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Recovery in private sector output gains momentum in January, but Red Sea crisis hits manufacturing supply chains and pushes up input costs

Key findings:

Flash UK PMI Composite Output Index(1)at 52.5 (Dec:

52.1). 7-month high.

Flash UK Services PMI Business Activity Index(2) at

53.8 (Dec: 53.4). 8-month high.

Flash UK Manufacturing Output Index(3) at 44.9

(Dec: 45.5). 3-month low.

Flash UK Manufacturing PMI(4) at 47.3 (Dec: 46.2).

9-month high.

Data were collected 11-22 January

January data revealed a stronger upturn in UK private

sector output than at the end of 2023, led by a further

rebound across the service economy. The rise in service sector activity was the fastest since last May, where as manufacturing production decreased to the greatest extent for three months. The latest survey also indicated a return of modest private sector employment growth at the start of 2024, supported by improving demand conditions and higher levels of optimism towards the business outlook. Private sector firms meanwhile recorded the steepest rise in input costs since August 2023, driven by renewed cost pressures in the manufacturing sector. There were widespread reports of higher freight costs in the wake of the Red Sea crisis. Moreover, global shipping delays meant that suppliers’ delivery times lengthened for the first time in 12 months and to the greatest extent since 2022

Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said the country will cut the reserve requirement ratio for banks in early February

The FTSE 100 is expected to post modest gains when trading starts on Wednesday ahead of PMI data and as the US earnings season rolls on.

Spread beting companies are calling London's blue-chips up by around 28 points

It's encouraging to see directors have skin in the game

Https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/riyadhs-multi-billion-ev-dream-risks-crashing-into-reality-2024-01-23/

Https://www.astonmartin.com/en/campaigns/dbx707-testdrive-bb

The FTSE 100 is expected to start the week on the front foot after strong gains on Wall Street on Friday.

Spread betting companies are calling London’s blue-chip index up by around 28 points

The economy will pick up this year in a major boost for Rishi Sunak ahead of the general election, a report suggests.

The EY Item Club said it now expects output to rise by 0.9 per cent in 2024, having previously pencilled in growth of 0.7 per cent.

Bentley Motors reported its third best ever year of luxury car sales in 2023, driven by record demand from wealthy consumers splashing out to personalise their models.

https://www.cityam.com/whats-driving-bentley-sales-wealthy-buyers-paying-to-have-their-name-spotlit-on-the-ground/

A ‘technical’ recession is now more than likely to be confirmed when the next official figures arrive.

The UK’s economy shrunk 0.1 per cent in the third quarter of last year, and October and November figures haven’t looked that much prettier.

The question now is whether Brits spent enough in December to keep us out of the red – and perhaps, save much embarrassment for the government .

A technical recession is confirmed when a country records two consecutive quarters of negative growth – so whether or not the UK enters one is on a knife-edge.

https://www.cityam.com/economy-latest-data-makes-a-technical-recession-seem-almost-inevitable/

UK retail sales slump points to new risk of recession

LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - British retailers suffered the biggest drop in sales for almost three years during December, raising the risk that the economy entered recession late last year, official data showed on Friday.

The Office for National Statistics said people doing their Christmas shopping earlier than usual - especially for food - contributed to retail sales volumes shrinking 3.2% between December and November.

It was the biggest drop since January 2021 and it left the level of sales at its lowest ebb since May 2020.

Audioboom's CEO, Stuart Last, commented: "The latest Triton US podcast ranker highlights how Audioboom is continuing to build our position as a leading podcast publisher. The Audioboom Creator Network drives strong distribution for our podcasts with our newest signing, Matt & Shane's Secret Podcast, leading the way. We're focused on growing our network and are on track to move up the rankings in 2024."

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is convening a summit with bosses from the UK’s largest banks to discuss concerns that their poor share performance is preventing more lending to the wider economy.

Senior executives from Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, Natwest and Santander have been called to meet with Hunt next Tuesday, City A.M. understands.

The meeting, first reported by Sky News, comes as the UK’s big banks prepare to release their fourth-quarter results in the coming weeks.

https://www.cityam.com/chancellor-to-meet-with-lloyds-barclays-and-natwest-executives-over-share-slumps/

Https://bnnbreaking.com/world/uk/lloyds-ceo-charlie-nunn-warns-of-potential-surge-in-inflation-amidst-global-instability/

NoahsArk

Lots of regrets not selling this is on a slippery slope now 192 not looking good, hopefully it will pick up Q4 results end of February

Https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/why-aston-martins-new-investor-is-good-news-for-f1/10566650/

News is emerging that the company could face a £1bn fine as the Financial Conduct Authority investigates practices around motor loan commissions. Should shareholders be worried?

https://www.fool.co.uk/2024/01/16/what-could-a-potential-1bn-fine-mean-for-the-lloyds-share-price/

Https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/vantage-revamp-the-next-step-in-aston-martins-sports-car-overhaul

August cut in rates seen more likely after inflation spike another 8 months going sideways 😧

The US investment bank has also raised IAG, the owner of British Airways, to ‘buy’ from ‘neutral’ and lifted its price target to 238p from 219p.

Shares in IAG are up 0.2%.

August cut in rates seen more likely after inflation spike