Member Info for Lemarc

Not sure if they'll still need an equity raise as the purchase price is now 1/3 of original price and they have dropped Tolmount purchase

Everyone should grow up! Just use filter function, 90% of posts now are about DBNO.

While these natural fractures are fantastic conduits for oil, less viscous water will be a problem later on in field life. Subsea wells, ESP pumps & bad weather most of the year in the West of Shetlands are not a good combination.

“We see a V-shape recovery for gasoline,” said Chris Midgley, head of analytics at S&P Global Platts and a former head of oil markets analysis at Royal Dutch Shell Plc.

https://www.bloomberg.com./news/articles/2020-06-21/the-big-oil-turnaround-from-negative-prices-to-a-bull-market

It's condensate, so PMO pulled out

I think Premier had been quite conservative with Tolmount, similar to Catcher where the in place volumes are much bigger than what has been reported.

Don't forget the recent Tolmount East success which essentially proves that the Tolmount main and east is one giant structure and although they didn't test it, the log properties are similar to the appraisal well in Tolmount main that tested >50mmscf/d.

In terms of development, it'll be quite standard with no subsea wells, all dry trees with a pipeline to shore. This field is really very different to Solan where they developed it with subsea wells and ESPs.

I think the project breakeven cost is $45/bbl with 1.5B upfront capex spend so definitely no go now.

It won't be much of a dilution as all of it will go into covering ARCM's massive short position.

ARCM were holding at least 16.69% of the 840million shares currently which equates to >140million shares and maybe even more as they had 5 days to ensure they had the best price of this share issue of 82.2million shares.

In short, ARCM still has to cover at least another 58million shares they have shorted (still a significant 6.3% of the enlarged total shares issued).

This might be good news for premier as they are currently in talks with BP to renegotiate the Shearwater deal. With the BP CEO openly talking down oil's prospects in the future, is another eon deal incoming?

The gas contracts in Indonesia selling directly to Singapore is highly profitable though

I think there will be shorting ban coming soon so there's this risk that shorters would have to close immediately

You forgot the shorting ban

ARCM closing their short position in anticipation of the hearing?

I am pretty sure the shorters are just selling to other shorters who are closing their positions. It's strange to think about it because there's no real shares exchanging hands here.

Yes there's no incentive for the other debt holders to demand early repayment at this time. Even if premier have to sell assets it'll not be at an optimum price. The company is on track to deliver the cash flow and repay the debt, so I don't see any reason why the debt holders will not agree to extend except for ARCM.

I won't be surprised if they started ganging up with the others to short another 17% of the market share and claim another clerical error

Has anyone received any news about the fine or demand to liquidate UK's largest short position by % market cap? Is this an indirect hint by the authorities that we can just flout the rules and blame it on clerical error?

Any journalists out there willing to probe further for the poor PIs here?

We won't know until pemex has drilled their side of the license. It might even reduce their 40% share of the field!

I hope ARCM can also reveal to the public when their short position exceeded 0.5% for full transparency and also for a quick decision for the authorities to impose their fines or sanctions.

I think there is also a need for the other parties involved to be fined as well. i.e. the banks that were involved in these derivative instruments that ARCM have revealed as they surely are aware that their clients position have exceeded these reporting thresholds.

I think they have around 15% according to this article:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-7767747/amp/Premier-Oil-target-record-132m-short-bet-Hong-Kong-hedge-fund.html