Member Info for Lemarc

Add in my £170k

Don't forget the one back in Jan 2019 that was again just rumours and only served to help these shorters:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/01/13/premier-oil-mulls-15bn-cash-call-buy-chevron-assets/

Noticed a trend?

I think this could be the video about the name change and future strategy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mjxkhGMgeVs

The presentation slides for the capital markets day are here:
https://www.pharos.energy/media/zneljgsz/pharos-capital-markets-day-presentation-29-october-2019.pdf

I thought Woodford was shorting pmo instead. Did he get confused with Baillie Gifford?

Aramco’s Repairs Could Take Months Longer Than Company Anticipates, Contractors Say:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/aramcos-repairs-could-take-months-longer-than-company-anticipates-contractors-say-11569180194

Thanks, I didn't know that.

I'm not sure if the shorttracker website is accurate. PMO has more than 18% of it's total shares on loan according to this article!

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/short-sellers-make-35m-in-shares-slide-q079x7ckq

"Hedge funds shorting Thomas Cook shares have made estimated paper profits of almost £35 million betting against the ailing tour operator in the past six weeks.

The holiday company is the third most shorted stock in the UK, with the equivalent of 18 per cent of its shares outstanding out on loan, according to data compiled by IHS Markit. Only Premier Oil, a North Sea-focused producer, and Kier, the troubled contractor, have bigger bets against them, IHS Markit said."

I've been topping up lately but I don't know how low it'll go. I'm still hopeful it'll be around £1.50 by year end

Good info from the video but very similar to the last investor presentation:
- 86kboepd without Pakistan, catcher capacity upgraded to 66kbopd
- Year end debt ratio to be below 2.5
- 4B UK tax credit yet to be utilised
- need more UK assets but out of Chevron's, still looking
- Zama 600MMbbl reserves possibly revised upwards (>175kbopd), more nearby prospects as well
- Tolmount ready soon to add 28kboepd net production
- Tolmount East drilling soon, possibly another 500bcf
- lots of high impact exploration in 2020 - Mexico, Indonesia, Brazil
- finalising sea lion documentation for financing. Not sure how much longer.

The valuation of this share is still too low. If everything stays on plan, we'll be looking at a company that will have ~150kboepd by 2021/22 with Tolmount and Zama and you'll still have sea lion!

Fears of RI over?

https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-delek-close-to-buying-chevron-north-sea-fields-for-2b-report-1001283475

RI to Hostile Takeover? Surely they'll see some value in the 4B tax credit + all the great assets?

Based on the recent Shell/Delek GOM (higher GOR) deal that's about $12.37/boe, this values the PMO 25% share in Zama at $2.474B assuming an 800mmboe total recoverable resource! I think this might be even higher as the same license still holds other nearby prospects!

I was a little worried Initially that they showed a 7900 boe/d figure but after reading the Talos press release, it is reporting gas (474boepd = 2.7mmscf/d) and oil (7426bopd) separately. After some calculations the gas/oil ratio (370cf/bbl) is not terribly high like the ones in gulf of Mexico (>2000scf/bbl) and it's pretty similar to North sea oil. This should boost the value of the field as some people valued it as a condensate future before!Looks like the DEA/Sierra deal was a bargain!

Sorry about the formatting

Givingthelowdown 87p
Smut £1.03
colinfleming £1.04
Bladesman £1.05
TD £1.065
Mrd5432 £1.08
KaiSharp £1.0825
MrEMC2 £1.09
Withoutt £1.10
Hawkey £1.11
outofideas £1.12
Rookie £1.15
loofer 104.5 p
Ohmetoe 107.5
Lemarc 120p

11Givingthelowdown 87pSmut £1.03colinfleming £1.04Bladesman £1.05TD £1.065Mrd5432 £1.08KaiSharp £1.0825MrEMC2 £1.09Withoutt £1.10Hawkey £1.11outofideas £1.12Rookie £1.15loofer 104.5 pOhmetoe 107.5Lemarc 120p - hoping for a great Zama DST

Lemarc 70p - I need to top up
GivingThe Lowdown 75p
mut 76p
Mrd5432 94p
Loofer 98p
Hawkey 99p
Ohmetoe £1.01
Olderman £1.05
Rookie £1.08

I'm hoping it'll come back down a little so I can top up before the big move up to £1+. It's strange the circa 70p cap has been lifted though.

I think we are starting to set the mainstream papers reporting on reducing returns for the wells drilled in smaller and smaller spacings: https://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2019/03/04/energy-journal-shale-firms-find-more-wells-do-not-make-the-oil-patch-merrier/

The smarter firms who are invested in shale should try and get out asap

No motives but just a discounted valuation. Without all the discounts and risks, the numbers will be even higher!

Sorry accidentally pressed on post with my fat fingers.

I meant potentially alot of good news in the second half of the year with zama3, tolmount East, funding news for sea lion, bigp, etc.

Thanks, very interesting read. Looks like there could be potentially alot of good news towards the second half of the year with zama3, tolkount East