Member Info for LeValueInvestor

morning guys - just a quick message to highlight how undervalued SAV and our Portugal asset are: - first of all, I'm very impressed with how quickly David has progressed Mina de Barroso since we took control of the asset (may 2017). this is very refreshing and confidence boosting (especially after the disappointments in Oman). in 9 months (including harsh winter and wild fires) we have a minable size 9mt jorc with realistic estimate to double that in a few more weeks/months. This is very very fast. - Don't forget David put in �300k of his personal money in July 2017 in a placing at 5.25 (+6p warrants). This was because he was extremely bullish on his recent Portugal acquisition. Ive done the maths, David spent more money personally since he took over SAV (Q3 2013) than he paid himself (net of tax) He invested close to �1mn of hard cash in the shares over the past 4 years. So right now, David has not made a single penny from this SAV venture. and he keeps investing in it. The guy is a shrewd financier (go read his profile in The Australian newspaper). - Now with Portugal, go check European Lithium feb2018 presentation. they have an underground spodumene project in Austria. Their JORC is 10mt at 1% with 0% cutoff. this is a joke. 0% cutoff when yo have an underground only mine is completely unrealistic JORC. They did a scoping study a few years ago which is impossible to fin don the website ! no wonder. They are due to publish a PFS in a few weeks, will be interesting to study. Their market cap is �60mn right now with tons of options in the money due to expire. so fully diluted, their mkt cap is over �85mn. Their timeline is the same as ours (dfs, production etc..). except they took years to get to where they are now. It took us only a few months. Now why are they worth so much ? its because they are listed in Australia where all the private investors have made a fortune on the Altura/Pilbara/Kidman of this world and are trying to find the next one. - Trisse valuation of Portugal is very good but too conservative in my opinion. I think its much closer to 20-25p NPV just for the first phase of the 3 deposits. Don't forget Mina e Barroso is much bigger than just those 3 deposits and Mina de Brroso itself is 5km2 out of 1,000 km2 lease we took in Portugal. Let me repeat. Mina de Barroso is only 0.5% of the entire tenement we have in Portugl. it is obvisouly the focus as we already have a mining licence there. The size is gonna bigger than Trisse assumption, prices higher (especially early in the project which is great for debt payback an IRR) and capex lower. - SAV suffers from bad PR and a frustrated crowd that is still waiting for progress in Oman. - Forget Oman for now, Portugal is the key, especially as this is the only commodity (lithium, cobalt..) that makes end consumers desperate to get involved in financing/securing it. We will see an Asian commodity specialist or a European car manufacturer get involved

do we know at what price they will IPO? 2.4p again?

thks. I think SHG might benefit from a more Africa-friendly approach to their business. I understand over 95% of the SHG workforce is Tanzanian. They are producing and processing in-country. It might be irrelevant but the CFO put in £75k and the South African based Sustainable Capital investment firm increased their stakes in the last few weeks. So it might be that the experts know that SHG is likely to maintain a decent relationship with the Tanzanian govt. im already long from 4.8p so there might be some wishful thinking in my thought process.

guys - can you confirm whether SHG is affected by the export ban? my understanding is that they produce Gold dore so this is already considered already processed in-country and is free to be exported (subject to duty/fees etc.). Can you pls confirm or deny that? thanks

seems to be the quietest BB share in the UK. i'm fairly new to this company but so far, I like the idea of servicing the micro company sector (massive mkt) in a supportive environment thks to HMRC reform (filing corporate returns digitally, quarterly). Their revenue growth rate seems to be 30%+, but likely much higher going forward as they focus on accounting practice channel (as opposed to direct sales). This accounting practice channel has grown 100% yoy so it might be replicated this year again, so it might take total revenue growth 50%+ this year. This takes you to GBP 13mn+ annual revenues roughly. So at current knocked-down price of 100p/share (or 40mn mcap), its trading at 3x expected current year revenue. that's very low for a biz that captures gross profit margin above 80%. They have about GBP 4mn of cash in the bank, no debt. and their cash burn suggest they can easily cover another 18-21mth of biz activity, by which time they will generate maiden net profit. This is all I really know at this stage but it seems to me, this can be worth twice the current valuation as soon as we have updates on current revenue growth (quarterly updates soon?) Beyond 2017, as/if they seem realistically closer to profitability, this can easily be worth multiple of current mcap, but way too early to tell. btw, the CEO statement in the recently published annual report was very useful I thought. whoever is watching this BB, pls add any comment if relevant...thks LVI

Hi guys.. I'm new to BKY, starting due diligence before potentially investing. Quick question: what % ownership does mngt have in the company, especially CEO? Thks LVI

@ 1.47p

Jimbobtechstock... if you have more to divest... looks like you have to hit a 1.25 bid. Ill take all you have if you want.

thks for this. can you clarify what you meant regarding Gordon Toll and Signature? any news I can read about it? Also, a couple of questions on todays' RNS if anyone knows or has a dialogue with Brett: - minimum of 0.013 Bass share price. what does it mean exactly? if trades at 0.017 tomorrow, we get paid more? - cancel the loan facility: at no cost?

to give you some context, I invested at 1.45 average with no care int he world for graphite. It was a cash play with gold interest. This deal today is effectively a placing at 1.25-1.50p area. We have raised cash at a discount to what the net cash could have been (2.5p area) a year from now. However, I think this is the better deal. I never liked having 70mn shares exposure to Bass. Id rather settle it all at 0.013 price. Need to check what minimum is. do we get upside if it trades higher next few days? would be great coz the bass guys might like the deal from their side. If they had done a placing via brokers, would have been around 1.25p with a risk of 1p coz the bulk of the investor crowd would have been flippers. So it is a better deal. Now looking ahead, I think Brett is the right kind of guy to be taking care of the new Stratmin. He s a sharp financier with a focus on gold already. My suspicion/hope is that the RTO will have something to do with Signature Gold. a non-listed company co-managed by Brett. Their leases are very attractive and in a relatively new Gold province with big mining names already producing next to signature's licences. The mngt team at Signature is top notch so I hope the RTO is to do with that company. We shall see. At current 1.50/1.75 prices, I think this pffer great reward with no dilution for a long time.

interesting points. on the risk of placing/dilution and the share price discounting that, I would think (hope) that the directors would not raise money below where net cash is within months, which is at least 3p. Plus, as recently as last October, they invested their personal money (over gbp 100k each) in the small palcing at 2.5p and they massively reduced their salary/fees to be partly paid at 2.5p or higher. So this is clearly not in their personal interest to be raising money below 2.5p. and 2 months ago, they clearly knew they would pivot and look at gol opportunities.

thks guys. lets see how it goes next few months. funny how mkt-makers keep it 1.25/1.50 but cannot offer any live price for 100k shares.

I bought 2mln shares this morning (500k+ 750k+750k). I think fair value around 3p for now.

just bought more OXP here. 270k @ 1.824p looks like a big seller is still not finished so I might wait before buying more in case it keeps falling. Whichever way I look at the financials (740k R&D tax credits already included in receivables?), net cash is above 1.8p by year-end 2016. So I feel downside is limited to temporary price action from now on.

Hi Rforrester. thanks for the feedback. to be clear, I don't pump and dump stocks. If you have a look at previous posts or tweets. you will see I only post when I buy or sell or highlight external news. and I happily recognize it when I lose hope in a stock. Ill seat on this one for a while and see where it take sus. you might be right in that I would consider a pop in the price to take a profit if I can or if the news are not satisfactory.

just bought more OXP shares today between 1.85and 1.89p (started buying at 2.2p a few weeks ago so average about 2p now). the financials are easy to understand. I see net cash around 1.81p or 1.88p per shares by year-end (not sure whether the R&D tax credits are already included on the asset side in the receivables). im not a pharma expert but it looks like there is medium term upside in what they are offering and there might still be some partnership news regarding the taste-masking applications. Woodford portfolio mnger Mitchell Fraser-Jones still seemed bullish OXP as of 19th October: "we remain very confident in the company’s technology, its strategy and its ability to deliver attractive long-term returns." so at current prices, I feel there is very little downside and decent medium term upside.

hi everyone - I just bought 55k shares at 16.025p today. here is the rationale. all feedback is welcome. I might add or sell on the back of it. so basically... looks like the company financials look like that: I ignore inventories, receivables and intangible assets. so they have $92.5mln cash which I assume will be more like $90mln by year end. on the liability side, there are quite a few things to take into accounts. decommisionning costs of approx $32.5mln over the longterm. while it is not immediate, it is real. Also over the next 12 months there will be a decision to be made about block C-10 in Mauritania. If they go ahead with a drill, the cost to SEY is $7.5mln. if they give up, it is still about $1.1mln of abandonment. By then, we would have burn an extra 6-9months of admin cash, which seems to be about $2mln per semester (hopefully lower with reduced BoD). so all in all, the net cash eqty to SEY by mid-2017 is about $45mln if we drill C-10 or $51mln if we do not. in £ (using 1.25 fx rate), that's net cash equity of £36.5mln to £42mln. or 16.5p to 19p. SEY is focused on 4 things: 1/ production and closure of loss-making chinguetti field 2/ c-10 block joint decision with Tullow to drill a hole or not next year, 3/ Somaliland, watching Genel do the seismic work. 4/ invetsing in new ventures. so all in all, at 16p you are trading at or below next cash by mid 2017. you have a potential drill which could go zero or fuego. you could find good data in Somaliland. you could see the company buying back the shares if they stay sub16p (it is value acreetive to do so). you could see the company buying distressed company that also trade below cash (not that many though) or have low breakeven producing assets. the one big negative indeed is the amount of money wasted on high salaries last few years. but it seems the Russian guy at Waterford has lost patience and kicked most of those guys out. pls give me feedback...good or bad... so I learn more about the company.

Thks for the added info. Agree there is upside on the vatomaina project too.

hi all, ive only been following Stratmin for a few days on the back of some twitter recommendation and the upside from the Bass deal vs current mcap. A lot of guys talk about the deal being worth 5.5-6p net to STGR but after going thru the details, I can only see the deal being worth about 3p. he is why: The face value of the deal is 15.5mln AUD which at current bass and fx levels is worth 5.4p/share. However: Out of 15.5mln AUD, 5mln is the 2.5% royalty cap. It looks like Bass will produce about 6,000 to 12,000 tonne per year. this will generate sales of $4mln to $8mln per year. 2.5% royalty on that is worth only 100k-200k USD to STGR per year. At current graphite prices, it will take decades to actually accumulate 5mln AUD worth of royalty. So I find the 5mln royalty bit of the 15.5mln offer very misleading. So we are left with 10.5mln AUD worth of cash and Bass shares: out of the first 1.5mln AUD cash payment, the CEO has mentioned that there will be 300k £ left for STGR once we settle our liabilities. After that, we are left with 75mln shares of BASS which at current prices is worth £620k. I think there might be some upside there. so hopefully those 75mln share will be worth more than that. After that we get 3mln + 5mln AUD worth of shares, will be calculated with the WAP of the prices at futures dates. This will happen after a few quarters of production. not imminent. so all in all, STGR ends up with: £300k of net cash (AUD 1.5mln cash - liabilities settlement). £620k worth of BAss shares (75mln shares). £4,563,000 worth of Bass shares once they achieve production targets. = £5.5mln. but that's not all, the CEO mentioned in the past they plan to convert 300k£ worth of directors loans etc into shares. So assuming they convert their loans at 2.5p (could be higher/better), that's an extra 12mln shares to add to the sharecount. 163mln becomes 175mln. (tbh better they convert their loan into shares @2.5p rather than cash). £5.5mln divided by 175mln = 3.15p/share. im not even counting the fact that the firm would have spent over £500k of admin costs by the time the production target payments hit the bank (3+5mln). So all in all, I think this deal is really worth about 3p/share. Considering the poor liquidity of this share, I think its only worth buying STGR at or below 1.5p. (I annoyingly missed those opportunities earlier this am and yday !!).

hi guys - what do you see as the NAV of PIRI at the moment?... I get something like £390k or 0.0168p/share. Any thoughts welcome.