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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54009642

Presumably this is in addition to the massive EU Stimulus package as well. Incredible!

Hi All,

Some of you have expressed surprise at my rash decision to sell most my holding the other day, and it's helped me realsie that was a mistake. In hindsight, my decision to sell was far too impulsive and driven out of frustration re this drifting below the point needed to be promoted to the FTSE100 this month, and also out of a feeling there were bigger gains to be made elsewhere... and now I've realised that was an error so have changed my mind and bought back in at a price that fortunately is actually a bit lower than what I sold for, so I've got very lucky there.

Why did I buy back in? because the investment case for DLG remains super strong, for all the reasons I've detailed previously. The upside isn't massive (25% I'd say) but the downside is near zero. So yes, now that the drift / retrace appears to have come to an end, it was an easy decision to buy back in.

The hardest bit was admitted that I made a mistake. Obviously have to eat a lot of humble pie with this one, so apologies to everyone on the BB for my really stupid flip flopping.

Short term target (over the next 9 months): 375p including more dividend payments. Same as before.

Longer term target: None, because I still feel DLG is not a buy-and-forget type of share. This view of mine hasn't changed one bit either. If I still own this share in 2022 I would be surprised.

DYOR, GLA, and sorry for being such a wally!

Hahaa I liked that one, Jolly!

Hi Jolly,

To be honest, it was a fairly impulsive move on my part, because I became fed up with the continual negative drift below the point DLG needs to be in order to be promoted to the FTSE100 (which I had been anticipating for a while). Will certainly be investing there again at some point cos I do see it reaching 20-25% higher (excl divis) in the months to follow, with the Q3 Results (Nov) and the FY Results (Mar) being the key catalysts for that. The latter especially. And also the eventual promotion to the FTSE100 when Brexit hits most companies not DLG.

OK cheers for the tip - I'll add TERN to my watchlist. Thank you :)

Helo Jolly,

Good to hear from you. Yes we hit 80p on Friday very v briefly. [I was busy working at the time so missed that peak, but otherwise would've taken been too tempted to take profits at that level, if I'm being honest.]

So yes, I would agree a retrace to 55p sounds reasonable, however it appears as though this may stay at this level the way things are looking, since the current 62p sp looks rather well supported to me.

Still a huge 42% discount to the DSE valuation. Understand there's some justification to the discount but it bodes well there's such a large disparity. I'm no expert when it comes to pharma but this feels like a really great company so I'm happy to hold for the time being, and may make a cheeky top up myself if this price continues to hold at this level.

Not seeing many other good opportunities out there. I sold out of DLG for a 17% gain (incl the reinstated dividend) and will look to reinvest there in a few months' time. I since took a punt on FRP because it's a good hedge against a recession, was 10% up, but sold out for a 2% loss in the end, because I made a mistake there not realising the profits in the AIM Admission Document did not take into account the profit sharing amongst the partners, and therefore it wasn't anywhere near as good value as I first thought (v frustrated with myself there). The other anti-recession share I'm considering is HAT but the risk v reward could be better, so I'm waiting patiently to see where the dust settles. MWE has also caught my eye (again) recently. Otherwise not seeing much. So was wondering if you have any ideas? (Not necessarily for now, but something to watch closely for in the months ahead)

Best of luck matey :)

Helo Jolly,

Good to hear from you. Yes we hit 80p on Friday very v briefly. [I was busy working at the time so missed that peak, but otherwise would've taken been too tempted to take profits at that level, if I'm being honest.]

So yes, I would agree a retrace to 55p sounds reasonable, however it appears as though this may stay at this level the way things are looking, since the current 62p sp looks rather well supported to me.

Still a huge 42% discount to the DSE valuation. Understand there's some justification to the discount but it bodes well there's such a large disparity. I'm no expert when it comes to pharma but this feels like a really great company so I'm happy to hold for the time being, and may make a cheeky top up myself if this price continues to hold at this level.

Not seeing many other good opportunities out there. I sold out of DLG for a 17% gain (incl the reinstated dividend) and will look to reinvest there in a few months' time. I since took a punt on FRP because it's a good hedge against a recession, was 10% up, but sold out for a 2% loss in the end, because I made a mistake there not realising the profits in the AIM Admission Document did not take into account the profit sharing amongst the partners, and therefore it wasn't anywhere near as good value as I first thought (v frustrated with myself there). The other anti-recession share I'm considering is HAT but the risk v reward could be better, so I'm waiting patiently to see where the dust settles. MWE has also caught my eye (again) recently. Otherwise not seeing much. So was wondering if you have any ideas? (Not necessarily for now, but something to watch closely for in the months ahead)

Best of luck matey :)

1.08M shares sold right at the close today has meant we've closed at 12.75p rather than 13p. Seems a little fishy to me. Wouldn't be surprised if some of those large sells are later deleted so the key thing is not to allow them to influence our decision-making.

Great to hear from you, BMN.AMG, and I'm delighted (and sorta jealous) to hear that you doubled your holding today - wise move!

Sounds great, Inhaler, sounds like this has much further to rise.

Bizarre how the share price has ended up in a super tight spread and just being held there at 62/62.5p. Wonder if it means anything...?

PSB, Welcome to the board - good to hear from a potential new investor :)

I'd recommend checking out the thread "Huge Buying Opportunity" and the unofficial "Bushveld Perspective" website which is the amalgamation of lots of research!

However in a quick attempt to explain why we're all so excited here...

1) The world is switching from fossil fuels to green energy sources at an increasing rate each year (a snowball effect).

2) That it is a recognised problem that when the sun doesn't shine or the wind doesn't blow these solar / wind farms stop producing energy, and that's why fossil fuels typically have to burn away in the background still. And it has become common knowledge that v large scale Battery Energy Storage Solutions (BESS) are the solution to this problem.

3) Vanadium Redox Flow Batteries (VRFBs) are the best type of BESS out there for this due to their unique properties. Also worth noting that VRFBs are also completely safe, whereas lithium batteries of the size needed for solar / wind farm energy storage are actually very dangerous!

4) All of which will massively increase Vanadium demand, and push up Vanadium prices. Current/historical vanadium demand has been 95%++ driven only be vanadium demand by the infrastructure and plane/car manufacturing industries. This new Green Energy demand will mean Vanadium prices rise to a new normal much higher than the current historical average of $40-45kgV.

5) Bushveld is the only vanadium producer on the London Stock Exchange, producing lots of vanadium already, and that is due to increase YoY from 2,931mtV in 2019 to 8,400mtV over the next few years. Despite covid-19's impact, production will still increase 25-35% in 2020 YoY.

5) Bushveld has one of the best CEOs in the world at its helm, who consistently seems to be in the right place at the right time to pull off the most remarkable of deals. This is how the NAV has increased hundreds of times over in the past 4 years.

6) We believe Bushveld will win some of the massive Eskom tenders. The tender for "Phase 1" (worth $415m) are going on at the moment, and we should hear news by year end. [Eskom = the South African electricity public utility company]

7) The reason the share price has fallen below 20p is due to coronavirus, which caused a 35 day break in production, but otherwise hasn't had a negative effect. In fact, we've since been told production should still increase, ferrovanadium prices have risen considerably since then (esp in China) and we've also seen the materialisation of the long-awaited Eskom BESS tenders. So it makes no sense why we still a 55-60% price increase to reach our pre-covid level.

For all of these reasons, my target price is 100p+

Hope this helps.

Bump of this thread - for potential new investors looking to research Bushveld.

Would highly recommend reading through the homegrown website full of research from many of us on this bulletin board

https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/

I missed it too - I was working!

Did anyone join the call?

Faramog,

I see where you're coming from. It does sound like Fortune should've caveated what he said / given the range there. So yes perhaps the messaging there seems a tad inconsistent.

However it is possible the videos were filmed at a time when they were aiming high for that 4300mtV figure (+46% figure), and it has only been since then that they have had to reluctantly accept this 7.5%-8% revision.

Who knows.

I can't disagree that the PR here leaves much to be desired (I've criticised it plenty in the past). As others in this thread have said, they should've given more updates, rather than stockpiling the updates into this Q2 RNS, and I agree with that too. All we can hope for is that the PR will improve with time, as we gear up towards the JSE listing etc.

And one thing I do find encouraging is that this RNS was written in a way that's easy to understand, whether you know Bushveld like we do, or have just stumbled across it for the first time.

Also we all knew about the 35 day lockdown. 35 days equates to 9.6% of a year. So a 7.5-8% reduction in the production range is actually still positive.

Faramog,

That's a big accusation to make on a flimsy basis in my opinion. You watched a video where he had to reiterate the 3,960 mtV - 4,300 mtV range that had already been given in prior RNSs. He couldn't deviate from that during a video interview.

The revised range is not even that different. We're talking about production increasing 25% - 35% this year, rather than 35% to 46%. The previous worst case production scenario has now become the best case scenario. That's how close the ranges are.

And, in light of how COVID-19 has impacted the vast majority of businesses much more than that, a single digit % impact is nothing. So there's no justification to be that harsh on Fortune & the company as a whole. If anything they deserve a pat on the back for managing everything so well despite a 35 day lockdown!

"Group production guidance is therefore revised to between 3,660 mtV and 3,950 mtV (previously 3,960 mtV to 4,300 mtV), subject to no further Covid-19 related disruptions. Even with the revision, 2020 production guidance is between 25 per cent and 35 per cent higher than 2019 Group production (2019: 2,931 mtV)."

jog99 - I completely agree. Had the company given updates more frequently, rather than waiting until this Q2 update, the sentiment and share price may have been higher. That's a fair point, and something we should communicate to Bushveld.

I know we've all criticised the RNSs in the past for being too complex/opague /aimed too squarely at those already in the know (rather than new investors); but this does not apply here at all.

It's very clear vanadium production has increased (despite covid-19!) - this is remarkable!

It's very clear that govt stimulus money around the world (from China and the EU) is pushing up demand for vanadium for infrastructure and should push up vanadium demand for VRFBs as well. That's the first time I've seen Bushveld make this clear link in an RNS.

And this Bushveld Energy update is hugely exciting in itself !

"Bushveld Energy

· Appointed an Engineering, Procurement and Construction ("EPC") company, which commenced the engineering phase of the vanadium electrolyte plant.

· The South African Department of Trade Industry and Competition ("DTIC") approved the electrolyte plant project.

· Signed the surface sublease agreement and the power purchase agreement ("PPA"). Obtained a debt financing term-sheet for the Vametco mini-grid from a French Development Bank, underwritten by a South African institution."

I'm one very happy guy this morning :) Now it's time for that top up!

Also, re 2, the reason given for not publishing the attendees who did the site visit is that it would've involved obtaining consent from each of the attendees to publish this data, etc ... and yet a few names are revealed in the clarification responses document. (e.g. Grupo Cobra, Bab**** Ntuthuko Engineering, and KEPCO are all mentioned).

Which again makes me think the lack of attendee list is a way of favouring those already in cahoots with Eskom, the IDC, and the like; and have therefore been preparing for this well in advance. Such as Bushveld. It feels very deliberate.

Been looking through the Clarification Responses document and I've seen that there will be a "notification of intention to award the contract during November or December 2020" before the contract is actually awarded in January 2021.

I've also been thinking about some of the Q&As and want to think aloud for a moment...

1. Do you think it's significant that they have given such little time for the tender, even with the 3 week extension?
As you'll see from the clarification responses, there were SO many requests to extend the deadline. Many asked for a 6-8+ week extensions, saying the deadline was too onerous. One pointed out there is usually 13-21 weeks given, rather than 4 weeks, between the clarification date and the deadline date. Some asked for late Oct deadlines, or even a 30 Nov deadline. Some cited reasons incl covid affecting their ability to travel over to S Africa. Etc.

What did Eskom do? They extended by 3 weeks only. Half of the minimum 6 week number I saw requested. Very harsh. But it clearly benefits those who have been preparing for this before the contract was even announced - like Bushveld.

2. Do you think it's significant Eskom have chosen not to publish the list of companies who attended the 20 Aug site visit?

I feel it does, because it makes it more difficult for different companies with experience in different areas to come together to form a JV. It would therefore benefit a company like Bushveld who have been working towards this tender well in advance of this tender even being announced.

3. Is it significant that the responses to the many questions about the lifecycle of BESS appears to be that it is a non-negotiable and if the batteries need to be replaced repeatedly over the 20 year period that cost needs to be factored into their bid?

Yes obviously. This shows that all of those bidders were hoping for some leniency so they could put forward lithium-based bids, which will now clearly add to the cost of their bids, and probably put them out of the running vs vanadium-based bids.

4. Is it significant there were questions from multiple bidders regarding the 20% of Contract Value threshold has to come from procurement spend from within South Africa, and the response was that it was a non-negotiable?

Yes obviously. This again shows that these bidders were hoping for some leniency but didn't get any. This suggests they're overseas companies with no links and possibly no need to use S. African companies ordinarily. The 20% threshold is so significant that they will need to either (1) form partnerships at a lightning fast pace to satisfy this and/or (2) it could end up inflating the price of their bids, making them un-competitive.

All in all, it is clear that the vast majority of potential bidders are struggling with the timescale of this tender, and are also struggling with some of the non-negotiables they have to adhere to for this tender.

All of which massively favours Bushveld !

H1 EPS will probably be about 12-15p I reckon. What are you expecting / hoping for?

Big 10% / 36p drop here by the way! Now more tempted than I was a couple of weeks ago