Member Info for Libero

Hahaa well I actually have found someone since then who is fantastic.

It wasn't an easy path and it took time, patience, and effort.

There were ups and downs and false dawns and all sorts but I can certainly say I'm a crazy multiple more happy than I was previously.

And, on that basis, the share price is going to be a crazy multiple of 11-12p haha!

No come on Fizzydrink. I’m curious to know what you’ll say

In this bizarre analogy I guess the "ex" would be our 20s-40s share price, who teased with the prospect of something exciting like an even higher share price ("the engagement"), only to let us down somehow and instead we've ended up with a single-digit share price none of us saw coming, which we've struggled to recover from

Time to call it a day me thinks...

Wow that's massively exciting!!

and yes 100% agree with you, Introv, you've expressed that really well - that we're trying to analyse / make sense out of a situation which simply doesn't make sense.

Reminds me of when I once had an ex- longterm gf who told me she wanted to settle down and get engaged etc ... only to then go off with a co-worker about 8 weeks' later. I spent ages thinking through what could've changed so dramatically in such a short space of time ... before eventually realising there was no amount of logic could explain what had happened because no logic/reason was involved in my ex's decision to suddenly cut things off and move on the way she did. It was an emotional decision.

My point is that it's a very natural human thing to want to make logical sense of everything, and sometimes things happen where no amount of analysis will explain them because whatever it was was driven by forces that are beyond reason.

Perhaps a strange analogy but that's what it made me think of haha

Nice research, SloppyG.

This confirms what I suspected - that they're starting with selling to households but will expand to other things soon. Which makes sense when their backers own windfarms in Europe already!

Also wonder if selling to homes is perhaps one of the smartest ways to convince the world to invest in vanadium. Because, for the sake of argument, what if Angela Markel bought a Voltstorage vanadium battery for one of her homes, realised how excellent it was, researched vanadium more thoroughly, and then convinced the EU to invest billions in VRFBs...

Wishful thinking perhaps but it could happen when Voltstorage are selling in Germany ALREADY.

Thank you, Jolly, much appreciated!

As a thank you - please check out my recent posts on DLG. Know you said you weren't convinced previously but the HY results are out on Tuesday and I genuinely believe there's a quick buck to be made there.

Feel you deserve it matey : )

Especially if the yield is well above 5% like I expect it to be.

- DLG is likely to then be promoted from the FTSE250 to the FTSE 100 at the next opportunity (in September) which itself should give some sort of boost.

Summary: Whilst DLG is not a buy-and-forget share, I struggle to think of another FTSE250 company that is as safe and has as much upside as this company over the next 6-9 months.

DYOR and Buy this week!

- Direct Line still trades about 50p less than it’s pre-covid levels for 2 reasons:

(a) The regulators, the Prudential Regulatory Authority (PRA), forced insurers to suspend dividends. Since DLG had chosen to go for a £150m Share Buyback rather than a £150m special dividend this year, they had to suspend their “main” dividend to appease the regulators, whereas their peers (like ADM) merely suspended their special dividend. The key point here is that this was not done out of necessity like the vast majority of companies who have suspended their dividends. For this reason it should be seen merely as a suspension rather than a cut.

(b) Direct Line has been pessimistic in their messaging, suggesting profits could fall this year vs last year, but the long term goals are still achievable. This is nonsense when you consider how high the motor insurance profits will be on the £1,500,000,000+ of their annual Net Earned Motor Premiums. Home insurance profits will have risen too. No Business Interruption exposure. And, as I will explain below, Travel insurance losses far lower than they’ve estimated so far (reckon it’ll be about £10m).

A great illustration of the overly negative/cautious messaging is the travel insurance loss predictions DLG made at the start of May based on the presumption there would be no travel until 1st October due to covid-19. As we know, the government decided to let people to travel to most of the main destinations (except the US) about 12 weeks earlier than DLG expected. Consequently travel losses before reinsurance recoveries should be far less than the £44m they predicted, and – due to some very clever reinsurance purchasing – the end result will probably be a £10m loss to DLG.

- Due to both of these factors, DLG is much better value than its peers (something identified by analysts in recent weeks) and has the greatest potential of surprising the market with better-than-previously-communicated results.

- DLG has an unusually and overly generous policy of returning profits to shareholders. If you look at 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, they returned 100% of EPS earnings in dividends during that 4 year time frame. Therefore a super profitable year (even if it is a one-off) will equal a bumper return to shareholders in a way you will not find elsewhere.

- It is on this basis that you can expect the “main” dividend to return and be accompanies by a special dividend which should total 30p+ - a yield of 10% of current prices, and 7.5% of my target price of 400p)

- Seeing as there’s been so many dividends that have been cut already or considered ‘at risk’ it feels almost inevitable that there shall be a surge of income-seeking funds/trusts/investors rushing to buy DLG shares if only for the one-off bumper dividends, to make up for the dividends they’ve missed out elsewhere. This is highly likely to result in the share price rising well above its pre-covid level of 340-350p to something like 400p. Especially if the yi

- Insurance is a defensive sector, just the sort of thing to invest in during times like this.
- Motor insurance is a much better bet than all those insurance companies who are very exposed to Business Interruption losses caused by covid-19. Would certainly stay clear of Hiscox etc.
- Motor insurance is compulsory so the number of policies taken out and the premiums do not change very much regardless of what’s going on with the economy. It’s one of the reasons why motor insurance is even more defensive than non-motor insurers.

- The entire motor insurance industry have reported that, whilst average premiums have fallen a little (between 0-7%) for those renewing during lockdown, the number of claims have plummeted. The bigger the gap between the premiums paid in and claims paid out the higher the profits will be of course.

- Reports show the number of car claims fell about 70% during the first 70 days of lockdown (19% of the year).

- The number of car claims simply must still be well below normal levels for a variety of reasons:
(a) Far less driving at night because the night time economy has collapsed. Reducing what must be a huge proportion of the most severe claims that occur in the dark and involving drivers under the influence
(b) Far less driving during rush hour, as people work from home, rather than having to hurry to the office or the station etc.
(c) Far less driving in general, as people are still staying at home far more than usual.

- This will benefit ALL motor/motor-focused insurers hugely.

shaml89 - you're in the wrong share then. Bushveld is a get-incredibly-rich-slowly-and-with-saintly-levels-of-patience sort of share.

If you're looking for a quick trade check out DLG whose interim results are out next Tuesday and that's when they should be reinstating their dividend (most probably on the same day that BP cut theirs!)

mogwhy, that's far too low! None of the assets or profits or anything seems to be being valued properly at all. Hence the sheer scale of the buying opportunity here.

* have helped cause

Yes it sounds as though that's the case and it's a real shame because, inadvertently, it does appear to have caused the share price to fall from 14p for no good reason whatsoever. However what's encouraging is investors like knuttie and others returning to the fold now. If enough PIs do this the share price will continue to rise.

FYI - I've never sold my Bushveld shares even though it has been my largest holding since early 2014. Instead I shuffle money around from other parts of my savings/investments when I wish to invest elsewhere (AON in 2016 and DLG in recent weeks), rather than sell any of my bushie shares (which I hold sacred).

Also because I believe it's wayyy way too risky when this is the exact sort of company that can release a RNS that causes the share price to rocket all of sudden.

Each to their own though I guess. Everyone can do what they want with their own money.

The reason I bring this up is because BP may announce that they're going to cut their dividend on the same day DLG are likely to announce resumption of their dividend.

If this happens you could see millions of pounds flow out of BP and into DLG.

Will continue to build a holding here whilst I can. Average now stands at ~287.X : )

Well done Knuttie! I would've disagreed with selling at 14p ish but it's worked out well for you seeing as you've managed to increase your stake by 50,000 shares for the same monetary amount. Also bravo for selling BUR. Not sure if you saw my posts earlier today but I do believe that's for the best.

And yes I saw that big £46,500 purchase! Glad to see that went through @ 12.2p. Should set us up nicely for tomorrow!

15:50:25 12.20 381,150 Buy* 11.50 12.00 46.50k

Oh and there we go, we've finished the day at 12p this time : )

14:48:27 11.95p 350,000 Buy* 11.50 12.00 £41,830

Yes, I'm feeling the same way. Didn't expect IES to treble in price within 3 months or so. Bushveld own ~9% of IES but it isn't quite the same is it...

Shorting would be far far more risky of course. Really doubt Duferco would risk doing that. Otherwise they may need their CLN shares to pay off their losses in the event the share price shoots off.

Yes, good point, Duferco could be rinsing and repeating. It's not guaranteed to work but if you sell a chunk to make the share price fall enough to panic some PIs into selling their shareholders the sp would fall beneath their selling price. At that point they can then buy back the shares with a view to do something similar later on.

That is providing that no news comes out whilst they're in between selling and buying. Very risky game in that sense. Especially with news to come this week!