RE: Vametco Expansion and its Effect on Costs14 Apr 2021 22:09
BBN,
Thank you for your analysis and taking the time to explain that to us all here.
I've been wanting to work out what the production costs would look like going forward, once the Vametco and Vanchem Projects costs are no longer factored in, so this work you've done is a god send!
I'm delighted to see that you have worked out that we should "Vametco's total cash cost [come] down close to $21 per kg." If I've understood you correctly in thinking you're talking about total cost of sale (production, shipping, etc) then that's actually very close to my admittedly more finger-in-the-air estimate that cost of sales will fall to $20kgV next year.
Also you make an excellent point about the production target seeming bizarrely conservative. Especially, as you said, when you consider Vametco's has already achieved 880mtV in a Quarter - before this expansion project boosts that production capability even higher to more than 1,000 tonnes per Quarter.
So with Vametco reaching 4,200 tonnes with a total cost of sale of $21kgV from next year then we're looking at profits from Vametco alone being:
$58,800,000 @ $35kgV (where they are now)
$79,800,000 @ $40kgV
$100,800,000 @ $45kgV
$121,800,000 @ $50kgV - and we probably don't want it to go any higher than this to support VRFB adoption
So yeah, whilst I agree patience is required, it's clear that costs are going down (stripping out the unique cost of the works going on this year) at the same time as vanadium commodity prices are going up and expecting to rise further.
So it does not take a genius to work out that we're sitting on an incredibly cash generative and profitable mine here once this work is complete.
Thanks again,
Libero : )