Member Info for Lemarc

anyone found it strange that HBR daily volume is only around £2M/day compared to TLW's £6M/day average. if we assume most of it is due to creditors selling, this means they will only have around £100M left by the end of this month. so maybe it's best to wait until end of next month to buy in.

i don't want to spread rumours but it's going to be positive for the company but i'm not sure about shareholders

There will be no effect as it's not counted in their 2P reserves, only reduction in 2C probably (not assigned much value) but will be offset by the high oil price. There are some unverified industry rumours going around which might have a greater impact though.

https://archive.is/fK7Vn

You're right, the portfolio of assets are overly dependent on the forties pipeline. The premier assets seem to be performing better overall, shoring up the production. Harbour should look into West Africa next.

Maybe they have been shown plans to buy another heavily indebted oil explorer? Are they allowed to sell when they know about this?

Maybe there are fears that it's going to get bigger soon with another large purchase and will have to delay the dividend, is that bad news enough to suppress the share price?

It's a start to enable agreement on sanction where you can then add it to reserves. At the moment zama's worth is heavily discounted with this uncertainty.

So pemex will have to stump up more cash for the initial capex (again they have a bad reputation for paying on time) and initiate cost recovery later from the partnership if redetermination terms are included.

No tax credits, 75% gas, huge decommissioning liability, lack of exciting discovered MMMbbl fields. It'll be good for HBR if they can get that valuation.

thanks, more rumours in the article:

"The company hinted recently that it was well placed to expand but some market watchers said that Harbour was itself likely to attract bid interest, with some claiming suitors were already running the numbers."

it's better trading crypto than this :D

Managed to get some in finally

Thanks soder, please continue to share your valuations with us.

kenniGT, what else are you shorting? I need to be in those shares.

I think we'll have to wait for the navitas deal to fully complete. I think they've extended the deadline to sep-21.

Looking at navitas, it's very likely they'll need to sell their best asset Shenandoah to finance Sea Lion unless the previously talked about UK export loan became a reality.

Horsers, I had an old post with my calculations but it seems to have disappeared. But that was based on a conservative market cap of £4.5B and 5% PMO shareholder ownership (925.53M shares in circulation) which results in 24.31p/share.

If we were to compare to AkerBP (mostly condensate production) which has around 200kboepd, no tax advantages and a government that wants to triple carbon tax, no cheap future development options like Zama/sea lion or even international growth in exploration hotspots, these guys were instead valued at around £6.6B.

Interesting part about the international growth, I guess they will be developing Zama in Mexico/sea lion? So another 150*0.6*0.25 + 80*0.4=54.5kbopd?

It's already priced in.

How do you get 8B from 200Mx20?

Looks like a pump and dump scheme. Quite a few questionable characters supporting mtro now and it's already gone up by 133% since October.