Member Info for Lemarc

Wiz, let me try and explain this.

Currently all the PMO shares combined are worth £200M. So for it to keep the same value in future newco at 5%, newco needs to be valued at a minimum of £4B. We will know soon what the reverse split will be i.e what is the conversion rate of current shares to new shares.

Now the new question is: what are other companies similar to the newco valued at currently? Let's look at the market cap of:

AkerBP: NOK79B (£6.8B)
Lundin: SEK64.25B (£5.7B)

Looks good?

Is it still too late for another suitor willing to give shareholders 10% of newco?

There is a big uncertainty as to how much the current shareholders will be diluted. In the announcement, it is said that current shareholders will own up to 5.45% of the newco.

Naysayers expect less but shareholders' permission is needed to vote this in so I won't expect any less.

There's also a chance that some of the creditors might not agree to a new deal and cause this merger to fail. In that case, I guess we should return to previous valuation without any RI as the BP deal is no longer available, we would still be within the clauses of the debt covenant as we are far above the $35/bbl breakeven at $50/bbl oil currently.

Finally, as this share has been manipulated by a hedge fund that has netted them huge profits with massive % of undeclared shorts and only slapped on the finger tip with a small fine, some people have lost all confidence in this share. Not to mention lots of leaks, paid articles on Telegraph to undermine this company, etc.

They need to talk it to book it as reserves. That 3B cash reserves they have is entirely RBL!

Check out the hedge by chrysaor in the last paragraph of the trading update.

Tax credit + >60/bbl & 42p/therm hedge in 2021, it's going to be the cashflow king in North Sea!

Shareholders get to vote and they need to give us some incentive to do so. A definite no vote if it's below 40p/share. You might start seeing the institutional holders trying to improve their position next.

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/corporate/ma/2020/buyer-s-market-for-ukcs-sell-offs

What might a Premier-Chrysaor deal look like? “Given Chrysaor’s existing North Sea portfolio, we would not be surprised if this were an asset sale, potentially of some or all of Premier’s North Sea portfolio,” Slater suggests. “The proceeds [could go] to pay down debt, leaving Premier with its international business,” although he concedes there “are plenty of other possibilities, including a potential full sale of the company or partial asset sales”.

Why is TD so quick to dismiss these rumours? Could have let the LTH enjoy it for a few weeks or months to crush the shorters

What is going on? Hostile takeover?

There are plenty of leaks and possibly insider trading among the creditors for pmo as we've seen over the years as the non action by the authorities for the biggest ever short position in the history of LSE that was unreported for months have emboldened these guys even further. I hope ultimately it's a trap by the authorities to lure these guys in with the new investment and then redistribute their shares to us LTHs :)

Don't forget most of the new shares will be reserved for creditors and ii and even ARCM. Just look at IAG share price and it had hardly moved since the start of lockdown.

Thanks but no thanks. Just cover your shorts now before it's too late.

Lol, you'll need to buy enough to get it back above 35p though

I think it'll be 25p for the debt to equity conversion and the 35p for the rest of us

SP went from 50p to 25p though after RI announcement

Isn't the RI priced in and with the debt to equity swap, the dilution won't be as drastic due to the change in fundamentals?

You can't put in more money in this tax year if you've maxed out but you can sell other shares within your s&s isa to fund the ri. Or you can sell some pmo now to fund it later.

Good time to get more assets from BP at a discount ??
It's another Eon in the making

It could be chrysaor, their CEO just mentioned they need to be "more diversified". 4B North sea tax credit would definitely help too

Assumption for Zama has always been about 60% to the partnership. This article claims it's going to be 2/3, so we might be 'forced' to gain a little more

Incoming bid I guess, RRE price was pretty flat the last month or so before today's news.