Member Info for Libero

Apologies - just seen the posts from bassguy & Steve

Interesting have found Vanchem on the Duferco website

https://www.duferco.com/investment/

Also, to expand on the below, Duferco would have had to bought millions of shares around 22-27p range in order to sell them now at what would be a considerable loss.

Why would they do that this early on when
(1) There are MANY trading sessions (60+) away from the bit that matters to them 10 sessions in advance of 23 Oct?
(2) They have no control over what will happen in terms of vanadium prices between now and then
(3) They have no control over what Bushveld newsflow will occur between now and then, and this is a share that can go up 100% in a few days.

IF - and it is a big if - Duferco are willing to make losses by buying shares at a high to then sell at a low, there's no chance they'd start this early.

In all honesty, I doubt the board of directors at Duferco would risk enacting such a risky plan. Especially when there's a worldwide economic downturn going on.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4356088-vanadium-miners-news-for-month-of-june-2020

Uksteveg & SF - thanks for your posts explaining your thoughts, I see where you're coming from, but I remain really unconvinced that this is what is happening here.

To be clear, I understand that:

1) Duferco have convertible loan notes of $11.5m (= GBP 8,85m) this year that they can convert into shares as of 23 Oct 2020.
2) The lower the share price the more shares they can convert their CLN into.

However:
1) Duferco would need to have already bought millions of shares in advance in order to strategically sell them off at a time that suits them best. There is no proof of that there was any major buying during or after the negotiations were completed from looking at the share price.
Also, in order to enact this plan, they would need to have owned so many millions of shares that they would have features in the Top 10 Shareholders. Yet, as far as I'm aware, they never have done. [Please correct me if I'm wrong]
https://www.bushveldminerals.com/capital-structure-shareholder-information/

2) It does not make much sense for them to start selling this relentlessly this far in advance.

3) Bearing in mind that there are restrictions in place in terms of when and how they sell the shares from the CLN, I would expect there to be restrictions in place to prevent them from buying and then selling millions of shares in advance to manipulate the share price in their favour.

On this basis, I struggle to believe Duferco are behind all this.

Excellent research once again, Sloppy!!

"The power generation of renewable energy sources such as wind and solar energy is unstable and uncontrollable, and its integration into the power grid will have an impact on the safe and stable operation of the power grid.

Large-scale energy storage technology is a key technology to solve the discontinuous and unstable problem of renewable energy power generation.

At present, a variety of energy storage technologies have been researched and developed in the industry, and the all-vanadium redox flow battery energy storage technology has become one of the preferred technologies for large-scale energy storage due to its significant advantages.

In the field of large-capacity energy storage that provides important support for the development of renewable energy power generation, smart grids, and "Internet +" smart energy development, all vanadium redox flow batteries have broad development space and are a proper future star."

Future star ? A new 5kW/20kWh all-vanadium redox flow battery energy storage system has officially been put to use this month.

The future is now!

Thanks Paul150

Can see Bushveld delivered 57,000 kg on 25th July

... and that was only 6 days after another delivery on 19th July.
(Can see 22,000 kg delivered but need a subscription to see the full amount!)

Looks very promising!

https://importkey.com/search/Bushveld

*look closely

OK well just bear in mind my relative said that, whilst litigation funders (like him) obviously try to only back winners, they do sometimes get surprised by court decisions, and then it's some serious money down the drain when that occurs. He also explained that "revenues/profits" can be very lumpy because legal cases last an unpredictable amount of time. Sometimes they can take way longer than first anticipated. The more legal cases they have on the go the better it is, with the law of large numbers coming into force in terms of win rate, and also in terms of smoothening out the lumps. So who knows maybe this doesn't apply as much to BUR but yeah it's certainly something to consider when investing in that sector. And, specifically to BUR, I would closely at the Muddy Waters report.

Best of luck : )

Damn you were right, Pondering!

Uksteveg - what makes you think that? Do you think this is a little like the March 2017 to March 2018 when the share price was deliberately held back within a tight range (7-8.5p) before being let loose?

Well done to those buying (back) in now.

BigBaggerHungry - I've seen you're invested in Burford Capital (BUR) and, as a word of warning, as someone who looked into investing in BUR myself once upon a time, I would sell out as soon as possible, because their financial reporting is very suspect (as per the Muddy Waters report).

Also, as someone who knows a little about litigation funding through a relative working in the industry, it's got to one of the riskiest sectors to invest in since one or two good years could then be followed by a disastrous year if cases are delayed or if the side in a lawsuit backed by the litigation funders loses the case. Which happens more often than you perhaps think (about 30% of the time).

Not saying you must invest it here (although I think you should), I'm just giving the heads up that BUR is not quite what it first seems.

however a few big sells (most probably from 1 seller only) means we're not rising to 15p just yet.

Having said that buys outweigh sells today so far so let's see how we finish. I still believe 14-15p within the next few trading sessions is possible.

The Q2 Operational Update is due this week. This should show growing production from Vametco & Vanchem. Lower production costs. And higher vanadium prices (esp in China where demand is currently highest).

In a broader sense, we're also expecting:

-Vametco mini grid news.
-Electrolyte production to come.
-BE contracts.
-Mokopane offtake news/DFS completion
-JSE listing.
-Invinity news - who have already received orders for 40 vanadium flow batteries since the start of 2020
-Enerox news and other strategic investments in VRFB companies?
-Lemur disposal?
-Institutional Investor - sudden purchasing from an II or two, after months of courtship?

-Govt stimulus packages aimed at green energy - $35bn for solar farms recently announced in the USA, etc
-Companies investing in green energy more than ever.
-Colruyt Group investing and selling vanadium batteries across Europe. Who else will also start investing in vanadium?
-A growing awareness of the limitations and risks involved with lithium batteries.
-A growing awareness of the need to store energy for when the sun isn't shining etc
-Projects being announced that will require lots of energy storage batteries - e.g. Cleve Hill Solar Project in Kent given UK Govt approval recently .
- ETC ETC

Shut up, you silly troll

Even if you’re right it would at least mean that there is no dilution of the shareholders of those who are already invested.

Wouldn’t it?

Thanks Halespur.

What about the idea of a Share Buyback but instead of the shares being cancelled out of existence they’re held by the BOD to then sell onto an Institutional Investor?

This way if an II says they’ll get involved but only for a 10% discount to the SP at the time, the BOD could avoid a placing to this effect, and instead sell those bought-back shares at the price asked for. Possibly at a slight loss but not necessarily.

Could that be a good idea?

Excellent news - have you got a source?

Wonder how much we're selling to China right now...

No worries. It's possibly very naive. It was literally just a thought and admittedly not entirely thought out.

Sure Fortune has already considered everything already. The man's a genius.

Ignore those numbers btw

Obviously if you have a major player with £100m to invest in a vanadium miner they may as well buy out most of the Bushveld shares for themselves to have a much larger % of the entire company and everything it owns. No masterclass presentation / negotiation would convince them otherwise.

The scenario was just illustrative of the idea I was getting at.

OK there's been a misunderstanding.

I was talking about selling (not merely disposing / giving away) assets to help realise the value of these non-vanadium assets.

Then, to provide some (credible) external benchmarking of value of Mokopane, I was suggesting we sell a chunk of Mokopane.

Because if, for the sake of argument, Bushveld sold 20% of Mokopane for £100m to Glencore, that would help the stockmarket realise we own the remaining 80% which must then be worth £400m.

Institutional Investors would then compare that £400m valuation for the 80% stake Bushveld still own with the market valuation, and realise that we're massively undervalued because the MC currently stands (well) beneath £400m.

This would then result in the gap closing very dramatically. In this scenario the share price would at least treble from where we are now.

Does that make sense?

Please may you explain why you think I'm an idiot? What ideas specifically do you not like and why?