The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
The 1st April RNS said: "Enerox is a leader among VRFB peers, with a more than 20 years development and production history, over 130 systems / 23MWh deployed. In H2 2020, Enerox secured 13 MWh in signed orders for its systems."
And then moved on completely to the follow-up investment, without explaining anything about the contracts totalling 13MWh worth of Vanadium Flow Batteries. We know 4MWh is for the Vametco mini grid, but what about the remaining 9MWh? Nothing has been communicated.
In fact the part of the RNS communicating ALL of Enerox's success in 2020 was just one small 12-word sentence, at the end of a paragraph, half way through a fairly lengthy RNS. It's almost as if the company make efforts to hide Enerox's success here.
By comparison, you have Enerox's peer, Invinity (IES), announcing every Vanadium Flow Battery win they get, regardless of size.
On 7th October, they announced wins totalling 7.8MWh of VRFBs in California, triggering a quick share price rise of 22.5%.
On 9th November, they announced a 1.8MWh VRFB win from the European Marine Energy Centre, triggering a quick share price rise of 19%.
On 24th November, they announced they had won a contract to supply a VRFB for a "utility-scale solar-plus-storage project to be built in South Australia", triggering a quick share price rise of 24%.
These regular bite-size chunks of positivity and clear comms meant that IES's share price rose 110% during Q4 2020 (as in 1st October to 31st December). They understand how to communicate success.
Meanwhile - putting the Vametco Mini Grid VRFB to one side - Bushveld presumably knew about but chose not to communicate ANY of Enerox's successes (not in individual RNSs or the Quarterly Updates). Enerox's success has remained a complete secret until 1st April. And even now, with that 1st April RNS, it's a secret what wins Enerox have had to reach 13MWh of VRFB contracts signed.
So there's evidently much more information yet to be communicated / revaled about Enerox's activities and success.
What are the reasons for this? There's 2 possible explanations in my mind:
(1) It's because Enerox's remaining 9MWh's of Vanadium Flow Battery/Batteries could not be disclosed for commercial reasons and signed Non-Disclosure Agreements being signed. If true, this could be hugely exciting. Because the unaccounted for 9MWh could be one relatively large utility-scale VRFB being prepared for one of the Eskom sites.
(2) It's because BMN know Enerox is destined for much bigger and better things and see 13MWh of VRFB as not being enough to shout about. I doubt this though.
(3) It's because the company's comms strategy is unbelievably awful and absolutely must change. Because regular bite-sized chunks of good news (providing that they are material) is evidently the optimal comms strategy when it comes to AIM - as proven by IES.
Let's hope it is the former!
Understand where you're coming from saying you do not want to flog Lemur for nothing, Faramog, but do you know how much money has been spent on developing Lemur? because I'm unconvinced it's all that significant nor do I think Lemur is really worth that much either, so there may be v few downsides to flogging it off.
This small non-producing asset is so far out of the strategy of the company it's not even been mentioned in a RNS in god knows how long (does anyone know?)
And, without even being mentioned, it's doubtful that many companies will be knocking on Fortune's door at all, let along keen to offer a large sum of money for it. If Fortune is waiting for someone to come in offering the right price for it, we could be waiting 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, or possibly much longer.
Meanwhile it is putting off all many of ESG and Green -focused funds/trusts/ETFs with strict 'No Coal' policies from investing in BMN despite all its green credentials and who knows where the share price would be right now if that roadblock wasn't there.
In my view, it would make a lot of sense to engage with a bank to value it and sell it off or help spin it off AfriTin (ATM) -style and realise value for it that way.
The sooner the better because the attractiveness of anything coal is only going south as time goes on. i.e. it would've been better if they had done this years ago. What's done is done, but why wait any longer?
In fact if they had done that years ago it's possible some of the finance deals / CLN would've all been at higher share prices, which would've helped the company achieve it's ambitions. In that sense I believe holding on to Lemur even though it is not doing anything, it not only counter-productive to the share price, but also has come at an indirect financial cost / opportunity cost to the company. And that will continue to be the case in future when the company inevitably needs more financing to realise its huge ambitions in future.
Consequently I feel Lemur is so detrimental to the share price and the company as a whole that the day we finally get the RNS confirming that it's being disposed off / spun off / sold off will be the start of a significant re-rate for this reason alone. This is why I include this in my list of about a dozen or so share price catalysts. Know it potentially could be a while off but it's clear it will happen eventually, and actually the recent "house keeping" suggests it could be round the close at hand ...
Think there’s been a misunderstanding here.
I’m incredibly complimentary about the company and it’s progress as a whole in my correspondence with the company. My emails are merely suggestions. Nothing more. And, for the avoidance of doubt, I know Fortune & Co are doing an incredibly amazing job. There’s no way in hell I could achieve one iota of what they’ve done, taking this from a small junior mining explorer to what will soon be the world’s largest vanadium producer outside of China, the owner of the world’s largest electrolyte production plant outside of China, and the partial owner of one of the most successful VRFB companies, in the space of 8-9 years. It’s amazing what they’re achieving here!
Having said all that, I see no issue in making suggestions as a long term investor in the company. And, seeing as the emails seem to be well received, I think the company would agree that it’s okay for investors to voice their opinions. Especially if they’re productive .i.e. making suggestions to improve on comms, suggesting they apply for the LSE Green Mark (which they said they didn’t know about until I had emailed them about it), etc.
Also feel it’s worth noting that I did send a thank you email last week when it was clearly that they seemed to really understand the campaign and had evidently responded to it. Because surely we can agree that the company probably would’ve kept quiet re Enerox until the next Quarterly Update rather than issue that 1st April RNS
So please don’t misinterpret me not the campaign for better comms. Our intentions come from a good place.
And fair point re the 95%+ comment. I have not done a poll to so I take that bit back. But it’s evident that a very very large number of investors feel the same way.
Please don’t let the % detract from everything else I said, which I still stand by, including the comments about us being on the same team here.
So, whilst we may disagree, let’s keep things civil and keep the focus where it should be.
Spot on, Sanchez. Myself and a good 95%+ of other holders completely agree with you! The valuation gap (between inherent and market valuation) has got wider and wider and wider, and is now impossible to ignore or dismiss.
As you said, the vast majority of "companies revamp listings, overhaul brand, install marketing directors, undertake Comms and PR campaigns, strategise newsflow etc" precisely to avoid the sort of valuation gap we now have; and BMN’s failure in this regard (merely on comms) is why we are where we are.
BBN, Alfa & those who contribute to the Bushveld Perspective, Sanchez, myself, and many others have made continuous efforts week after week, month after month, year after year, to fill the void when it comes to comms, but – despite some success – nothing is half as effective as what the company does themselves.
We’ve therefore sent emails to the company to advise them of simple easy ways to communicate the story better but often only received emails back saying that they appreciate the feedback but they will continue on as normal. Often it’s a near identical stock response reply too from Chika or none at all. Hence why some feel she should go.
Consequently there’s an overwhelming majority of Bushie investors feeling incredibly frustrated & disappointed by the comms falling short. Hence why there’s this campaign has begun. Campaigns only start when a large group of people feel very strongly in the same direction about a particular issue of course. i.e. this is a very natural development here.
It's also a very positive development. Not to be mistaken for unproductively spreading negativity – otherwise I wouldn’t be involved of course!
And I’m delighted to say that I believe the campaign is already showing signs of success. The emails sent 2 weekends ago were met with an almost immediate response, with 3 media interviews, Mikhail & Fortune attending the Investec conference, and a great RNS in the days that followed. More recently we’ve had the BMN twitter page share BBN's blog and say that they hear us too.
So well done to all of those involved in the campaign - we're doing a sterling job!
And for the tiny minority of investors who disagree: Please may you try accept and understand the reason the campaign is here is because the vast majority of investors are justifiably frustrated by the comms -- even the Fortune & Co are beginning to get it! -- and let it be.
Because ultimately the campaign is merely trying to help the company help themselves. And, as wise Pdub rightly said, there’s way more that unites us than divides us. So please stay, Alfa, we need you.
We’re all on the same team here in believing this is the most undervalued investment opportunity in the world right now; that the share price should be and will be a MULTIPLE of where it is right now; and that the future is incredibly exciting!
Have a great weekend all : )
100% agree MessDog. The comms have been awful and it's the only reason for the huge valuation gap. https://mobile.twitter.com/Vanadium_Libero/status/1379809605224701953
This is true not just for the private investor "masses" but also for larger investors we need to get on board too. It absolutely must adapt to the AIM environment because that's the only place we're listed.
Alfa - I'm a huge fan of yours but you must stop looking down on the Average Joe. 99.9% of us already invested are Average Joes. I'm consider myself an Average Joe. And we need as many of them as we can possibly get for the share price to reach fair value and that's important for the company to reach its full potential because, by failing to do that over the years, they've ended up doing finance deals at much lower prices than they would've done otherwise. e.g. As amazing as it is that Orion are invested in BMN, the share price agreed upon should have been much higher than 17p. So I believe you should be backing this campaign for better comms.
Explaining the vision and the story in a clear, simple, and easily digestible way and Releasing exciting news without unnecessary delay in regular bite-sized RNSs >>>>>> Leaving PIs to tell the story clearly to others and sitting on exciting information until the next 3 monthly Update where the best bits are buried 1000 words in.
You know it makes sense. So come on, Alfa, get behind this matey!
> Incredibly cheap market valuation at present versus any analysis of Fair Value, which is a multiple of where we are now.
> Not only is this looking super strong based on the fundamentals, it is looking incredibly strong on a technical / charting basis as well. With both Noel Borg, Bonker99, and now Swazers Charts all posting on twitter in the past 2-3 trading days that they expect a rise to 24-25p based on their chart analysis alone (even without any news!)
https://mobile.twitter.com/Vanadium_Libero/status/1379499736105910272
> Excellent mining stock and increasingly will be seen as a GREEN stock
- Not widely perceived to be a Green Stock but this will change now that BMN have now realised their ambitions to become a fully integrated vanadium producer because they have captured every part of the supply chain, with 100% of the vanadium; 55% of the electrolyte that will be produced from the production plant; and 25.5% of the VRFBs produced by the best VRFB Manufacturer (Enerox). This will cause us to multiple-bag on this aspect alone. Just look at Ganfeng's P/E ratio!
> Very favourable coverage in the investment media.
- Investors Chronicle, Financial Times, Myles McNulty, and many others have all tipped BMN at the start of the year.
- Out of hundreds of companies, Stockopedia came up with their Top 20 tips for 2021, and BMN came 3rd (and will do better than the two above it I believe)
> Vanadium prices have risen massively in recent weeks, and are expected to reach $45gV at the bare minimum this year, and BMN's share price always seem to track the commodity price sooner or later! (there's a huge gap at present!)
- Vanadium prices are now rising so fast I believe we will see $45kgV in the next 4-5 weeks
FOR PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS, please read Lionel's Summary here to kick off your research:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/lionels-big-picture-428
Target price for 2021 : 100p+
Tons of Newsflow in the pipeline. Please go on my profile to see the full list of RNSs / Catalysts that we're expecting to help us reach that 100p+ share price target.
DYOR & GLA : )
Superb reaction from the official BMN twitter but must say @TanSu is spot on with her response saying not enough people 'get it' because the comms here have been lacking!
https://twitter.com/tan_su1/status/1380190446022983683
The good news though is that the company are clearly now listening and there are positive signs of improvement. And in fact this tweet alone is a positive sign!
james - Completely agree. 31p is ridiculously low IMHO. Wonder if they've missed a few assets off / failed to add up somehow!
Looking at their most recent broker note - they've not even been able to spell "installation" correctly!
http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Bushveld_Q4_FY2020_10_February_2021.pdf
So I've decided that I'm going to email SP Angel this weekend about this. Will share the draft on here for others to send if they wish to do so. And, if they do not see sense, then perhaps it's time for SP Angel to be replaced !
Ultimately though there is a consensus that we're massively undervalued with:
> SP Angel saying fair value is 31p,
> Alternative Resource Capital saying 46p or 29p when they're openly being v conservative,
> Chartists Noel Borg and Swazers predicting 25p in the immediate term, and Bonker99 now predicting 41.9p, etc.
Feels the whole world agrees we're hugely undervalued and the disagreement is by what extent. Something has got to give... and just one of the many catalysts mentioned in my previous posts could see us rocket
In the meantime, let's lobby SP Angel to pull their socks up, because they've been useless for a while now!
Would highly recommend you watch the whole thing when you can but here’s an extract from it that I thought was excellent!
https://mobile.twitter.com/Vanadium_Libero/status/1380073607292989442
LionelGreen, Great to hear from you - hope you're doing well
You're right, that email address has not worked in months for some reason, so you need to send your emails to Chika.edeh@bushveldminerals.com (and you can guess Fortune's from that!)
FYI - I've just sent a follow up email chasing responses to my 26/03/21 email, offering to help if possible : )
Pdub, Thank you for that excellent message of positivity.
Your entire outlook on life in general is absolutely brilliant.
And, needless to say, we're two peas in a pod when it comes to being super positive about our Bushveld investment, and trying to ensure that the sentiment on the bb is not ruined by negative comments that serve no real purpose. In this sense, I'm pleased to see that we have regained our mojo in the past week or so, and that has translated to lots more buying of course!
Keep up the positivity - I really value all your contributions!
Best wishes matey
Dan : )
or for those who simply join the group of 350+ fellow Bushies, here's the link to the Telegram group:
https://t.me/bushveldminerals
As said before, I'd recommend people who are frustrated that we're still somehow sub 40p to email the company with your thoughts and feelings rather than posting it on here for all to see ... except Fortune & Chika who are the ones you would rather get the attention of!
Sanchez599, You're absolutely spot on. The only reason we are where we are is because the comms have been awful. It has nothing to do with the demonstrably huge progress that's been made.
As much as I love Fortune, he's historically been naïve enough to think that if you made progress the share price would simply rise regardless of the comms; and therefore the company has not released many RNSs unless they have to, and lumped tons of news into Quarterly Updates, where the most significant bit of news could be 1000 words into a RNS and therefore gets missed.
Even the RNS comms on Thursday last week should have been better in the sense it definitely should've been 2 separate RNS announcements:
(1) A Jan or Feb RNS for Enerox's success in 2020 since being acquired by BMN-led consortium.
(2) An RNS last week explaining Enerox's future growth is so meteoric and due to Enerox's VRFBs being in such strong demand that the BMN-led consortum was invested another $30,000,000. [And this was being paid for by selling off their IES stake for a huge profit]
These various avoidable communication own goals is why I've been emailing Chika (the Head of Investor Relations) on this topic since October and emailed Fortune directly for the 1st time on 26th March with a comprehensive email containing 15 points regarding comms (things to improve, easy wins, and ideas), and roughly a dozen people on the Telegram group joined me with this to reinforce the message. [If you wish to see the email - check out the Telegram group cos I'd prefer not to post it here]
And, whilst we have not received a reply (other than an acknowledgement email from Fortune), there has been a noticeable improvement with there being both Fortune & Mikhail at the Investec Conference, Fortune doing 3 media interviews, and (most notably) the Thursday RNS which triggered loads of media articles and social media buzz for Enerox.
In that sense, I'm delighted Fortune read and paid attention to the emails, and chose not to sit on the information in Thursday's RNS for the next Quarterly Update where it is likely to have been missed.
However, as Sanchez rightfully says, 1 RNS in months outside of the Quarterly Updates is not enough, and therefore it's important that we continue to email Fortune & Chika to keep the pressure on them to help them help themselves basically, and to continue to update the market with information in bite-sized chunks like they did last week.
Otherwise we're going to be starting from a much lower base when the multiple MEGA RNSs inevitably do land. (Please see my posts for details of how many we're expecting)
We're in for a very exciting few weeks and months ahead of us. I do believe we can reach 25p+ before some monster RNS arrives. If so, we will sail past 50p into brand new All Time Highs.
Onwards and Upwards : )
"Since start of 2020, the Ferrovanadium commodity price has risen 30% in China and a huge 50% in the Rest of the World.
#BMN’s production has also risen 25% in 2020 & will rise 100% by next year...
... Yet the #BMN share price has somehow fallen 12% since the start of 2020!"
https://mobile.twitter.com/Vanadium_Libero/status/1379809605224701953
On this basis, you would expect the share price to be close to 40p for the mining business alone, and higher still when production is confirmed to have increased by as much expected, and higher still with the Vanadium Commodity prices expected. We're therefore easily looking at north of 80p for the mining business alone in my opinion, valuing everything else at zero.
The valuation gap has therefore scarcely been wider than it is now. i.e. the fundamentals could not be stronger, not even counting the Green Energy side of the business.
DYOR but the upside is mind-blowing. So, with the sp catalysts in the coming weeks/months set out in my post yesterday, we can expect this huge valuation gap to close completely soon! : )
Yes, excellent news that the shorts have been squeezed, and the majority of the shorts have been closed already.
We still have a few million shares being shorted to squeeze further.
If they have any sense, these last remaining shorters will close this out urgently, because the share price is only going to continue rising!
Onwards and upwards : )
Great to hear from you again, Bonkers, and glad to hear you've recently doubled your holding! : )
Know that myself and others know the company & its fundamentals super well, but your technical analysis is always welcome matey.
All the best,
Libero : )
Hahaa yeah Dave77, it looks like we will have a run up to 25p again the way things are going : )
PS - I've been suspended on twitter for accidentally breaking a rule somehow (not sure what I did) so won't be able to post on there until the weekend now #ShortestTwitterCareerEver