Member Info for licker

I think the stops have been cleared yet its worth a shout

If they can't flush out sellers to meet this background demand then just out the bloody price up to get volume moving again

The recent hike clearly flushed out sellers to let shorts close out

There won't be much free float left at this rate and it will all be decided by the IIs and MM accepting a price they want and can't see them using the small free float as a basis for their price to sell

Dave can you really see the non PI investors accepting that?

Surely they would say the free float has had a short attack and it in no way represents real value and they won't use this as the tardsic for their share value as part of an offer

The PI free float value is a minor part in the overall value in obtaining the controlling interests for the IIs and MM

They will want a decent price not a suppressed price based on a short attack on the 10% free float in PIs hands

Oh ffs I did not say I'd use only debt. Re read what I said but to be honest I'd rather you left my thread as you are boring me

Me too

I do.think.this is a highly and unusual situation in that shorting had an exceptionally large impact on suppressing the SP given the low free float

It's given a rare gift to PIs getting in now to make very large gains

I just can't see the overwhelming majority of IIs saying ok fair cop you've played a good game on the small free float eith the PIs and so you can now use this to.have our shares a stupidly low price way below the valuations you are paying for other businesses based on the revenue multiplier method. I just can't see.it so its 4.50 or no deal and we get value as the business carries on its growth

Any clever clogs.on here able to do a DCF method valuation I'd be interested to see it. I could do it if someone can poin**** to.the 5 to 10.year FCF

Nope There are floating and fixed charged assets that can be collateralised should it be required or the equity lender could gear outside THG and lend it in

Your focus I'd very narrow iby assuming only property is available as collateral

Why are you getting obsessed with a small issue

Itsnot a large loan on the overall transaction value that's required and facilities already exist

Nope there arent any sorry its not a method. Plenty though where controlling interestis used fir valuation as the norm.

Unless yiu can find any but I doubt you will as I don't think it's a valid question

B1nky

Do you really think the IIs will go OK we will sell.upa small premium to the small free float

Come on man

Would you let the owner of a wheel on your car determine its overall value to get a full car. I'm trying to think .of better analogy

As i said ignore the free float it's not used for valuation when its so small so your question is flawed as doesnt make sense. If the flost was well over half it would absolutely make sense for valuation but it is not. You are asking me for evidence that has no relevance. Any buyer here is not really buying the free float they are buying the controlling interest from the IIs. The small free float is consquential but given the.governance that goes with.this set up its a pain. A well used valuation method for growth business not yet in profit is the revenue multiple method which is currently in the range of 3 to 4 or the DCF method which I have not calculated

Hope this helps with you learning mate.

Regards

Licker

You are confused again. Collateral ie security
and interest affirability usually determines debt level.

The risk is reflected min the interest rate

To trade to.profitability the debt isn't great in the scheme of things.

It's a small issue

Can I see your evidence to prove a bank won't fund this. I've done many deals where debt facilities go out to 10 years especially whete heavy infrastrurw investment means upfront cash denands are high. The business has alot of collateral to secure any facility on.

You are getting mixed up with unsecured debt vs structured debt. The whole point of structured debt is to secure long term loans for investment of infrastructure acquisition, biy and build or to cover the negative cashflow to profitability. Every business I've ever come across gas a mix of unsecured debt for working capital and structured debt for investment.

Soo g as the business plan accounts fir it and TSG has smashed their IPO prospectus put of the park.
Mm trained as an accountant in this specialist area. He's an expert in it

It's totally normal

I don't understand your concern with a high growth business trading through.its early cash loss periods to .profitability by an optimised mix of debt and equity

It won't be all equity funded. Equity is expensive vs debt so.any deal will be leveraged to cover cashflow through to profitability. May be used to cover capital too but the accountants work out how to gear the deal via a mix of doubt and equity to optimise the WACC (weighted average cost of capital) .its just normal business. The level of the leverage in any buy out to fund acquisition and trading to net cash positive from.trading is just.normal deal making for the PE firms
As THG is a mix of buy and build and organic its normal to need a few years of cash outflows but once that logistics capacity is filled it will be a cash cow. Maybe 500m to cover it of which 350 is already in the facility

I can't see it as a problem

Stop thos 2.50 crap. Like for like vs recent acquisitions this is 3 tines revenue so 4.50 to get full control. Ignore the premium to the tiny free float approach to valuation as acquitlring that is a meaningless thin end of the wedge. Its absolute garbage from people who don't understand the free float valuation is meaningless. It's the majority II interests that control this and MM and they won't give away interest for a low mark up on a piddly free float.

This 2.50 is a myth. Nobody had. MM won't have said it. It's a stupid number banded around by people with certain interests but it's nothing more than that.

There are some gob smacking idiots on here that think its all about the free float.

This is 4.50!!!
ITS ABOUT GETTING CONTROL WHICH MEANS THE IIs have to bebought and no way is the free float their guide for their stock

But thst I'd not hat you said. Re read what you said

Just.look at the evidence it's right there

1. Round 1 opening bid rejected
2. Shprts closing
3. New chair expert city man in PE deals
4. Whale investor taking high pre bid positions
5. Moulding recently indicating as much
6. Weak pound giving US investors great value
7. Us investors mining up to exploit cheap UK markets
8. Dirt cheap valuation 1 times revenue vs 3 to 5 times value for similar recent deals
9. Business separation

This will happen. I'm not top slicing

They are a disgrace. A well performing high growth business smashing IPO targets let down by an incompetent out of depth IR team.

Sack em.

Funny you've caught goldy .out
Look at his replies now he's totally triggered.

Funny to watch

I needed a laugh this.morning thanks Goldy

Be greedy when others are fearful. Done me great here and BP

Best investing advice ever

Looks like about to ignite the afterburners

Can't see it James it created f### all volume. PIs now stubborn. Top slicers seem thin on ground

Only way to fill whale order now is to put price up drop didn't work