Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
This is your first post? You have an agenda in mind??
Is this the first day with no block sales in a months? Was the Friday 10million block the last selling piece ? I've been buying a few decent clips at .42 today so I suspect the liquidity came from the 10mn block last Friday. And now 43 offer... is this the floor??
Looks like the seller has finally cleared... should normalize back to .60 area.
"We calculate an unrisked value for Savannah of US$381.2m, equivalent to 42.0p per share."
some people will be tempted to take profit on this move here and good for them but the new bigger investors will keep lifting the shares especially now that the RNS has confirmed or outperformed people's expectation.. the afternoon session will be very interesting...
• Expansion of the resource base (Table 2) is likely to provide significant opportunity to expand mine life and potentially increase annual mining and processing rates. The current combined Mineral Resource Estimate and Exploration Target of 22-26Mt at 1.0% to 1.2%Li₂O suggests that there is significant potential to further expand the resource base and improve the overall financial case for the Project
so 356mn USD is gbp 265mn, or 200mn gbp net to sav...thats 28p net SAV share price worth. and thats for phase 1...
note the spoduemene price used is 685/tonne for the base case. thats what altura used (690) in their last DFS a few weeks ago. Current offtke agreemements and sales are around 900/tonne. So this long term price of 685 is already taking into account the risk of lower prices in the future. But if we can secure a offtke agreemenent in the next few months, we shall likely sell spoduemene closer to 900 for the first few years.
base case pre-tax NPV8 of US$356m and IRR of 63% based on a Mining inventory of 14.42Mt at 1.07% Li₂O . this, my friends, is an amazing project. much better than my expectations (which were 300mn USD npv using 17mt rresources). this is phase 1 guys, i continue to believe that by the time they finish the DFS, we have 2x the resource and 2x the npv ! well done SAV, this is amazing.
after such a rise last few days, i suspect quite a lot of investors and traders in UK/europe are taking or have taken profit here. Only the proper LTH who care about fundamentals will want to see this company through.. and that is through 20-30-40-50p over the next few months/quarters. However, we have a new wave of buying interest here, which seems to come from a mix of Daily Mail PI but more so from big hands internationally... the intraday pattern last few days suggest US accounts are building up positions here. thats all very good and healthy. Scoping study any day...........
totally agree IB... Mina Do Barroso is 5km2.... our total licence package is over 1,000 km2....! but I think just Mina Do Barroso (mining licence included) can turn out to be a 40mt project (from current 14mt jorc resource)... God knows (or David and Dale know) how big the entire project will be further down the line... another Pilbara minerals?
pedro - if you have been so patient with your investment and gone through sub 2p, you might as well keep your investments a few more weeks to finally make decent return. in terms of valuation.. I strongly believe the lithium project at this stage is worth about USD 300mn (hopefully scoping study is close to that) and it is clear the upside is double that once we progress towards DFS. so if the scoping study tells you NPV is GBP170mn net to SAV, the mkt or the strategic partner will defo pay close to that valuation to get a piece of the supply, knowing full well, the porject is reallyt worth double that at least. so 170mn GBP is 23p share price equivcalent. and thats for phase 1 of one of 3 key projects for SAV. Pedro....a few more weeks when you ve been waiting 4 years....
Stratmin Global Resources which was quoted AIM until August 2017, is expected to join NEX Exchange on 14 June. It originally said 6th of June.
the renewed pop over 10p coincides with early new york buyers coming in. I think we are on the radar of a few instit funds in the US which might help push prices higher this afternoon.
while its very exciting to focus on share price alone and % rise in a day or week.... the truth is this stock is still very very cheap based on the fundamentals. Right now at 10p, the mcap cap is GBP 70mn. The scoping study due any day this month is likely to show an NPV of roughly USD 300mn. and thats for roughly 15mt at 1% Li2o. What is likely to happen is we gonna have way more than that by the time we publish the DFS by year end. So i expect NPV to improve towards USD 500mn at the end of 2018. with SAV holding 75%, thats is GBP 300mn of NPV for SAV as per the DFS by end of the year. This is all speculative at this stage but the JORC so far have been better than expected and there is plenty of comparable projects in Australia 1-2 years ahead of us to work out some realistic numbers. in share price terms, thats a project that will be worth roughly 35p for SAV. and dont forget we have a World class HMS project JV with Rio Tinto in Mozanbique and a small but high margin copper project with quick payback in Oman. so 10p today is still massively cheap.
Look at Kodal minerals and you realise SAV is the right type of company to invest in. KOD has started work on their lithium prospects in Mali more than a year ago and have close to nothing to show for it. No JORC, No study. However, they signed an offtake agreement early on, which i was jealous about relative to SAV. But this clealry didnt help speed up the explo/development process and today, they are raising money from those same guys at a valuation of 10mn GBP (0.13p price) despite trading at 0.40p a few months ago. That is why there is a premium to be paid for a Management team like David Archer and Dale Ferguson. For those new here...dont forget DA invested over 1million dollars of his personal money in the company and didnt receive a salary the first year. So far, he has invested more cash in the company than he has been paid net of tax over the past 5 years. So the only way Savannah is worth it for DA is if he makes a killing on the share price...like us ! We are 1 or 2 weeks away from the scoping study in Portugal... this is very very important and will open the door to very substantial interest from Asset managers and more importantly tier 1 industrial partners.
Genuine article in their financial pages. Check their website, it's free.
agree the board needs to come out andshare their views about the seasonality risks of the business and the outlook for 2018. Note that only about 5k worth of cash has been sold today and we dropped by over 5%. maybe we see low 6s... at this price i will add. the odds are too attractive even with poor q1. If q2 looks decent, the share price will normalise to 10-12p quickly. thats 50-75% return in a short time.and long term fair value is 20-25p if numbers improve as per original mngt expectations.
while we were talking literature... price just squeezed into the close 8.2/8.5 .. not bad.