Member Info for Lindon

Bought in... 22,466

mike... They have been waiting for this support package to be received since last August. As it was announced two weeks ago that the partners have received them, they have had ample time to counter-sign them. There should be no reason for it to take two weeks (and counting) in getting them signed off... and as it would be seen as a major de-risking milestone when they are, it should be a top priority to do so.

To see some genuine public commitment by the two supposed potential partners, something which incidentally has never publicly happened to date... and who are said to have substantial funds just ready and waiting to be released on this project.... would go along way in influencing the market to consider re-rating the sp to a higher level. There have been too many delays for the market to consider this any where near being de-risked till it gets a public commitment that go beyond all NCCL/ Hanno's utterances.

Of course formal acceptance of the restructure is good to see but it didn't shift the sp and was never going to! The market has had acceptance priced in for this from the get go. The alternative was for the lenders to have called in their loans long ago, and no-one was going to do that at this stage. The sp was never going to go "boom" and "whoosh" with the market setting a new sp base rate (despite all the false claims on here)... simply because of an entirly expected formality being completed. The sp hasnt even blinked, its stayed completely in it's recently established trading range.

The market knows that this agreement in no-way de-risks the project, despite the further false claims on here that it has. The market has told you exactly that today! Has Hanno warned... it was a distraction! And it's never been anything more than that.

The market will only consider the project is starting to be properly de-risked once the LoA and MOU documents have been counter signed by the supposed potential partners... and the delay in even that, which should have been a straightforward formality... isnt inspiring confidence!! And that then followed up by the signing of a JDA which is not realistically expected to happen till the end of January at the earliest. Plenty of time for cheap top ups!

TtP... Which news do we get next? You giving up the sound of your own posts and continually ridiculous ramping would be a pretty good start.

Yep, it also has the potential to be even more positive. Now this has had the ok for paediatric use in Europe there is every chance it'll also be taken up in Japan. That could also have the potential for opening up a tad more general interest in Fluti from over the pond!

The litigation hearing in front of a High Court Patent judge (which is being instigated by GSK) is scheduled to start in the Patent Court next week. As per usual in these cases... a 5 day window has been booked into the court diary. If VEC lose the action it's possible that the downside should probably be limited to bearing the cost of the action... plus of course GSK will hang on to the capped £15m. per yr royalty money that has been withheld since July 2016.

Also losing this hearing could cause VEC to have a re-think and cancel the scheduled USA trial by jury action which has been instigated by VEC.

I don't expect a loss reulting in the company not getting what they haven't got anyway... to have a major downward impact on the sp. On other hand positive sentiment plus getting their hands on all that lovely dosh would indeed have an impact on the sp! I very much doubt that they'll win but live in hope and fingers crossed.

"Following interactions with US FDA, the Open-Inhale-Close dry powder inhaler device has the potential to be developed as an AB-rated substitutable drug-device combination for generic versions of the GSK Ellipta® portfolio".

"Pharmaceutical and device development work has progressed in parallel with partnering discussions. The new device is an evolution of Vectura's lever-operated multi-dose [LOMI] device and builds on Vectura and Hikma's shared experience with the VR315[US] programme, enabling accelerated development under this new agreement".

They now have priceless experience gained of what's needed to meet the FDA stringent requirements through the prolonged effort to bring generic Advair Diskus development programme to completion.

IMO, going on this all the rhetoric.... there is a strong likelihood they've been preparing for the first trials of a substitutable generic version of Breo® Ellipta to be starting as early as next spring. I also believe they are the only game in town in the generic substitutable Ellipta 'space'. They have around 4-5 years start on any other possible generic Ellipta player... due to already owning the device IP. Others would have to start device trialling from scratch.

This partnership plan has the potential to at least halve GSK's eventual projected $3Bn p.a. market for their Ellipta range. There's a gonna be a war starting very soon imo.

Air Partner announces that it was notified on 7 November 2018 that Mark Briffa, the Company's Chief Executive Officer, has transferred 230,807 ordinary shares of 1 pence in the Company ('Ordinary shares') to his wife, Michelle Briffa for nil consideration, on 5 November 2018.

Interesting times! Emma Walmsley knew this was in the offing, but she can't be happy about this deal. The fact that she didnt make any early moves... (especially given VEC's recent low capilisation figure) to forestall this agreement, could indicate there might yet be more surprises to come on the subject of generic Ellipta during of the litigation hearing.

It would also be interesting to know what the clauses in this partnership agreement with Hikma stipulate in the event of Emma deciding she wants to go ahead and remove VEC from the game board. I also wonder if Hikma would be interested acquiring a new generic device wing! A 'big boys battle' for VEC... could quite conceivably commence very shortly!
The sp could well start ticking up again from here once the market gets fully tuned in to what the overall impact of this is going to be.

"he generics business continued to perform ahead of expectations, despite a challenging US retail market, with continued price erosion.
“We have made good progress with our cost reduction initiatives, including the consolidation of our manufacturing and distribution facilities, and this is supporting the strong improvement in the profitability of our generics business this year,â€￾ Hikma said.

The company added that it had signed an agreement with Vectura to develop and commercialise their Open, Inhale, Close (OIC) dry product inhaler (DPI) platform, including generic versions of GSK's five Ellipta DPI products.

"The generic respiratory market is a key area of focus for Hikma. This agreement leverages the investment we have made and the experience we are gaining through our generic Advair Diskus development programme," it said.

Hikma will make an upfront payment of $15m to Vectura with $5m payable on transfer of the first product to Hikma's manufacturing facility to enable clinical manufacturing".

not a brilliant agreement, which is why the sp has dropped back at bit already. Hickma have screwed out a good deal from their own prospective, it could have been better from VEC's prospective. With VEC being firmly under the cosh and having to deliver at least something... probably a case of 'beggars can't be choosers. Still, it's what we've been waiting for and at least things are now moving on... although it'll be a couple of years before we see anything tangible form this, hopefully and together with a successful outcome form the litigation issues... the sp will now be allowed to have some normal breathing space.

...rather good timing by Prudential wasn't it!!!!?

Yep, it could go either way from here. I doubt we will get the outcome of the litigation for quite some time after the hearing has been completed. It's quite normal to take even a couple of months. I'm expecting/hoping the phase 111 trial results will be announced sometime soon... those results will be far and away more significant than the earlier trial. Fingers crossed it's good news and we'll be looking down, if it's bad we could well end up looking up from the current sp level!

The Hik trial for generic Advair is still having its re-run so dunno if we'll get much on that till it's completed. The timescales for market launch, working backwards from their stated/hoped for launch date of early 2020 and allowing for several months from FDA submission to approval... and from that to scaling up production... seems to point to the trial probably being completed mid next spring.

I think it's those phase 111 results we'll be getting next... it also could be that any prospective partnership for the Generic Ellipta plans will be delayed until the litigation issues are resolved. Hope not but the outcomes could cause a delay due to a 'play safe and wait and see' situation for any prospective partner.

Many balls stil in the air. This stock certainly needs patience, also disappointing that the sp has been kept firmly under lock and key whilst the Pru have been busy acquiring 31 million shares, under 'normal' conditions that would have seen a positive uptick in the sp. It once again shows up that the sp is certainly being 'managed'.

If it is being 'managed' (and I'm confident it Is) then upside of that particular 'idea' is that imo the sp is at a falsely low level. But, and although obviously disappointing... the short term intraday sp isn't important for a Pharma investment if looking outwards a couple of years. I remain confident that this will substantially re-bound over the next couple of years unless it's bought out first.

Only one fund, Conner, Clark and Lunn Investment Managmeng are short VEC (0.6%)

Perhaps quite strongly indicative that not many are willing to bet against VEC. Also seems that Prudential with a 31 million share buy are positively betting on them being successful on all fronts.

Prudential must have some real confidence in VEC's future by entering the fray at this time... an inaugural buy of 31million shares and giving themselves a just over 5% holding.

Yes... and imo the reason is Kyorin have today reported results on sales for Q2... which also included Y6.1Bn for H1 FY19 for Flutiform. Y0.7Bn ahead of last year and Y0.4Bn ahead of market estimates.

Patents Court trial/hearing set for Monday 19th November: Cat: 4. Glaxo v Vectura. Case Ref: HP-2017-000011.
Claimants Counsel: Justine Turner QC & Geoffrey Pritchard Solicitors:
Defendants Counsel: Andrew Lykiadopoulos & Anna Edwards-Stuart Solicitors

5 day window allowed for the hearing.

That article on corruption certainly shows up why the the big guys want to see some bonafide confirmation of intent from the Africans.

I also expect AFC will further delay their agreement to the restructure terms until the new appointment has been made and a confirmation letter/MOU has been forthcoming.

Unless that letter/MOU is received very shortly then it's pretty likely imo that AFC will take the same view and delay agreement to the loan restructure.

I think it's looking rather realistic to expect the can to be kicked a bit further down the road on the the fast approaching November 5th.

The Chairman/CEO post may well have been advertised around the end of August... but positions of this seniority are more often than not filled after the fulfilment of a 'head hunting' procedure with a couple of ideal identified individuals invited to apply. It's also likely at this level that whoever is finally appointed will be able to take up the position for some time ... due to having to serve a contractual period of notice and handover in their current employment.

MrBB, there has been many articles and complaints made about the practice of electronic (algo) trading, where millions of trades can get executed in millionths of a second... much faster than the blink of an eye. All the big trading institutions do it and £millions are made by the traders acting on behalf of their clients very few seconds. Its a massive subject. No- one likes the advantage it gives them but no-one has so far had the wherewithal to grab it by the short and curlies and put a stop to it. Far and away too many vested interests. And it's not illegal. It's still simply buying and selling in a market! The fact that it's being done in a way to gain a substantial advantage at the expense of others... is neither here nor there... unfortunately! It's a cruel old world using big boy rules in a big boy game.

VEC stock is held in huge quantities by some very large institutional managers... they are the owners of the company, they could stop it if they tried by putting the squeeze on and buying up the sells but they won't because they do it to others also! it's likely (imo) that it's a hedge fund acting on behalf of a third party (GSK possibly!???). I think the trading patterns show it's also most likely an American one... its main impact is almost always after the American market opens in our late pm's.... and I also think it'll be a privately run hedgie thats beyond the scope of our normal disclosure rules. It's possible it's acquired truly massive amounts and percentages of VEC stock over the last 10-12 months. It's also possible (and by no means unusual) that two or more are in acting in collusion. Thats very often the case.

What normally happens in such circumstances is a buy out offer is eventually made and it's only then that the hedge fund/s shows its hand and uses the huge volumes of stock it's built up to swing the offer into it being a majority acceptance regardless of any BOD decision to advise rejection.

The recent buy out of GKN, a major British industrial institution, was a classic example of hedge funds operating under the radar. That of course is now in the process of being broken into pieces and sold off! No-one likes it... but no-one can stop it.

Sacking the CEO or even the whole VEC bod as some would advocate.... and installing another one... wouldn't make a scrap of difference!

But I may be wrong and every thing is in fact 'tickety boo' and above board :)

They received 'in principle support' from all lenders to enter into the process of restructuring the loan.

They only received 'in principle to support' from 63% of the lenders to actually accept the terms of the loan.

"The Shareholder Loan matured on 2 September 2018, however Ncondezi has received written "in principle" support from all Lenders to enter the Restructuring".

The Company has received indications from Lenders representing over 63% of the Shareholder Loan that they will accept the Restructuring proposal"

"The outstanding Lender indication is pending review of the restructuring documentation".

The group recorded a slight drop in profits from £18.1 to £18m and underlying profits before tax of £4.2m – a 2.4% increase. CEO Mark Briffa said he was pleased to report a “solid first half performance” which “continued progress against our strategy.”

However in its notes, auditor Deloitte pointed to the disclosure of the accounting issues, which included “inappropriate financial journals” used to “conceal accounting issues” and in some cases “inappropriately created and manipulated in order to avoid detection of the accounting issues”.

“Due to limitations in the company's ability to recreate historical accounting records, in respect of £3.4m of the accumulated £4.4m overstatement of net assets, the directors of the company were unable to identify which accounting periods and line items this adjustment related to.“We were unable to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence in respect of the £3.4m of the total adjustment described above,” the firm said.

“Consequently, we were unable to determine whether any adjustments to the above amounts for the periods to 31 July 2017 and 31 January 2018 were necessary,” it said.

“Our audit opinion for the year ended 31 January 2018 was modified accordingly.

It said therefore that the conclusion on the current periods statements was also modified due the “possible effect of this matter on the comparability of the current period's figures and the corresponding figures.”

“In June we fully completed our accounting review and successfully dealt with the issues arising from it. As expected, the latest auditor’s report flags the historic straight line treatment that was agreed for our full year results, we expect this to fall away going forward," an Air Partner spokesperson said.
This year is the final year for the current Deloitte audit partner, who stayed on to conduct the review work for the half year, and Air Partner confirmed that it would conduct a competitive tender for the 31 January 2019 year end audit.

“We cannot comment on individual companies, due to client confidentiality," a Deloitte spokesperson said.