus response coordinator, Jeff Zients, said on Monday international travellers will require proof of full vaccination before boarding a flight and a negative Covid-19 test within 72 hours of departure. They will not be required to quarantine upon arrival."
And "The changes will be part of a new travel system the US, including updated rules on contact tracing and masking that will mean unvaccinated Americans will "
To answer your second question, nobody knows. It's anybody's guess with this Government as to whether restrictions will remain, loosen or tigthen as we all found out last week.