> GREEN ENERGY RNSs/Calalysts:
> Enerox:
- Completion of further $2.5m of investment RNS
- Enerox supplying the VRFB in the world's first VRFB-powered ship - this should be RNS'd.
- Who knows what else but they clearly have other contracts on the go and in the pipeline from Thursday's RNS.
> Bushveld Electrolyte Limited ("BELCO")
- Electrolyte Plant Procurement stage completion.
- Electrolyte Plant Construction stage starting.
- Vanadium Electrolyte Rental Ltd ("VERL") rental contracts announced after the success with Pivot Power last year.
> Grid Battery Energy Stoage
- Eskom BESS tenders. There's 7 projects in "Phase 1"
- Other BESS contracts in South Africa now things have opened up
- "Other African projects such as the World Bank's 17.5 GWh energy storage roll-out programme" - as mentioned in the Corporate presentation here http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Bushveld-Minerals-February-Corporate-Presentation.pdf
MINING RNSs:
- Vametco Expansion this year
- Vanchem Expansion this year
- Production rising by another 700 tonnes of vanadium, despite the downtime associated with boosting Vametco & Vanchem's capabilities.
- The Mokopane DFS. Feel this one has slipped under the radar but this should be transformational because Mokopane has 298,000,000 tonnes of vanadium in the ground. This could be a game-changer!
OTHER RNSs / Catalysts:
- Move to FTSE Main Market
- Dual lising on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE)
- Disposal of Lemur
- Rebrand to a Green Energy stock
> EXTERNAL Catalysts: (as in outside of Bushveld's control)
- FerroVanadium commodity prices continuing to rise and breaking the psychologically significant $40kgV mark. This will definitely happen. The worldwide consensus is that we will reach $45-50kgV in 2021, and I actually believe we may be just weeks away from that.
So there are easily dozen, if not two dozen, bits of news that will act as a catalyst to the share price for it to smash through the all time high of circa 50p, through to 100p.
And you can currently buy sub 20p - the most crazy bargain!
DYOR & GLA : )
Please read Lionel's Summary here to kick off your research:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/lionels-big-picture-428
> Incredibly cheap market valuation at present versus any analysis of Fair Value - which is a multiple of where we are now.
> Not only is this looking super strong based on the fundamentals, it is looking strong on a technical / charting basis as well. With both Noel Borg, Bonker99, and now Swazers Charts all posting on twitter in the past 2-3 trading days that they expect a rise to 24-25p based on their chart analysis alone (even without any news!)
https://mobile.twitter.com/Vanadium_Libero/status/1379499736105910272
> Excellent mining stock and increasingly will be seen as a GREEN stock
- Not widely perceived to be a Green Stock but this will change now that BMN have now realised their ambitions to become a fully integrated vanadium producer because they have captured every part of the supply chain, with 100% of the vanadium; 55% of the electrolyte that will be produced from the production plant; and 25.5% of the VRFBs produced by the best VRFB Manufacturer (Enerox). This will cause us to multiple-bag on this aspect alone. Just look at Ganfeng's P/E ratio!
> Very favourable coverage in the investment media.
- Investors Chronicle, Financial Times, Myles McNulty, and many others have all tipped BMN at the start of the year.
- Out of hundreds of companies, Stockopedia came up with their Top 20 tips for 2021, and BMN came 3rd (and will do better than the two above it I believe)
> Vanadium prices have risen massively in recent weeks, and are expected to reach $45gV at the bare minimum this year, and BMN's share price always seem to track the commodity price sooner or later! (there's a huge gap at present!)
- Vanadium prices are now rising so fast I believe we will see $45kgV in the next 4-5 weeks
Target price for 2021 : 100p+
Tons of Newsflow in the pipeline. Please go on my profile to see the full list of RNSs / Catalysts that we're expecting to help us reach that 100p+ share price target.
DYOR & GLA : )
Surprised to see you here because we're having a blue day haha!
Haven't the time to respond at the mo but you're very much mistaken. The company's historic product costs has been $17-19kgV plus around $5-6kgV with the other costs involved in selling the product, so probably about $24kgV. However these costs will fall towards $20kgV as production increases because of there's huge economies of scale in the business model.
Meanwhile commodity prices are roughly $35kgV worldwide at the mo and are expected to rise to $45-50kgV in the coming months, and stablise / average out around that $45kgV price.
So I reckon you're looking at $45kgV - $20kgV = $25 of profit per kilogram sold.
This year the company will produce 4,350,000 kilograms
Next year the company will reach an annualised rate of 6,800,000 kilograms.
6,800,000 x $25 profit per kilogram (based on $45kgV average) = $170,000,000 Operating profit from the Mining Operations alone.
No doubt much of that Operating Profit will be reinvested into the business because the company is still very much in growth mode and has huge ambitions for Mokopane etc, which impact the Profit Before/After Tax and EPS numbers, but it'll still be a hugely profitable business in the near future.
And of course this year, with the millions being invested into Vametco and Vanchem this year, the production cost will look unusually high. However I would argue that this is merely a case of the 2021 Operating Profits that would've been made this year are effectively being reinvested into the business in advance (if that makes sense). But if you net that back to what it would've been without the $45m ish of investment into Vametco & Vanchem you'll see it's already profitable at these vanadium commodity price levels.
And the profits and profit margins are MASSIVELY going to improve over the next 6/12/18 months. It's v exciting!
"China's wrought vanadium nitride export volume rose 3,537.33% YoY in Feb 2021"
Export volume as in China exporting to the ROW? Well I would say that's almost entirely to do with China being very hard hit by covid in Feb 2020.
Remarkably, despite their own vanadium production & processing facilities, China are still are net importer of Vanadium, and that's why the vanadium price has risen there so significantly in recent months and YTD.
Great find! So have made a little tweet about it :)
https://mobile.twitter.com/Vanadium_Libero/status/1381733425732812800
Must admit I didn't realise there was a OTC listing, so thanks for sharing. It's interesting to see that:
- The OTC share price rose considerably about 125% in December, whereas we rose about 87%.
- This meant the Jan high was 60% of the all time high. If the LSE share price had done the same, we would've reached close to 29p in January.
-The OTC share price fall since the Jan high has matched our own 25%.
- But, since it rose higher on the way up, it is actually in a better place than our LSE share price.
So, whilst I still do not believe the MMs have that much power/control, we actually have underperformed ourselves on a different stock exchange. Which strengthens the argument for getting off AIM.
Which I’ve retweeted with BMN & Enerox all over it of course haha
https://mobile.twitter.com/Vanadium_Libero/status/1381534869390569472
> GREEN ENERGY RNSs/Calalysts:
> Enerox:
- Completion of further $2.5m of investment RNS
- Enerox supplying the VRFB in the world's first VRFB-powered ship - this should be RNS'd.
- Who knows what else but they clearly have other contracts on the go and in the pipeline from Thursday's RNS.
> Bushveld Electrolyte Limited ("BELCO")
- Electrolyte Plant Procurement stage completion.
- Electrolyte Plant Construction stage starting.
- Vanadium Electrolyte Rental Ltd ("VERL") rental contracts announced after the success with Pivot Power last year.
> Grid Battery Energy Stoage
- Eskom BESS tenders. There's 7 projects in "Phase 1"
- Other BESS contracts in South Africa now things have opened up
- "Other African projects such as the World Bank's 17.5 GWh energy storage roll-out programme" - as mentioned in the Corporate presentation here http://www.bushveldminerals.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Bushveld-Minerals-February-Corporate-Presentation.pdf
MINING RNSs:
- Vametco Expansion this year
- Vanchem Expansion this year
- Production rising by another 700 tonnes of vanadium, despite the downtime associated with boosting Vametco & Vanchem's capabilities.
- The Mokopane DFS. Feel this one has slipped under the radar but this should be transformational because Mokopane has 298,000,000 tonnes of vanadium in the ground. This could be a game-changer!
OTHER RNSs / Catalysts:
- Move to FTSE Main Market
- Dual lising on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE)
- Disposal of Lemur
- Rebrand to a Green Energy stock
> EXTERNAL Catalysts: (as in outside of Bushveld's control)
- FerroVanadium commodity prices continuing to rise and breaking the psychologically significant $40kgV mark. This will definitely happen. The worldwide consensus is that we will reach $45-50kgV in 2021, and I actually believe we may be just weeks away from that.
So there are easily dozen, if not two dozen, bits of news that will act as a catalyst to the share price for it to smash through the all time high of 49p.
Target price for 2021 : 100p+
Longer-term price target : Much Higher still!
And you can currently buy at roughly 17.50p - the most crazy bargain!
DYOR & GLA : )
Please read Lionel's Summary here to kick off your research:
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-articles-1/post/lionels-big-picture-428
> Incredibly cheap market valuation at present versus any analysis of Fair Value - which is a multiple of where we are now.
> Not only is this looking super strong based on the fundamentals, it is looking strong on a technical / charting basis as well. With both Noel Borg, Bonker99, and now Swazers Charts all posting on twitter in the past 2-3 trading days that they expect a rise to 24-25p based on their chart analysis alone (even without any news!)
https://mobile.twitter.com/Vanadium_Libero/status/1379499736105910272
> Excellent mining stock and increasingly will be seen as a GREEN stock
- Not widely perceived to be a Green Stock but this will change now that BMN have now realised their ambitions to become a fully integrated vanadium producer because they have captured every part of the supply chain, with 100% of the vanadium; 55% of the electrolyte that will be produced from the production plant; and 25.5% of the VRFBs produced by the best VRFB Manufacturer (Enerox). This will cause us to multiple-bag on this aspect alone. Just look at Ganfeng's P/E ratio!
> Very favourable coverage in the investment media.
- Investors Chronicle, Financial Times, Myles McNulty, and many others have all tipped BMN at the start of the year.
- Out of hundreds of companies, Stockopedia came up with their Top 20 tips for 2021, and BMN came 3rd (and will do better than the two above it I believe)
> Vanadium prices have risen massively in recent weeks, and are expected to reach $45gV at the bare minimum this year, and BMN's share price always seem to track the commodity price sooner or later! (there's a huge gap at present!)
- Vanadium prices are now rising so fast I believe we will see $45kgV in the next 4-5 weeks
Target price for 2021 : 100p+
Tons of Newsflow in the pipeline. Please go on my profile to see the full list of RNSs / Catalysts that we're expecting to help us reach that 100p+ share price target.
DYOR & GLA : )
LionelGreen,
Thanks for your post which feels like the perfect message after the strange weekend we've just had on this bb. Perfectly balanced and perfectly articulated.
I do believe that what's on this bb is important to some degree because there will be many prospective investors who look at bulletin boards early on when starting to research a company and can be put off rather easily. This is why I've always been keen for the bb to be as positive as possible and focused on what matters.
I apologise for getting distracted from that focus and "shooting from the hip" over the weekend. Sorry.
Now let's get back to focusing on what's important.
Onwards and upwards : ) And thanks again, Lionel.
@bassguy, I couldn’t read the article, so please may you copy & paste it here?
@gambit - excellent summary mate : )
New tweet here promoting an article about VRFBs in China which is well worth a read
https://mobile.twitter.com/Vanadium_Libero/status/1381365420666580997
DYOR & GLA : )
Fair play, Faramog. Understand where you're coming from.
Ben & Lindon, I'm here for the long term, but the short term price movement is important for us to achieve the share price we all believe is achievable long term. Otherwise we risk starting from too low a base when incredibly news does arrive.
Have sympathy with where you're coming from. I had people on the bb saying the same sorta thing to me back in Oct, Nov, and December, thinking I was too short term. But, even as a LTH hoping for a 10 bagger one day, you can't avoid the fact the short term has significance because you can't reach 100p+ without reaching 25p+ first in the much nearer term etc.
That's why, even at times when we were flirting with 10p in Q4 2020, I believed we could reach 20p+ very soon, and that we needed to a have re-rate in the immediate term, so that we were not starting from too low a base when the Eskom news lands in January...
... and obviously January came and went and the news didn't land. But, because I truly believed it would, I was very interested in the short term price movement, even though I had no plans to sell, and actually topped up at 21p, and have continued topping up since.
And, for similar reasons, I'm very interested in the short term price movement between now and the Eskom BESS tender news in July. I want us to reach as high a point as possible before the news arrives.
Also worth mentioning that I didn't sell anything when we rose up to ~50p because I strongly believed that massively undervalued the company still. So, after all the progress the company has made since then, there's not a hope in hell I will be selling a single share at 50p either. I'm expecting a multiple of that.
Take from that what you will. I'm no genius, I'm just saying you can be a LTH and really care about the short term too cos you see it as being linked.
Hang on, I didn't mean it like that. All I meant was that almost everyone speculates on the bulletin board to some degree, and that becomes more and more prevalent the less comms there are to actually confirm things one way or another. But that doesn't mean it's completely without merit.
Nor was I comparing myself to Alfa for one moment. Why do you think I've said he's the fountain of all knowledge when it comes to all things Bushveld and Vanadium? I know he knows wayyyy way more than me. I've never claimed to know everything. I know I don't.
As I said, all I was saying was that we all speculate to some degree and that includes Alfa. And there's completely nothing wrong with that in my opinion, because that's what bulletin boards are for to Some extent.
Apologies if I'm not being as articulate enough to express myself accurately but I'm feeling super misunderstood this weekend.
It's an educated thought based on my knowledge of the company, the recent RNSs, the recent interviews, etc. Educated thought processes is what we have to rely on in the absence of comms from the company. That's what we're all having to do here. Not just me. But everyone. Including Alfa by the way.
Honestly you baffle me. How can you say there's nothing wrong with the comms but it's wrong of us to try fill the gaps based on what we know?
If you're that against any sort of assumption, no matter how educated / well-reasoned, then surely you should be 100% behind the campaign for more information? Because the amount of guess work involved is because of the lack of comms. So it's one or the other.
We know BMN partially own and invested in Enerox as part of their plans to be a vertically integrated vanadium play, and they have said their intention would be to supply the vanadium needed for Enerox's VRFBs.
We know from recent interviews that Fortune says BMN is backing Enerox not just financially but with vanadium.
We know from the Q4 / Full Year Operational Update that "Sales of 4,264 mtV includes intercompany sales of 1,255 mtV". And I would consider Enerox to be "inter-company" for the reasons stated in my last post (which you seem to have largely ignored by the way).
Seriously, are you just trying to be disruptive? For pete's sake, it's a bulletin board, so there's always going to be an element of speculation, and that's especially true when so much has simply not been communicated. If you don't like it, join the campaign. Simple as.
Well Bushveld Energy are the majority owners of 'VRFB Holdings' (with a 50.50% stake) which in turn owns 50% of Enerox so any Enerox VRFB contracts any Enerox wins should be disclosed in RNSs here.
Especially when BMN are investing in the company and its meteoric growth, and are most certainly are supplying the vanadium for these Enerox Vanadium Flow Battery contracts.