Member Info for Likeitornot

It must be a strange time for the company - seeing their share price close to historic lows, but at the same time feeling that their prospects are stronger than ever. LSE showing buys as sells again today :-)

* 26.01%

Darren Morecombe is now outside of the Concert Party. Per the 2020 prospectus he had 3.99% of the Company.

So DM can buy up to a further 26.1% before he hits the 30% threshold, and the others now have an additional 3.99% headroom on top of what they had previously to make purchases before they hit the 30% limit.

Doesn't mean they will of course.

"the Group will not attain monthly EBITDA profitability in Q4 2023 as previously hoped". This implies that the £1.2m raised in August 2023 should probably have been more.

It would at least make it slightly harder for short term holders to find shares.

Guess they are weighing up the benefit to EPS vs. having another £1m headroom pre-Christmas.

I have developed something of a (probably unhealthy) interest in this company over the last few weeks, buying in again today. They have core competencies in some really interesting/sustainability markets, each one of which could be significant.

There are risks abound here, which is reflected in the price - but considering them now alongside other unlisted tech start ups I think they are realistically priced. There's a good chance there will be a fundraise coming (they've stated as much) - but it is also a possibility that their R&D contracts together with a fair wind and delaying some payments, will get them through to early Spring when they can sign up full supply contracts and achieve cash positive.

* Executive

I have to say that today's statement from the Chief Executive's reads well having had a quick scan this morning.

Interesting to learn that almost half of the sales come from pre-booked events/parties. Very good to read about their strong focus on training and investment in technology to manage/understand the customer.

It will still be a tough task to pull this all together and generate cash long term with all the challenges that exist in this sector, but the signs look promising based on their strategy which seems very clearly understood.

There's been practically no figures presented for 2023 at all.

Investors are flying blind hoping we're not going to crash.

Some of that recent selling was recent buying - mine. I had 2 tranches at 6.98p.

I suspect some other trades were also labelled incorrectly.

Being able to use customer subscriptions to purchase inventory is thankfully a redeeming feature of the Naked model and is presumably a key driver in managing margins.

Only a right VINO would do otherwise. ;-)

"The math isn’t complicated: When the share count goes down, your interest in our many businesses goes up. Every small bit helps if repurchases are made at value-accretive prices. Just as surely, when a company overpays for repurchases, the continuing shareholders lose. At such times, gains flow only to the selling shareholders and to the friendly, but expensive, investment banker who recommended the foolish purchases."

The real winner with VINO would appear to be Virgin Enterprises Limited who get an undisclosed royalty based on sales subject to an annual minimum which increases each year with CPI. This right to use the name (which is UK + Ireland only) ceases in 2029. I can't find any references to the %, but I am guessing its somewhere around 3-5% of sales - and presumably on all sales including those introduced by partners and non-consumer sales.

If this is the case, it is staggering that the company listed at the value it did and it would seem that the current valuation is still relatively generous in today's market.

Blackbird is a sleeper for sure if you mean 'a treasure waiting to be discovered'.

Having done some digging, I've no idea why anyone would want to be selling at this point. But thankfully they have and I've been able to build up a decent holding over the last month or so.

Their new product has massive potential. Check out Capcut (and its limitations), Tiktok's all-in-one video editor launched in 2019. This has close to 500 million users and now generates $100m in revenues. Elevate will be positioned above this, aimed at the global prosumer market.

If the BIRDs get this right, it will be transformational for their business.

...awaiting the forthcoming FY23 results announcement and update on trading before committing further here. I suspect that recent interest rate increases will be making quite an impact on what is already a precarious bottom line. Can this bar concept be run in a profitable way long term? In my heart I'd like to believe it can but I don't know in practice. Keeping things fresh and up to a good standard costs a lot of money.

It would appear that WORKS didn't buy any of their own shares yesterday as per the Listing rules (12.4.6), Premium Listed companies need to announce purchases of own shares by 7.30am next business day. But I could be wrong.

AGM Resolution 16 allows them to purchase up to 6,250,000 shares. So no I don’t think they need any more authority.

Topped up my holding this morning.

Big negative sp reaction to news, but BoD actually reported an increase in sales: "In the first half of FY24....total sales growth of 3.4% and a total LFL sales increase of 1.6%" and still £6m adj. EBITDA for FY24. MCap now £18m.

Plenty (£17.5m) of headroom in borrowings, as they are only dipping £2.5m into facility. They ain't going bust.

No mention of the share buy back? Perhaps they will wait a week and then announce whether they it is going ahead or they are holding onto cash for now. Hopefully they can buy a few shares at today's prices or better.

Now in the territory where the market cap is measurably less than the value that can be garnered by operating it as a run-off - not that I think that is the best option.

Assuming that the new management can put forward a credible strategy, this should start to become appealing to institutional investors looking for a business with scale as a relatively low risk recovery play.

I don't think the growth in the platform or business can be denied. So, hats off to them. It's just the mismatch in valuation. I think being 5th biggest as opposed to no. 1 or 2 makes things tough unless you can merge with 3 or 4 or find a novel way to monitise what you have.