BofA favours Lloyds as margin and volume pressures ease30 Nov 2023 13:19
Bank of America has highlighted that margin pressure and weak volumes on both sides of the balance sheet - which have weighed on UK domestic bank earnings and share prices - look a little better in October with spreads and volumes relatively stable.
BofA said it still sees deposit migration and spread compression into 2024 but some recovery in mortgage spreads and, potentially, volumes.
A broad product suite and range of brands appear to be helping buy rated Lloyds Banking Group PLC (LSE:LLOY) navigate this better than peers, supporting strong profitability and capital distributions, it said.
BofA said after a 20 basis point decline in September, new household deposit spreads fell just 2bp in October but remained high at c293bp with deposit volumes relatively stable in October, with households flat and 1% corporate outflows.
The investment bank noted mortgage approvals picked up in October, combined with falling mortgage rates and stabilising house prices, could be an early sign of a modest mortgage market recovery in 2024 which "we would expect to support mortgage spreads."
Lloyds Banking Group shares are 0.3% to the good