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Britain will narrowly avoid a recession this year – but people and businesses will still feel the pain akin to the 2008 financial crash, according to an influential business network.

The UK economy is on course to eke out growth of 0.4 per cent over 2023, the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) predicted in its latest quarterly economic forecast.

It is a marginal upgrade from the 0.3 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) level previously forecast by the group.

GDP will then drop to 0.3 per cent over 2024 and nudge up slightly to 0.7 per cent over 2025, a downgrade from its previous expectations.

It means the nation could avoid falling into a technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.

https://www.cityam.com/britain-to-narrowly-avoid-recession-but-meagre-growth-will-make-it-feel-a-lot-like-one-anyway/

GDP Growth - Second quarter of 2023, OECD

https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/gdp-growth-second-quarter-2023-oecd.htm#:~:text=In%20the%20G7%2C%20quarter%2Don,%25%2C%20compared%20with%200.1%25).

Skier1

""It is time to stop these relentless posts of UK economic misery and doom. They are on the wrong side of history""

PMI data is backwards looking and markets are forward looking the latest GDP figures were showing the UK's economy grew by 0.2 per cent and definitely not ( UK has been the world's fastest-growing G7 economy for 2 years in a row ) it's not good to post misleading information on forums

"Partly explains why Lloyds share price is languishing eh"

Completely agree

GL

Dr John Glen, Chief Economist at the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS), said:

"August painted a concerning picture of the services sector as the cooling economic effects of higher interest rates started to impact on spending and confidence, reducing the number of new orders at the fastest rate since last December.

"This combined with punishing costs of living and doing business, mainly due to higher energy bills, fuel prices and salary inflation, meant supply chain managers voiced their disquiet at the direction of travel for the service sector which fell into contraction this month.

"Though the sector’s shrinkage was marginal, the hesitation to commit is likely to be the landscape for the next few months as the UK economy becomes a riskier environment for domestic and overseas business alike and competition amongst service providers intensifies. Capacity opened up at the greatest level for three years as backlogs declined, so staff hiring was more muted, reducing job seeker opportunities as prospects for the UK economy become colder."

Tim Moore, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, which compiles the survey:

"Service providers saw customer spending reverse course during August as higher borrowing costs, subdued business confidence, and stretched household finances all acted to curtail sales opportunities.

"After a modest recovery over the past six months, service sector businesses are now clearly feeling the impact of rising interest rates on client demand. Worries about the broader business climate also dampened spending in August, with firms suggesting that faltering UK economic growth and sticky inflation were weighing on the outlook.

"Adding to signs of reduced pressure on business capacity, the latest survey indicated that backlogs of work decreased at the fastest pace for over three years. Service providers appear to have gently put the brake on staff hiring, with job creation easing to its lowest since March.

"Key data to watch in the coming months will be the extent to which weaker employment trends and softer demand translate into falling domestic inflation. August's survey data provided a signal that heightened competitive pressures have helped to push down output charge inflation across the service economy, as the latest round of price hikes was the slowest seen for two years."

Business activity falls for the first time since January

Key findings

Marginal declines in output and new work

Sharpest reduction in backlogs since June 2020

Prices charged inflation eases to a two-year low

UK service providers experienced a renewed downturn in business activity during August. Survey respondents mostly cited weaker business and consumer spending, combined with the impact of higher borrowing costs on client demand. A lack of new work to replace completed projects resulted in the fastest decline in backlogs for just over three years.

Higher wages continued to push up business expenses, but the overall rate of input price inflation was the joint-lowest since May 2021. Softer cost pressures and greater competition for new work contributed to the weakest rise in prices charged by service providers for two years in August.

The headline®seasonally adjusted S&P Global / CIPS UK Services PMI Business Activity Index registered 49.5 in August, down from 51.5 in July and the lowest since January. Any figure below 50.0 indicates an overall reduction in service sector output. The latest index reading signalled a marginal decline in business activity, which contrasted with a solid pace of expansion throughout the second quarter of 2023.

Lower output reflected a return to falling sales volumes in August, as signalled by a marginal decline in new work for the first time since January. Service providers typically noted caution among clients and fewer new business opportunities, linked to rising interest rates, squeezed disposable incomes and worries about the economic outlook.

https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/530c08a6a9b54dd1b6cabc3ac4e1a78b

Sept 5 (Reuters) - China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in eight months in August, a private-sector survey showed on Tuesday, as weak demand continued to dog the world's second-largest economy and stimulus failed to meaningfully revive consumption.

The Caixin/S&P Global services purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 51.8 in August from 54.1 in July, the lowest reading since December when COVID-19 confined many consumers to their homes. The 50-point mark separates expansion from contraction in activity.

The data broadly aligned with the official services PMI released last week, which showed the sector continued to trend downwards. Even the record number of passenger railway trips and stellar box office earnings during the summer failed to drive up the reading.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-august-services-activity-slows-amid-sluggish-demand-caixin-pmi-2023-09-05/

I see it on other forums some people are paid to post of the forum and not invested in the stock

NatWest share price has gone up higher than before the pandemic

Barclays share price has gone up higher than before the pandemic

Virgin money share price has gone up higher than before the pandemic

HSBC share price has gone up higher than before the pandemic

Lloyds before pandemic 63p after 55p markets not happy with buybacks if dividend payments went to pre pandemic it would attract more investors as higher earnings drive share price up

Lti and gate13boy

Some posters are paid to post on the forum to keep momentum up

If Lloyds want to raise the share price got to improve on the 2018/19 dividend payment then new investors will come back the market has Lloyds at 41p as it's not happy with the buyback programs

Airlines’ practice of hitting passengers with add-ons at the booking stage is facing public scrutiny through a government consultation.

Government research found that ancillary costs across a range of industries, including extra charges for specific seats or additional bags on flights, cost consumers £1.6 billion a year.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1025403/airlines-ancillary-costs-face-scrutiny-in-government-consultation-1025403.html

Lti

"2019 - share price in mid 60's - dividend yield about 5%"

2018/19

Interim 1.07

Final 2.14

2023/24

Interim .92

Final 1.84

Lloyds Banking Group is launching a charm offensive including free food to win over staff required to spend at least two days a week in the office from Monday, as banks call time on the work-from-home era that became the norm after the Covid-19 pandemic struck.

https://www.ft.com/content/5ca5f64d-afce-4ac6-bb40-d16746f4e116

Gate13Boy

Got some good points there it's just annoying to see all other UK banks have bounced back higher than there share price pre pandemic

Mooboosam20

I feel your pain I'm over 80% down one day it will come good 🤞

ALIEN METALS (@AlienMetals) posted at 11:21 am on Mon, Sep 04, 2023:

CEO Troy Whittaker speaks to @IGTV’s @JeremyNaylor_IG on the future of iron ore production at the Company.

Watch here: https://t.co/dRN3x3HzVl

#alienmetals #Ironore #mining #UFO #investing #AIM #LSE

(https://twitter.com/AlienMetals/status/1698642548598755781?t=3qoS_L0Rirv1cAjD7R6-5w&s=03)

Gate13Boy

""You need to think outside the box a little more as to why Lloyds shares price is is where it is currently""

Maybe you could tell us ? 👍

beware day traders are ramping no work will start at elizabeth hill until han**** is in production this is years away

"maybe LBG need to try something else to bring up valuations"

Lloyds dividend payment is still lower than pre pandemic, now wonder nobody wants to invest in Lloyds