Member Info for Libero

Glad to hear you had a nice intimate wedding with your families.

Congratulations Paul & Su!

Wishing you all the best :)

Been super busy at work so may have missed this but have you got a link?

Was chatting to a reinsurance underwriter the other day about the dangers of large scale lithium batteries and so it would be nice a follow-up to the convo to inform him of this y'see

If reinsurers view lithium as too high risk, they may exclude it from Treaty renewals, and then charge substantial more when lithium battery risks arise as facultative opportunities, which would mean the insurers would have to charge more to the clients, which would drive up the cost for large-scale lithium batteries, and deters their usage.

We've reached that same point in other areas, where many (re)insurers refusing to cover bushfire/wildfire liability risks,
refusing to cover mines with huge tailings dams (look at the Vale disaster in Brazil and there's been a similar one since!), etc... and those who stay in the game do so knowing they can charge very very high premiums for the capital they deploy.

https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/focusrite-raises-forecasts-on-booming-demand

"Global oil demand has plummeted amid the pandemic, with BP warning that oil consumption may never return to its pre-pandemic peak. Similarly, OPEC has said any recovery in demand would be longer than previously forecast. The drop (along with a falling price per barrel that preceded the pandemic) has hit U.S. energy companies particularly hard, with Chevron and Exxon recently posting losses. The latter has doubled down on oil and gas while rivals have invested in renewable energies, reports The Wall Street Journal — a gamble when potentially facing climate change-related regulation."

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/news/oil-demand-has-cratered-5291474/

More good news for the wider green energy industry, alongside all the stimulus money on the way, and all the other businesses investing in this space.

Not all of that will benefit Vanadium of course but some of it undoubtedly will :)

Me too, jolly - it's hugely encouraging!

Glad we got a mention but Motley Fool articles are poorly researched rubbish usually, and this one appears to be no different, talking as if Bushveld's fortunes are somehow linked to electric vehicles!

We've had a strong blue start, up to 14.5p already today. Could this be the breakout we've been hoping for?

and it's clear that I called it right saying it was overpriced at 205p but, apart from the UK business which has been hit hard (and will be hit even harder with Brexit perhaps), Volution has actually proven to be much more resilient than I first anticipated.

Sadly, despite the 20% share price fall since my last post 2 months ago, I still feel as though this is overpriced and has further to fall. With the amount of debt the company has as well I would probably need this to drop 100p a share (if not a bit lower with the amount of debt) to truly get me to consider investing. Especially now that the previously suspended dividend has since been cancelled.

Will continue to keep an eye on this because I actually really like the company but for the mean time my advice remains to Sell.

Questions:

How much of last year's revenues would have come from offices? Because, whilst in the short term, I expect the company to do well from the need to deep clean offices that have been shut for long periods of time, and many offices are yet to reopen (I know of a few not due to reopen until Jan 2021); this is clearly not a sustainable revenue stream when many companies will reduce office space massively once their leases come to expiry.

Is anyone else a little intrigued about the contract with a Tier-1 Rail client announced in January has been referred to as being worth circa £500k and £400k depending on where you look? (Their own website's newsfeed says the lower figure!)
Don't get me wrong the contract in itself is very exciting news but it irritates me that they appeared to be inconsistent about the size of it.

Rail is going to be a very interesting one going forward. Since March, the Govt (or specifically the DfT) have effectively been taken control of the various lines under what it calls “Emergency Measures” but that's due to come to an end imminently. At that point, the DfT will have to decide whether to have the franchise back to the Train Operating Companies (TOCs), continue running with the lines themselves, or to delay the decision and extend out the Emergency Measures.

This concerns me somewhat because if the Tier-1 Rail contract being referred to is First Group’s South Western Trains and First Group never get control of that line again, then the comparatively massive contract may not be renewed.
https://www.transport-network.co.uk/Rail-firms-make-their-pitch-as-Govt-threatens-cash-squeeze/16720

On the other hand, the end of the Emergency Measures could mean TOCs need new cleaning services contracts, which could be very lucrative for REAT, now they are already working for a Tier-1 Rail customer.

Hope I don't sound too negative -- I'm merely trying to work out how high risk / high reward this is. Clearly this would need a share price increase of 35%+ increase to reach the over-subscribed placing price of 1.5p so things are looking favourable. Just keen to know what's what because I dislike nasty surprises!

Sounds like he would fit in nicely with Boris & his cronnies!

Oh god I remember SYQ. I lost 100% of what I put into that one (fortunately not much but still!)

...and you did warn me, Jolly - I should have listened!

Take that as a warning you lot

"What the Eskom BESS project ignites, is not only the ability to win large projects and expand the likes of Enerox and BMN but also the ability to showcase a new way of procuring battery storage, in the form of VRFBs and it could well be done with the biggest utility in

Africa and the World Banka, an organisation embarking on a $5BN 17,500GWh battery storage programme, with this Eskom project as its starter for 10.



That's why long standing BMN shareholders are so excited about BMN's prospects because we aren't simply talking about a vanadium miner suffering lower prices here. We are talking about a highly ambitious fully vertically integrated vanadium play, that saw this opportunity long before the likes of Largo Resources even woke up to it. So as slow as it all feels, they are in fact several years ahead of the pack and with their enormous vanadium deposits in S.A, are set to take full advantage of the opportunity, they themselves are driving."

"Why? Because such a contract, even if landed as just an off-take, would demonstrate clearly what this new vertically integrated vanadium business is truly all about and spur on a key BMN 2020 objective. "Investigate the business case for S.A. based VRFB assembly"



Now anyone that knows BMN well, knows that this business case was set out many moons ago and is directly attached to a min number of projects being realised over an extended period. CEO Mojapelo has stated the Eskom project alone wouldn't be enough but lets see about that.

Now off-take is the bare minimum that BMN shareholders could expect from this project. But the actual approach could also include electrolyte from the BMN/IDC plant or a JV with BE sharing in the full value chain of the project, from vanadium supply through to developer.

There is far more to add, that these little pages cannot tolerate, so I will add additional points after I have posted. I have been waiting a long time for this project to come around and the money end of things and its affects on BMN, is now finally coming to fruition

One important addition to the above insight on advantages that a #BMN led VRFB tender should have, is their vanadium rental product. RNS 7th Sept ; "We anticipate adding other rental agreements and VRFB companies to the partnership in growing the electrolyte rental model"

The announcement was for a vanadium rental agreement with Invinity for their Oxford hub projct for Pivot Power. A fantastic achievement in itself because it introduces the model to the UK and a western audience. However, given the fact Enerox is now tied to the BMN stable, it is inevitable that they will take up this model as well. That was made abundantly clear, with the announcement that Enerox would work with @AusVanadium to ; "assistance with arrangement of vanadium electrolyte leasing"



My view's that such leasing won't come from AV but more likely Enerox, because it is BMN that carved out this rental model and it took a great deal of time to achieve. So I see no reason to re-write the model, so long as AV and Australian legislation allows it.

What that confirms is that Enerox are in the vanadium rental game and if they are in it with AV, then they are going to be in it, with BMN. When we couple Enerox tech with localised vanadium supply. Add to it potential locally produced electrolyte and then add in rental model for the vanadium , which drastically reduces the upfront costs for both Eskom and the World bank, then we have a very potent and intoxicating concoction, which will be very difficult to ignore. Key point.

VRFBs have a poor history of beating lithium-ion to large scale project wins. However, they never had the owner of 2 of the world's 4 primary vanadium producers, in their corner before and a vanadium rental model with it."

"The above wording lends itself once again, to a desire to support technology that isn't yet matured. In my view, lithium-ion batteries from the likes of Tesla etc, do not fall into this bracket. EV industry is far enough advanced/incentive driven, to counter such support.

The idea is to support alternatives technologies that do the job better but have yet to secure the sort of business that can enable things like manufacturing scale up and localised assembly, which in turn reduces costs and makes these product more competitive. = VRFB

VRFBs born in S.A from a company where clear vertical integration is under way, that's creating S.A jobs for it and is tied not only to the 2 biggest VRFB manufacturers in the world but also is sharing its winnings with the S.A. government, falls fully under that bracket.

So thus far we have a client and more importantly a financier that is looking for technologies that drive local beneficiation, drives local jobs, local supply, looking to support fledgling battery storage technologies, that need these sots of projects, in order to mature.
1

In order to win this tender, a BMN (likely BE) led consortium, needs to have the requisite experience of building such projects. This is why BMN will clearly partner on this project. For me I don't see any reason to look beyond the 2 largest VRFB partners that BMN has.

Of those 2, for me, Enerox are the play here. BMN RNS 3rd Aug ; "Enerox has a global customer base with over 130 field installations over the past 10 years across five continents." "multiple batteries installed in 2008 and 2009 continue to still be in operation"

That's over 10 years. Why is that important? because the Eskom tender is looking for 20 years guaranteed performance. A feat lithium-ion battery suppliers claim but isn't proven. c. 7-10 years is more likely. So again lithium has a problem on this tender.

Where as VRFBs are coveted by BMN as being able to run for more than 20 years, without any degradation to the vanadium, such that it can be taken out at the end and re-sold. Lithium-ion can't do that. Furthermore. From the Enerox (formerly Cell Cube) website.



Enerox are able to demonstrate to any potential customers, that their batteries can run for over 28 years. Show me a lithium-ion company that can deliver that. To the RNS once more ; "a newly redesigned VRFB product. . . modular and stackable 40ft container base config" "that increases standardisation to reduce costs of manufacturing, field installation and maintenance." If a VRFB is going to win part of this project, then there really isn't much better experience or technology, than Enerox and right now, BMN owns a part of them and has a first refusal off-take with them for vanadium supply to their batteries. At 320MWh and 5.5mtV of vanadium per MWh, this first tender, if landed, would potentially call upon BMN, to supply c. 1,760mtV. That's over 40% of their full 2020 guidance and a game changer."

From BBN's twitter minus all the excellent screenshots of course!

"Eskom Battery Storage Project (BESS) Tender. Not very many people know this, but for the last 4 years #BMN has been implementing a long term strategy to position itself for the very tender that is currently in play at Eskom in S.A.

That project is for a combined 1,440MWh of battery storage, split into 4 packages, with the first 80MW (320MWh) package tender out and due to close its bid window on 30th Sept. For a company with VRFB ambitions, this project, right on the door step of BMN operating mines, is almost too good to be true. However, from history we know that BMN have partnered with the S.A. government's investment arm, the IDC, with the 2 parties sharing ownership of the electrolyte plant, that is also currently being built in S.A and a VRFB tested at Eskom.

It is the IDC that have effectively championed energy storage in S.A. and with it effectively delivered this ground breaking project opportunity. See my 2018 blog here, which is the first in a series of 3 i produced on the subject.



Bushveld Energy - Your Time is Coming thebushveldperspective.com

Some of the outcomes have changed since then but the essence and key findings, remain valid. The IDC champions the beneficiation of S.A. minerals, as a means to add value to S.A. and its mining. The World Bank is fully financing the battery element of this project, at c. $468m for 360MW. Meaning in theory the first 80MW tender, could deliver the winning team, c. $100m in new business. For the likes of Invinity and Enerox, BMN's new VRFB investments and off-take partners, such a project would be company making. More on that later.

Here's their take on why this project's so important for both S.A. and wider continent. "vertical integration in the battery storage chain (mining, manufacturing, operation), feasible in South Africa." VRFB's main competitor lithium, is not mined in S.A.



What S.A. does have is the largest managenese deposits in the world and some nickel and cobalt production. What it doesn't have is a visible intent by lithium-ion battery producers to drive local beneficiation, through these local deposits, although that could well change, now that Eskom is embarking on its large scale battery storage programme. However, no other fully vertically integrated battery storage value chain company, is currently partnered with the IDC and in S.A. where its not what you know but who.

Back to the World Bank. Here's their restructuring paper for the Eskom support project, which transformed a failing CSP project into the BESS project, we see today. http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/929211544210220055/pdf/Disclosable-Restructuring-Paper-Eskom-Investment-Support-Project-P116410.pdf… Page 8, item 29."

Looks as though the downward trend that was triggered by this going ex-divi has now been reversed seeing as we've moved from 289p to a 300p finish over the course of this week

If this continues we may find ourselves being promoted to the FTSE 100 after all, which in itself will trigger buy in from many FTSE100-focused funds/trusts

GLA :)

Superb from BBN, and yes I really liked his intro appealing to those who don't know the story already!

Monkshood,

Am currently looking into this and am curious by your comment that the reduced liabilities is because they had money from not lending it out which will impact future profits.

Does anyone know what sort of loans HAT gives out ordinarily? And do we know how much of their profits come from loaning out money?

Basically trying to work out when we can expect to see the impact of the reduced levels of lending.

And, more broadly speaking, I'm trying to estimate what their profits will look like, and why the share price has fallen from 315-20p down to 250-260p ish. Know some of it is to do with this going ex-divi on 3 Sept but there's clearly much more to it than that.

There certainly has been some profit taking here already and the sp has remained very steady at 62p ish.

Must admit I decided to take a slice myself but have kept the bulk of my holding in here because things look v positive.

Reckon that's guesswork but a fair guess.

I reckon DLG's promotion may happen in December but is more likely to happen at the next quarter due to Brexit. Because if we have as hard a Brexit as it looks like we'll have so many FTSE100 and FTSE250 participants are going to be significantly impacted. Whereas DLG won't be.

Having said that, the investor on advfn could be right. For all we know, the Q3 results that come out in November will cause the share price to rise back to 340p+ and then we'll automatically be promoted.

What I do feel certain about is DLG being promoted sometime in the next 6 months or so. It's just hard to pinpoint when exactly.