Member Info for liam1om

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Future (FUTR, SELL, Mcap: £1.7bn) – Initiation

Target Price 1,153p, Current Price 1,400p

Future has been a stock market darling for a decade; however, all good things must come to an end.
We believe the business is likely to move into a more challenging period with slowing growth due to lower structural growth tailwinds, weakening traffic to key websites, slowing economic growth, a move to new categories and less M&A, while the development of AI generated content could remove the moat around the business, putting pressure on pricing and ultimately the valuation.
We see downside risk to consensus and our FY23-25E PBT estimates sit 7-13% below consensus.
We initiate with a SELL recommendation and 1153p price target.

What do you mean you cant find anything? It's literally in the thread title "New contract".

Hardly knee jerk. That was a bad trading update, whichever way you look at it, in fact, I don't understand how they are still above 300. They are ridiculously over valued. The only reason I can see that it hasn't collapsed is that this was well flagged previously and isn't a surprise to the market.

Falling on a downgrade today by Jefferies.

You are still asleep, thats whats going on :-)

"A very good day"? It closed down? Didn't like that reaction to the numbers in the US, but lets see how it plays out. Chart still looks good.

It's a placing from an institutional seller: JPMorgan placed 1.8m shares for an undisclosed institutional seller at between 1,061p and 1,100p.

It's up on a vague bid rumour from MGM.

Something happened right at the end there. Lots of volume all of a sudden and a surge. Smells like a bit of bid interest.

Am I missing something. This award is worth £204 million including interest, plus current assets plus funding is no longer required. Why arent we trading at 4x the current share price?

The risk is that RKH don't get the full award, but even at 80% of it, this is immediately worth 40p+. Might take a day or two to settle at a more realistic level.

Sells are normal, its the lack of buying which is causing this to stagnate. Hardly any buys since around 9am this morning.

Can't look at it as a buy or sell. It's a trade. Someone sold it and someone bought it. It's a positive sign that that volume was taken at 102.

Currency headwinds causing the drop today:

As for the expected conversion of constant currency ARR to U.S. Dollar revenue, Darktrace notes that at this late stage in its financial year, increases in net ARR added make a limited contribution to revenue in the current year. Additionally, geopolitically driven foreign exchange headwinds have increased and the potential for additional volatility remains heightened. In this context, Darktrace is slightly raising the top end of the FY 2022 revenue growth guidance to reflect Q3 FY 2022 results and is narrowing the expected range. Darktrace now expects FY 2022 year-over-year revenue growth of between 45.5% and 47.0% (previously 44.5% to 46.5%).

Taking 4D out at double or even triple the current SP is pocket change to Merck. Question is, why aren't they, or other large institutions not buying at these prices?

If they are lying about this what else are they lying about. Just a few weeks ago they said everything was on track. Well at least two updates are late and now we know they haven't even completed enrolment??

Thanks. Not looking to deramp, looking for sensible suggestions. HE1 I wasn't involved in but watched, POLX was another with a 85% of getting approval and didnt materialise. There have been a couple of others in the past year.

I just like to keep my feet on the ground and it looks like the market isn't pricing in the certainty of this well, which obviously provides a large upside should it come in, hopefully double where we are now. If the results aren't as expected, I'm expecting under 1p. I always enter a position thinking of the worse case scenario.

Having been involved in a few high COS stocks over the past couple of years and seeing a couple of them not come through, what is the scenario should the well not be commercial?

Not if Duncan is doing the presentations. I know he can't help it, but he looks like my Tesco delivery driver.

They need someone with more showmanship, more enthusiasm to help sell the company. I just watched the Proactive interview and if I wasn't already holding, I wouldn't be buying off that.

Ignore it, article dated July 2021.