Comment from the IC today26 Nov 2025 18:07
The Budget dashed North Sea oil & gas producers’ hopes by confirming that the energy profits levy (EPL) windfall tax will stay in place until March 2030. It will then be formally replaced by a new, permanent ‘oil and gas price mechanism’ (OGPM), which will see headline taxation rates fall from the current 78 per cent to the prior level of 40 per cent. However, an additional tax rate of 35 per cent will apply above price thresholds of $90 per barrel for oil and 90p per therm for gas.
The new mechanism will come into effect earlier if energy prices fall below current thresholds of $71.40 for oil and 54p per therm for gas for two successive quarters.
Oil prices have been below this level for most of the year, but elevated gas prices have ensured the current levy remains in place. If these thresholds are not breached, the current levy will end by March 2030 and will be replaced by the new rates.
According to the North Sea Transition Authority, producers are currently paying an effective marginal rate of 78 per cent. The industry’s trade body, Offshore Energies UK, argues that this rate is inhibiting capital investment in the fields.
David Whitehouse, chief executive of OEUK, said: “The future of North Sea energy depends on investment, which won’t come without urgent reform of the windfall tax. If the levy stays in place beyond 2026, projects will stall and jobs will vanish, no matter how pragmatic licensing policy becomes.”
The government has become more practical on licensing, allowing exploration near existing fields, which is a partial reversal of its pledge in the 2024 election manifesto for a total ban on new oil & gas drilling licences – a promise that affected share prices markedly at the time.
Nevertheless, the consensus is that the Budget announcement fitted within a pattern of long-term decline for North Sea oil & gas, rather than the beginning of a “managed” revival. A point, perhaps, inadvertently reinforced by the establishment of a North Sea jobs service, which the government promises will be “offering tailored end-to-end support for the current workforce”.
Overall, the market took a downbeat view of the announcements and shares in Harbour Energy (HBR), EnQuest (ENQ) and Serica (SQZ) – the largest listed North Sea explorers – showed small declines of between 1-3 per cent in the aftermath.