Member Info for londoner7

firepisces, thanks for the link. I just took another look - it is a wealth of information. I particularly like the purple numbers showing gross take todate and the number of days since first release. May numbers should be good and it doesn't take much to extrapolate potentially good numbers for Q2.

Mike, you make a clear case for company dividends over annuities in the current market. Interesting that you chose RDSB. Certainly, its been a stalwart dividend payer through the recent oil price turmoil. It didn't have the cash flows to cover the annual payments, but did have distributable reserves to maintain the payout, and has come out with 16 years of distributable reserves left on the balance sheet - so perhaps a couple more oil price crashes could be accomodated. But the dividend is paid in $$ so there is a currency impact. Of course the possiblity of a change of UK government could make the $$ payment a good hedge. Also, RDBS are likley to need to manage the energy transition from oil, through gas to the next (thing) - which carries risk. After all, at 65, hopefully you have a few decades left in you so you're likely to witness the energy transition. Turning to Marston's, its ability to maintain the dividend through a drop in the market is less robust than RDSB. MARS dividends are funded on a yearly basis with very little in terms of distributable reserves. But that has been the case for several years, and currently the dividend is well covered by cash, albeit capital expenditures might need another look in the event of any market disruption. But for that higher risk we are currently getting �7,650 for our �100K investment. My point is that if you are supplementing your pension with company dividends then it's wise to spread your investment across a wide range of companies. Of course you could pay 1% of your investment to have a fund manager do the job for you. But of course we know it isn't a job - for us it is an absorbing hobby, which can be very rewarding and beats working for a living! Londoner7

Interesting! So Star Wars topped but not by the margin hoped for. With 3 blockbusters on the go at the same time let's hope they don't run out of pop corn!

Welch Permian Basin Project (Texas): 100% Working Interest and Operator The Project is located in the Permian Basin, in and around the Welch township in Dawson County, West Texas, approximately 550 km west of Dallas. It consists of 653 acres of leases (held by production) with 10 producing wells, 7 injector wells, and 10 shut-in wells. The acquisition includes production equipment and facilities. RNS � 15th Sept 2017 � Acquisition of Welch $310,000 The daily average volume of oil sold for the 13 months to June 2017 was 34 bopd and there is good development potential in respect to shorter term well workovers and medium term horizontal drilling potential. (Note: as the daily production records were not available, production figures are based on oil sold). RNS � 29th Sept 2017 - �600,000 placing The proceeds of the Placing will accelerate the ongoing development of the existing US onshore oil production assets to increase production and cash flow.... RNS � 13th Feb 2018 � USA update Welch - The property was acquired for both production income and development potential. Oil sales (gross) for the four month period from October to January were 3,558 barrels, delivering positive cash flow. [30 bopd] The first phase of workovers has established production of up to 40 bopd which is periodically reduced by operational matters such as the temporary shut-in for a few days in January to avoid damage in freezing weather conditions, and typical minor matters such as pump or rod repairs. RNS � 29th May 2018 � �600,000 pacing, some of the placing funds allocated to: � Workovers at Welch to bring additional wells on production, with an investment in replacing rods that will reduce future breaks, eliminating production downtime and repair costs. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ These are the updates from Mosman on the Welch project. You can email JB with questions but he will not provide you with inside information relating to the business. If JB had anything over or above previously reported production volumes or cash flows he would have taken the opportunity to have said it alongside the placing. That is, unless you believe that Mosman is in a position to keep some powder dry for the next call for funding. The prospect of a horizontal well at Welch �with anticipated flow rates of 60-120 bopd per well (based on nearby well results)�, is 'ongoing' since the Welch acquisition in Sept 2017. It is expected that the board will make a decision on the horizontal drill before the end of 2018. But one question JB may be permitted to answer is, what discount is Mosman taking on Welch production to have it transported out of the Permian basin? https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-29/shale-s-surge-crashes-into-bottlenecks-from-pipelines-to-ports But perhaps Welch is the wron

A younger and better informed member of my family told me that the drop in the SP may be due to the poor performance of the latest Star Wars movie. https://www.straitstimes.com/lifestyle/entertainment/new-star-wars-film-sputters-at-the-box-office It's seem that rather than watch the Stars Wars movie punters were putting their bums on seats in a different part of the complex watching Deadpool or Infinity War - eating the same pop corn, soda etc. Perhaps next weekend they'll watch Star Wars, with more pop corn and soda. I took the opportunity to top up his holding of Cineworld too. Londoner7

and I thought it was to give me a chance to top up ;-)

Indicies do matter is so far as they affect liquidity - the volume of buyers and sellers in the market for the stock. Funds are typically marketed at sectors of the market, mid cap, small cap, dividend payers etc. I don't know the specific rules but a fund with a brief to invest in the mid caps category may be required to sell a stock which drops out of that category. Alternatively, a fund group might move that stock from it's mid cap fund to it's small cap fund. Category transfers are also well signposted. The cutoff was last nights closing price. I can't confirm but I suspect Marston's is now a small cap company. Investors with an interest in categorisation have probably already traded appropriately. Basically, I think you could tie yourself in knots trying to figure out the impact on the stock. But I suspect any impact is already in the stock price. What matters? Summer matters! Particularly Sunday afternoons and Bank Holiday weekends. Londoner7

Oh dear, so much pessimism around. In terms of recent SP performance our competition, GNK and MAB, are leaving us behind. But MARS have shown better EPS performance over recent years and expectations over the next two years are also ahead. It seems to me that MARS operations are ahead of both GNK and MAB. So what is the problem? Debt! There are a nunber of ways to assess this, Debt/EBITDA, FCC, Book value. The focus here is very much on Debt/EBITDA. MARS try to exclude the property leasing element but the market isn't having it. So inspite of better operations the stock is impacted by the current market view on debt. But that market view can be fickle. I completed my stake in MARS after results last Wed at an average 103.3p. Knock off yesterday's 2.7p xd and my additional stake is 100.6p and here we are one week on at 99p. OK my average is 10p higher, and it's disappointing that we didn't hold the 112p that had been hit before the interims, but a key reason for me getting into MARS is my expectation that trading this summer will be up against very weak comparisons during 2016 and 2017. That expectation hasn't changed. Costs are a challenge and shouldn't be ignored but I thought MARS addressed these in recent presentations - stable. As an investor I look forwards not backwards. Looking forward to another decent bank holiday weekend. But if you're in the south you might want to take a brolly along with the sun cream to your favourite beer garden. I add water to my whisky but prefer not to have it in my beer. Londoner7

JMO, you don't need to guess, the numbers are available. This for the US market https://www.the-numbers.com/market/ Suggest you ignore the 2018 number. It's annualised on a short period so noisy. Interesting to note the average US ticket price against UK prices. UK numbers are also available if you look. I checked a few weeks back but don't have the link to hand. Londoner7

Bamps21, I'll add two more: Current high negative market sentiment - not helped by FT article at w/e, see iii board. can reverse - see next point Potential for good 2nd half profit if the summer is better than 2017 and 2016. I felt H1 numbers were good considering the Beast from the East. I was also suprised that analysts trimmed full year numbesr on the basis of H1s when H2 accounts for two thirds full year earnings - as the CFO said, "Summer matters". Londoner7

Always nice to see a CFO putting a hand in his own pocket.

Langton Capital follow the trade. This from their blog: � Discounts to be found yesterday. Pizza Express 25% off, Frankie & Benny�s 30% off, Beefeater 33% off, Prezzo 40% off. � Why pay full price? Where�s the road back for some of these operators? The MARS CEO said something similar in yesteday's call about 'the road back' for operators who discount while facing increasing costs. A one way path to insolvency.

JKG53, yes I see the great value bottled beers in Tesco when I'm shopping but I walk on by. I'm at at age when I watch my intake and prefer to exercise my quota in the presence of a pretty bar maid. She can also administer CPR if I accidently quaff a GK IPA or Doom Bar. Oops, now I've done it. I'll have the 'bar person' policy unit on my back ;-)

"I'm not keen on IPA but they must be selling a lot." Bamps21, too true! There's a MAB pub in my home town, close to my mum. They have three ale pumps which used to be stocked with GK IPA, Doom Bar, and a guest beer. Needless to say I went for the guest beer. After a couple of visits with no guest beer on offer I asked the landlord what had happened to it. He told me that MAB expected a level of sales of the GK IPA and the Doom Bar before they were supplied the guest beer. He told me that although he was meeting the company's quota they now refused him the guest beer. I wondered what that says about MAB's distribution policy but they lost me as a customer. A lot of GK IPA and Doom Bar is sold because often that's all that's on offer. While I have some favourites I prefer a selection of real ales to choose from. My local has up to 8 ales on tap so my taste buds don't get stale. Unfortunately, it is a Greene King pub. Londoner7

zed44, I wasn't the one interested in whether you are a shareholder. I was interested in understanding the full experience. I've only been a shareholder in MARS a few months and in that time I haven't come across a MARS bar to check out. As a MARS shareholder, I'm sorry you had a bad experience. I appreciate that if you were hosting friends then any poor service also reflects on your choice of venue. Only you will have the full picture on which to guage another visit but, again as a shareholder, pleased to hear you were all drinking the high margin product. Best, Londoner7

Okay, own up While Zed44 and his mates were waiting for their Chicken Biryani in a Marston's Two 4 One in Milton Keynes last Friday night who was quaffing the Abbot Ale? While I'm partial to a drop myself, even on a good night I couldn't account for a 6% rise in GKN shares. And I know it isn't down to the GK IPA - where I come from it's only good for cleaning the pipes!

Just to add. Prior to the interims (Carillion and the rights issue) broker concensus was 169p for the full year. Following the very good interims (80.8p pre exceptions) I felt 180p was achievable - a high end target. Today GFRD have based their forecast on current broker estimates for PBT, which have clearly come back since the interims - is this due to the beast from the east, Carillion, or other factors? The beast from the east is a real impact and Carillion likely impacted too so I'll come back off my 180p pre rights, 170p post rights, and look for EPS between todays high end guidance and my original number. 161.4 - 170p. GFRD talked today of contingencies. With 6 weeks to the end of the financial year perhaps they will not need them. Mine might be an optimistic outlook but I often see companies beat concensus numbers to achieve my targets. Today another company I follow (SCAPA) beat concensus by 6% after what I and the market interpreted as a casutious update just last month. Today's SP reaction? Currently up 10%. Londoner7

I don't think such comment has any impact anywhere. But I would have been interested in a bigger picture. Zed44, Was it a destination pub, Two for One, Pitcher & Piano, or a tavern? Why did you visit - been before or recommendation? Did you go for the food, the beer or both? Was it busy? What time did you visit? Were you warned about a long wait? Were you planning to spend the evening there, but left because of the food? How was the atmosphere, conducive to a good night or dead, too noisy? Are you a young group, old group or a mix? Good selection of drinks for the group? Were you there for the beer too? If so how was it? What did you have? Price? Is there good local competition or is it the only pub in town? What was wrong with your meal? How were your friends' meals? Did the meals arrive together? Was the meal good value? - I understand �it was not the best you've had� but did it beat a Big Mac - I don't know you culinary habits. If you had complained, what would you have said? How could Marston's have improved your experience? Were there any positives? If you go to the trouble of writing of your experience then please describe it in a meaningful way. Detail, dear boy! I had a meal in a MAB pub the other week. In balancing too many dishes the waitress spilt my meal across the table. I wasn't happy but I didn't feel the need to post my experience to the MAB board. Best, Londoner7

After what I thought was poor wording in the trading update last month, and the market seemed to agree, Scapa have come good with 18.2p EPS. Well ahead of the broker forecasts. Londoner7

The biggie in the room - AWPR- was handled well. 2nd half exceptional narrowed down in the call to �10-�20m. Linden gross and net margings ahead of last year and that isn't including land sales which improve margins further. P&R "Strong" Construction - underlying performance continues to improve. I take that to mean beating the H1 0.9% over the full year. (0% in 2017). Putting the guidance PBT numbers and the exceptional (�25 + �10-20m) together I come out with a (wide) range of 145p - 161.4p for adjusted EPS. This includes 2.5 months weighting for the rights issue. Before this update the FT has EPS broker consensus of 144.2p and a broker high of 153p, which is bang on the middle of my numbers above. If I have my numbers right and trading continues as expected till the end of the FY (another 6 weeks) then this is a good update. But of course the rights dilution really kicks in during the next financial year. GFRD would be doing well to achieve the same EPS in FY2019. But hey, we're still looking at a PE of 6.4 on the mid 153p number and a 7.8% dividend yield on 2x cover. Londoner7.