RE: CIPS Flash United Kingdom PMI®22 Sep 2023 09:35
Commenting on the flash PMI data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
“The disappointing PMI survey results for September mean a recession is looking increasingly likely in the UK. The steep fall in output signalled by the flash PMI data is consistent with GDP contracting at a quarterly rate of over 0.4%, with a broad-based downturn gathering momentum to hint at few hopes of any imminent improvement.
“Underscoring the severity of the UK's deteriorating situation, September's downturn is the steepest since the height of the global financial crisis in early 2009 barring only the pandemic lockdown months.
“The survey had warned that a revival of growth in the second quarter looked unsustainable, and the third quarter is indeed seeing a mounting toll on the economy from the reality of the increased cost of living and the recent rapid rise in interest rates.
“Despite higher fuel prices during the month, firms’ costs grew at a sharply reduced rate overall which, combined with collapsing pricing power amid weak demand, looks set to take further pressure off inflation in the coming months.