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The Bank of England’s most recent economic forecasts, which justified its higher-for-longer narrative on the interest rate, look increasingly out of date after new figures were published on the state of the labour market.

Martin Beck, chief economic adviser to EY Item Club said: “The latest pay numbers make it even more likely that the MPC will move away from ‘high for longer’ rhetoric when it meets next month”.

That’s not to say that it will lower interest rates in February, but it may prepare the ground for such a move. So far, rate-setters have insisted at every turn that it is “too early” to discuss cutting rates.

https://www.cityam.com/how-will-the-bank-of-england-change-its-approach-after-wage-growth-falls-again/

Https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/15/possible-to-have-no-rate-cut-this-year-european-central-bank-member.html

Until the BoE start's cutting interest rates and gets the threat of recession of the table I can't see any upward movement, today drop maybe down to ECB saying no rate cuts for the whole 2024

The European Central Bank may defy market expectations and hold off on starting interest rate cuts during the whole of 2024

FTSE 100 and European stocks fall as Trump wins landslide in Iowa

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/ftse-100-european-stocks-trump-win-iowa-wall-street-084549091.html

The FTSE 100 is expected to open lower although slightly better-than-expected news on average earnings may provide some support.

Spread betting companies are calling London's lead index down by around 28 points

Roderick McIllree he went to white cliff share price up 50.00%, could be another year before we're shovel ready

Https://www.google.com/search?q=white+cliff+minerals+share+price&oq=whitecliff+min&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUqCAgDEAAYFhgeMgYIABBFGDkyBwgBEAAYgAQyBwgCEAAYgAQyCAgDEAAYFhgeMggIBBAAGBYYHjIICAUQABgWGB4yCAgGEAAYFhge0gEJMzU5OTZqMGo3qAIAsAIA&client=ms-android-oneplus-rvo3&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8&chrome_dse_attribution=1#sbfbu=1&pi=white%20cliff%20minerals%20share%20price

"My guess is LTI is manipulating the SP downwards"

He can get his average SP down to 2p

The FTSE 100 and European markets made muted moves higher on Monday morning in London, as global leaders and policymakers made tracks for the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland.

On Monday morning, one of the world's top banking regulators kicked off with a warning that leaders would need to present a united front in coordinating against challenges posed by AI. The chair of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Pablo Hernández de Cos said AI “could change the course of history, not necessarily for the good,”

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/live-ftse-100-ai-davos-wall-street-085109422.html

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1038301/audioboom-targets-record-revenue-in-2024-after-return-to-growth-1038301.html?rel=scroll

I'm pleased to report a successful final quarter of 2023, with the business returning to growth mode. Our Q4 revenue of over US$19 million is the highest since Q2 2022 and reflects the improvements we have made in the business across the year.

The FTSE 100 is expected to start the week on the front foot although the session may be more subdued than normal with US markets closed for Martin Luther King Day.

Spread betting companies are calling London’s blue-chip index up by around 11 points

ALIEN METALS (@AlienMetals) posted at 0:48 pm on Fri, Jan 12, 2024:

Steel exports surged by 43.2% in December, hitting a seven-year high of 90.26 million tons for the year. Analysts anticipate continued growth in iron ore imports in 2024, aligning with mild steel consumption forecasts.

#ironore #alienmetals #mining #UFO #investing #AIM #LSE

3/3

(https://x.com/AlienMetals/status/1745789914631778549?t=Ri8Z7PMoDe6MYIh6TPokqw&s=03)

Gate13boy

"Livestock did indeed champion rising interest rates for Lloyd’s"

That's right me and financial experts were call for higher interest rates now I see the financial experts are saying later in the year when the yield curved drops off and interest rates start dropping UK banks will be in a good position to rise,

I hope so

Https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-12925515/amp/Handy-podcast-boost-property-tycoon-Nick-Candy.html

Audioboom has set it's sights on making record revenues

The group, whose top investor is property tycoon nick candy hopes to strengthen it's position as one of the biggest podcasts publishers in the US, it added three shows to it's network which is expected to generate more than five million downloads a month next year

It's podcasts created more than one billion advertising impressions for the first time last month

Bank of America has cut its inflation estimates for the UK and broguht forward its expectation of when the first UK rate cut will happen.

Its 2024 forecast for headline inflation drops to 3% (-40bp), while 2025 falls only 10bp.

"We expect core inflation now to average 3.8% in 2024 (-20bp) and 3% in 2025 (-10bp)," it said.

"Disinflation is likely to happen faster than we thought a couple of months ago, but it is still much slower than elsewhere, particularly when it comes to services inflation," BofA said.

It still thinks the UK still has a "persistent inflation problem, despite recent improvements."

"However, with faster disinflation, there is less need to keep real rates as high as we thought before."

Hence, it nows expect the BoE to keep Bank Rate on hold at 5.25% until August 2024 (from February 2025 before), and expects a cutting cycle of 25bp per quarter from there.

The UK will be the last of the major central banks to start the cutting cycle and it is likely to move slower, at least compared with the ECB, the bank preedicts.

Shares in Lloyds Banking Group are up around 1.1% after Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) named it as its top UK banking pick.

“Deposit mix migration has slowed down during Q3, which could make 4Q [net interest margins] less bad than feared and provides better visibility for 2024.”

“We re-iterate our positive view on UK banks, and see Lloyds as Top Pick.”

For Lloyds, the broker forecast [net interest margin] would fall 6 basis points quarter-on-quarter to 3.02% in-line with company guidance and consensus.

For 2024, it predicts a 2.94% NIM which is also consistent with the guidance of "below 3%".

It estimates a £500 million provision release related to the write-back of the Telegraph debt in December, which leads it to raise its share buyback expectations from £2 billion to £2.5 billion, higher than consensus at £2.2 billion.

“On 0.9x [tangible net asset value] for a 13% [return on tangible equity] 2024-2026E, we re-iterate our ‘overweight’ on the stock,” the bank said.

Gunsup

"The attack. For sure that is the case"

Lloyds is UK focused bank, just wait till rates start dropping and Lloyds will be back over 60p