Member Info for lemmink

Was a damp squib ... sp 68-69p ... volume circa 86,500 shares ... not 13 million!

Shale Gas Agreement ... CAD gave (Shale only) rights to 2 minor licences to a JV with Nadra and Eni ... I assume Nadra gave similar rights to 7 licences and Eni has put up some cash to fund initial exploration work (How much cash would have been useful to know?) ... CAD has 15% of the JV and ENI 50.01%

Mentioned on iii by Herrin1 ... Mec is paying a dividend of 8p on 22 June ... It is a large enough amount of cash to buy circa 13 million shares ... post slump volumes have been pretty low ... will they re-invest or wont they? ... sp could shift significantly in either direction depending on what happens or does not happen (IMO).

Extract ..."Our achievement to have re-risked the exploration phase will allow us to continue expanding our activities". * *** Comment *** Is that a typo?? ... should it be "de-risked" ?

I understand you and others are dissatisfied with CAD's communication to shareholders, but I think its pretty good, mostly because the negatives are not buried by positive "spin". The problem for me is I don't understand much of the technical stuff, and I am too lazy to give the annual report significant attention... Things seem ok for this price range IMO ... Have a nice break.

New Chief Operating Officer appointed ... extracts from RNS 1 "Adelmo Schenato joins Cadogan after a 35 year career at Eni S.p.A" 2 (Chief exec comments) "Adelmo has one of the best pedigrees in the industry"

Extract from chairmans statement ... "strategy of partnering with major industry partners whilst providing the in country expertise and capability" * *** Comment *** I have no idea wether CAD's expertise is up to the job or not ... if other participants at the margin are similarly clueless, and if CAD's expertise has value, then the chances of it being in the price are remote IMO.

Sounds vaguely hopeful ... Savo13, sorry! ... can't think of anything useful to say about it ... Other than, I dont see why CAD would be involved with Eni acquiring and developing "other" licences, since Eni have more cash and more expertise than CAD anyway?

Naked Trader (Robbie Burns) seems to have been shorting this from 73p ... http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/columns/the-naked-trader/9616/well-as-they-say-on-the-reality-shows-its-a-real-roller-coaster-ride-9616.html

*** From the 2007 Accounts *** Revenue per share = 80p * NAV = 68p * Debt per share = 33p * Adjusted EPS = 2.3p * *** From 2011 Accounts & recent stuff/memory *** Revenue per share = £9.10 * NAV = £1.40 to £1.70 ??? not sure ?? * Debt per share = £1.00 * Adjusted EPS = 25p * *** Comments *** Between 2007 & 2009 the share price fell from circa £1 to 1p before being re-capitalised. All the numbers I have tried to calculate are very rough estimates and may be wrong. *** Additional *** Not sure this comparison is really necessary ... but, worst case scenarios and all that ... overall mec is not as weak as it was back then IMO.

Sold 3000 at 67p holding 2000 (average £1.42 now!) ... I don't think the sp is a joke ... but I don't think I know wot I'm doing either! GLA

This is a jolly fine mess! ... anyone feel like cutting the sp in half again just for the sake of it?

To my post yesterday at 22:01 ... denominator to dividend valuation model should read as ... * "(time rate of 5% - dividend growth rate %)"

sold 5000 at 73.8p holding 5000 (av 97p) ... averaging up sweetly !

Net debt (post de-peers & Norway) circa €150 million? * Forecast EBITDA (Given) minimum of €85 million. * DA (guessing €30 million). * I of €10-15 million (inferred) * T of 30% Assumed * Dividend cover of 3 (given) * Using 121 million shares suggests next year dividend likely to be 6.5p * *** Dividend Valuation Model *** Price = Dividend x (100% + dividend growth rate %) / (time rate of 5% + dividend growth rate %) * *** Possible dividend growth rates (IMO) *** per year 0%, negative 2.5%, negative 5% negative 10% or negative 15%. * *** Model values (for the share price) *** 28p, 39p, 62p, 85p £1.30 * *** Comment *** Bugr -- I think I may have paid too much!!!

Nice name! ... Best of luck ... I'm not one for stop losses generally, but they might not be such a bad idea some times!

Bought 10,000 @ 85p this morning ... not feeling too clever tbh!

Hi, (lol) I wish I could play this better! ... I'm willing to hold 60,000 long term in hope of a Bitlyanska deal or something etc ... After buying back in at 53p last year, its been a bit of a struggle! ... I think it could be worthwhile to try to develop trading skills, because fundamental analysis is very hard work and often only leads to a fairly weak (or utterley useless) opinion being formed anyway .. GL

sold 20,000 @ 31.225p holding 90,000 (R2 Av 44.7p ish)

damitallmuttermuttereffit!