Member Info for lemmink

Holding 200,000 shares + £6.7k cash --- Limit orders (exp 10 feb) set to buy 20,000 @ 10.75p and to sell 20,000 @ 12.25p --- * Was'nt the market just deplorably rational today ... 21st Feb seems like ages to wait.

J Pither, former Chairman acquires 200,000 shares taking his position over 17% ... company confirms shares in issue as 17.8 million ... can't find mention of the 0.6 million treasury shares having been cancelled, so I think they still exist, ie true number of shares is c 18.4 million (IMO) ***** *** Additional Comment *** Been worrying a bit about the possibility of a rights issue. A cash call of 20p a share (4 for 1 @ 5p say?) would increase the interest cover to safe levels IMO... I would struggle to meet such a call, hopefully they can, and intend, to pay the debt down the hard way, via use of earnings?

Limit order expiring 10th feb set to sell 20,000 shares at 12.25p ... nice to see the iii message board showing signs of life! ... not got an opinion myself on bid speculation.

To my mind the new board represents the strategic investors and their behaviour has been exemplorary from the start (IMO). Even Baron's bleedin bonus scheme does'nt seem too bad now! ... Regarding the current SP, an up to date Balance Sheet should show some impacts of the Eni deal and Pok's water discovery ... at guess NAV may be circa 40p? ... In the current market I can't help but feel that cheaper and quicker upside is available elsewhere.

Sold 20,000 @ 10.54p holding 220,000 shares + circa £4k cash ... support for this level seems pretty strong, if a little premature? ... charting + volume monitoring not really my thing -- GLA

Adelmo Schenato (after 35 years at Eni) becomes COO replacing Ian Baron, who becomes "Business Development Director". * *** Comment *** Sounds good, but a little strange ... is Ian being sidelined?

Yep still here doing the patience thing ... not seen you for a while ... thanks for the links ... Maybe Pierre & Michael think CAD's prospects have wind ?? ... better than water I suppose ;o)

I hav'nt heard of them before, but two significant shareholders (M Meeus 3% and P Salik 5%) each bought 1 million shares on 17/01/12 ... share price was 24-26p that day according to google finance.

One third of Ajusted EPS, not two thirds as per last post ... just checked RI prospectus p129 ... sorry.

Depending on performance pendragon may start paying dividends for the 2012 period onwards, ie not until 2013? (as I understand it). Under the revised banking facilities the dividend may not exceed 2/3 of adjusted EPS. ... I read that somewhere towards the back of the RI prospectus.

lol, thanks ... now you tell me! ... fwiw I think it can do underlying PAT of £20 - £25m ... mostly from looking at the "profit bridge" in the August Analyst presentation ............... I should really have tried to understand the last IMS again before topping up.

Bought 40,000 shares at 7.41p holding 240,000 & skint again!

Page 521 --- *** Thus the very class of "fair-weather investments" which we stated above is a cheif source of serious loss to naive security buyers is likely to afford many sound profit opportunities to the sophisticated operator who may buy them later at pretty much his own price. *** --- *** My Comment *** All very nice, but this sophisticated idiot's running some-what low on cash! --- Wots more, my pf stands circa £80K down from a peak of circa £140K, nearly a year ago and looks like a flipping train wreck!

Some extracts from pages 516 & 517 of same book as before... ******* Observation over many years has taught us that the cheif losses to investors come from the purchase of low-quality securities at times of favourable business conditions. ... blah blah ... It is then, also, that common stocks can be floated at prices far above the tangible investment, ... blah blah ... These securities do not offer an adequate margin of safety ... blah ... Coverage of interest charges ... "etc" ... must be tested over a number of years, including preferably a period of subnormal business such as in 1970-71. ... blah blah blah ... Nor can the investor count with confidence on an eventual recovery - although this does come about in some proportion of the cases. * *** My Comment *** This stuff seems vaguely / partially relevant to NTBR's overall situation.

Copy of text from "The Intelligent Investor, Revised Edition" ...authors : Benjamin Graham (principal/original), W Buffet (preface + appendix) and Jason Zweig (interspersed commentary) ... publisher: "Harper Business" ... page 413. * *** Stock-Option Warrants *** Let us mince no words at the outset. We consider the recent development of stock -option warrants as a near fraud, an existing menace, and a potential disaster. They have created huge aggregate dollar "values" out of thin air. They have no excuse for existence except to the extent that they mislead speculators and investors. They should be prohibitted by law, or at least strictly limited to a minor part of the total capitalisation of a company. * *** My Comments *** 1-- Not sure, but I think the above text was originally written in circa 1973. * 2-- While I may be taking it significantly out of context, I feel the text strikes a chord with me, and has some relevance to my investment here. This is because companies are able to just dish out equity in many ways, and are generally quiet / silent on the issue of their willingness / un-willingness to do so. I believe this creates a basis for limitless fear, in the market, which is difficult to rationally argue with.

Underlying profit for the 6 months to 30/06/11 was £13 million - ie 0.9p a share (post RI) * Valuation could be as simple as doubling up and applying a PE ratio of 10 - ie 18p a share? * Or, more cautiously, bearing in mind the dividend cap (one third of Adj EPS), by applying a 5% dividend yield to 0.6p a share - ie 12p a share?? * *** Comment *** Far from certain wether underlying profitability is improving or deteriorating, and next results not due until Feb 22nd ish? ... also (IMO) full year actual EPS is likely to be negative or break-even because of the £25 million re-financing costs connected to the rights issue.

Been reading Benjamin Graham's book "The Intelligent Investor" ... It seems to suggest to me that the type of pricing anomoly we have here could persist for years!

Not really ... no RNS, so possibly not too significant ... I don't have any business speciffic insights other than "I fink cars r ok" ... sorry ;o)

yep ... I'm starting to appreciate why the RI was unpopular ... might be a positive round here some where ... if so, then its well hidden!

Best of luck with your decision making ... for my self I'm not willing to sell any shares in CAD for less than 50p, but equally I would not be willing to pay more than 12p to top up ... I have 2K cash and £500 a month disposable income ... I think the markets generally cheap now, but have no idea how much worse its going to get ... Merry Xmas!