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Ceos win either way. Once you get into the elite the elite looks after its own, and people fail upwards and fall onto piles of money, but this is a class issue and a stock board is probably not the best place to discuss it!
Yes, the dilution was the bit that confused everything.
At that time I was very naive and I just heard all the stuff about going from an exploration company to a producer and it seemed like an amazing opportunity so I bought in at .38 . And all along the ride people have been touting that, that we are not 88e, that we are producing, and I was so stupid that I didn't stop to think, wait a minute, there are other producing companies out there, what are they priced at? What are their market caps? Or rather I did but I dismissed it.
It's amazing how greed encourages one to remain ignorant. It's a fantastic lesson really, and if I ever build my portfolio back up again I will be thankful for it!
I don't think there needs to be a bigger issue. Just the prospect of a long wait for production to rise and a drift down to a sensible market cap for the current production/debt could cause investors who have already been waiting for so long to cut their losses, perhaps?
What bigger issue could there be given that the asset has already responded well to miscible flooding? It seems to unlikely that it would just change its mind and stop responding, but I have no relevant expertise so I'm just guessing.
The market cap was just too high to hold without spectacular production. I kept hearing the the cliche 'lowly market cap' and thinking actually it's quite high compared to peers.
Obviously, as I've said before, if the miscible flooding ramps up production to several thousand barrels a day or more then the market cap will soar back again and higher rapidly, so I expect in the medium term it's ok so long as things go smoothly from here.
Surely lower production will have a greater effect on the sp than most stocks because of the debt and repayments due in the medium term.
Conversely, production rising by an appropriate amount will have a coiled spring effect as the debt and related complications recede into irrelevance.
Do you think that tipping off is necessary?
Does the part in the RNS about the discovery sound encouraging? I mean, the results may be great when they come but when I read the discovery RNS I'm thinking a. long term and b. expensive and c. not at all certain. And as has been mentioned, the market at present isn't that interested in potential without certainty and timescales.
But then as you say, why the confidentiality? Why can't copl do things in a more straightforward way, even by aim standards!
Shaa, you are right of course. The problem is with the ticked boxes.
In my experience so far, things go wrong for penny stocks. Things don't pan out as ceos predict.
So my conclusion is that the only way to make money is to factor this reality in when buying, always, and to treat one's own optimism and that of others mercilessly. Because the market will if we don't.
I am being patient, but in terms of waiting for a realistic buy in price, deflated from the over-enlarged market cap vs actual production which the dilution to buy Atomic created. If I don't get a great price then I will look at other stocks; the fed deep discovery may rerate this very soon and I'll miss out, but aside from that my feeling is that this one got ahead of itself with high expectations.
Pondering, it was Art himself who said of the share price 'we think quite a ways upwards'.
And this board has consistently predicted short term gains, rerates to 1p, 2p and so on 'as soon as the churn is done'. Sadly, market maker games, traders, wonga lenders, international shorting syndicates, paid trolls, gremlins and Huldufólk have clearly conspired to keep it down.
It'll rise when profitable production rises, on discoveries and so forth; it'll fall on setbacks, like everything else.
The question I've wanted to understand the answer to for a long time still pops up when I'm wondering whether to buy in again.
Ok, there were issues with gas and upgrading facilities, so the timescale has changed (and the cash situation will be tighter, which has other implications).
When these are in place, how nailed on is the projected several thousand barrels per day production level that miscible flooding is planned to achieve? How often does miscible flooding disappoint? Because that is really the only thing that absolutely needs to happen - on the board people see it as a certainty; does anyone with experience in the industry and the science of these things know how certain it is that we will see these thousands of barrels?
'15 Jul '21
I too think 3p is achievable short term, MM’s will try every trick in the book though.
Just a matter of sitting back for the first week and watching the derampers come on here, ever looking for a cheap entry, gonna be fun.'
Shaa
Now 3p would be a 500 million market cap.
'17 Jul '21
Considering we may see 2p - 3p for Atomic quite quickly, if Nigeria is a go then 5p could be seen before Sept 2021 - MINIMUM.'
Shaa
To employ classic British understatement, this was a little optimistic.
Also, don't believe derampers who try to dampen the mood around a stock or play on your nerves.
Almost any stock could shoot up overnight with the right news. Most companies don't provide enough information on their companies for us to know whether they are doing well or not, which I suppose is by design as it allows them more control over the narrative, over fundraising, and also the ability to avoid or defer responsibility when things go wrong.
The trouble with aim is that investors are looking for quick wins and have been burned before, so no news is seen as a. boring and b. ominous, when, from my limited experience, it can be but often isn't a good reason for a stock to lose a lot of value, as too often happens during such a period.
There should be a public information broadcast every time you refresh the page: 'remember, other investors, shills, and the companies themselves will try to manipulate your emotions. Do not let them'.