Member Info for Legalwolf

RJ - you have been going on about the nefarious and the shorters for several months. In that time, the share price has gone down from 10p to near 1p. So what good have any of these warnings done? Isn't it time to finally wake up and smell the coffee. They have failed to make a discovery, have been duplicitous in their approach towards retail shareholders, the Rig has caused one problem after another (and eaten up valuable cash), and now they have a cash call to continue drilling.

But what's not to like about all that hey?

It's time to be honest about the situation here. Frankly, anyone with an average above 2p will do well to get their money back here BEFORE Itumbula results are out. The fact is that millions of new shares are going to be added to the pot as part of this fundraise, leaving an overhang to clear (as before). I don't think optimism/sentiment going into the next drill is going to be all that high because of what has happened at Tai 3.

The company is at the stage where a lot of juniors get to, which is that bruised investors just stop believing the pre-drilling hype, and decide it's better to just wait for the results this time round. The share price is so low that it will make the sit and wait approach more tenable to a lot of people as well.

Make no mistake, it's not all rosey here at all. All imo and dyor

I don’t think a return to Tai 3 is on the cards any time soon. My feeling is that they will raise enough for Itumbula and contingency and that will be it. It will be a very nervy drill though both in terms of making a discovery and the drill breaking down again.

The goose is almost cooked here….

Haven’t Noble had more encouraging results though and encountered free gas?

And NONE of the prospects drilled at Tai 3 resulted in the Helium discoveries. 0 out of 3, leaving just the basement target at 10% COS. Hmmm....

Tai 3 looks very much like a duster. NONE of the Lake Bed, Nsungwe or Karoo targets resulted in a discovery. We are left with the fractured basement target. But according to the CPR, it has the lowest COS of the lot (10%) and also the lowest prospective Helium resource. I don't hold out much hope of it coming to the late rescue here.

As for Itumbula, we don't have a CPR and hence the same level of information to go on. But He1 did say that Tai was the highest probability target at Rukwa, and so if that's turned out to be a duster, then it doesn't bode well for Itumbula.

Itumbula will be a last throw of the dice for He1 so far as Helium exploration is concerned. That's why if they can, they should raise funds for Tai 3 now, because they won't get them after Itumbula.

RJ - it was said in response to a question. I didn't get the impression it was something they previously had in mind. But I also had the impression that the funding they have available right now is not in plentiful supply (for example, they weren't sure they would be able to raise enough for a return to Tai 3). Which means that a shareholder offering might well be on the cards. But not long to find out so let's see...

I agree with a lot that One has just written. My experience with these AIM juniors is that it is better to trade them than to invest into them, especially in a bear market. Even trading them will result in losses, but I think to hold onto them for any period of time is almost guaranteed losses. Furthermore, the CPR here gave a COS of 16%, and that also should have created a trading mindset over an investment one imo.

Investing and trading involves probabilities, and the chances of Itumbula being a duster are far higher than it being a discovery. That should factor into how you approach any trade or investment here.

I think the fact that they said they would consider an offer to shareholders points to it being a fundraise via a placing?

In truth (which some of you struggle with), I mentioned this particular fundraise BEFORE the company pre-announced it in the RNS. The reason I often mention the fund raise is because when one is looming, nothing else matters. It's that simple. Right now, there might be large trades going through, but they won't stop the impact of the fund raise on the share price. That's why the share price closed down again yesterday. Similarly, next week, IF they announce a placing at 1p for example, then none of the trades from this week at higher prices are going to stop the inevitable decline in the share price towards 1p.

These are the laws of share price physics. If you ignore them or try to bring nuance/debate to them, you will get crucified more often than not. It's hard enough to make money on AIM, and this dodgy company in particular, at the best of times, without listening to amateurs on here trying to make positive points ahead of a big fund raise. Did the BOD look or sound positive at the AGM? No, they looked deflated and defeated, trying to make the best of a bad situation.

Only extreme risk takers (fools?) get in ahead of a placing. Look at the folk who have done so already and announced their buys on here, they are down already.

My view is very simple - wait for the fund raise. You might also want to wait for them to confirm drilling in January. By waiting, you might get your shares very cheap, or you might pay a premium to where we are now, but at least you are entering/adding at the point where the company is financially and hence operationally de-risked. And at the point where they won't be cutting off your legs with another one of their dodgy RNS?

I don't think it will be long to wait either. IF they are going to drill in early January (and I will only believe it when its confirmed in RNS), then they will have to announce the placing next week, and then get moving again very quickly on the planning/preps. So again, for the sake of a few days, it's best to just wait and see what unfolds. All imo and dyor

In any case, we've played this guessing game many times over in recent months, when it comes to these after hours reported large trades. They are common place with He1 and have been for a while. How often have these trades actually helped in predicting what's to come.

Moreover, we are approaching a big fund raise, and so you would expect large trades to print through right now. How can we be sure it's not MM consolidating their own stock in readiness for the fund raise, as opposed to HNW buying or selling?

Just saying....

Why can't either or both be delayed reported sells from earlier in the week? Wouldn't that be more in keeping with the declining share price each day this week?

I wouldn't be stupid enough to pay as high as 1.39p right now. I suspect this is a delayed reported sell, given where the share price has finished.

RJ - you are SO boring... and wrong.

He1 has been an untrustworthy shambles so far and for such a long period of time. From the near two year farce of trying to secure a Rig, to then having ended up with a dodgy one, which has ended up costing it millions and probably eaten up whatever cost saving they made in purchasing it in the first place. Oh, and no Helium discovery either from drilling 1400 metres of its highest probability target. Even without the placing, the share price was on its way down to reflect the shambles imo.

I didn't get the impression that the placing was done. For example, they weren't even sure whether existing shareholders could take part, saying they would look at it. They also seemed to be unsure about how much they would raise, whether enough for one drill or both. My impression is/was that they are still resolving these matters. Had they not said they are drilling in January, I might have said the placing might take a few weeks, but on the basis that they are claiming they will be drilling again in January, then they have to have the placing done by Xmas, which means next week!

Skippys - because they are untrustworthy and move the goalposts all the time. Therefore, I won't believe it until its confirmed in a RNS.

RJ - we know you are badly underwater because of the consistent bad calls you have made here, but the rules of the jungle don't change because you roar like a lion, but have turned out to be a bit of a donkey. So you have to face up to the reality of your mistakes, one of which is that this placing is going to happen at a price that is as stupidly low as your acumen has been in the last 6 months, regardless of who posts what negativity. All imo

Err... I've lifted it from the company's very own recent presentation. How is that stirring the pot? Let's get one thing clear, this company is hardly the most trustworthy, and so everything it says should be heavily scrutinised. Will it really be ready to resume drilling so soon? I have my doubts. Moreover, I don't need to stir any pot - the company are doing a fine job of that themselves. The share price is on its way down already because of the placing, and doesn't need any helping hand from anyone. A lot of you who have consistently made the wrong calls should have the humility to s t f u and not call out others who have had a much better grasp of reality than you have and over such a consistently long period. All imo and dyor

Even if they get the funding, will they actually drill in January? The reason I ask is that if you look at the presentation from September 2023 (see link below), they were saying that they had to complete Itumbula by November, and the months of December through to March have rain cloud symbols over them, and are blued out in the presentation as being the rainy season (see page 13), and therefore not possible to do (appraisal) drilling. Yet now they are saying they will spud Itumbula in January.

Just wondering what has changed here and why the previous presentation seemed to rule out drilling until March 2024?

Also, have Noble confirmed a timescale for their next round of drilling?

https://www.helium-one.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/230830_Helium-One_Marketing-Roadshow_Sept23_FINAL_for-website.pdf#new_tab

Have they disclosed the Helium concentrations on the way down, so we can see how they have increased?

Bottom line is no discovery at Tai 3, but they are still dangling the carrot based on increase in the Helium shows leaving them with a fractured basement target to go for. However, are they just dressing up a duster here rather than conceding defeat? Because the thing is, you would not expect them to just announce a duster at Tai 3, because it's not in their interests to do that. For example, it would make this next raise all the more harder. So are they just keeping the dream alive for as long as they can get away with doing so?

It will be a case of the more money He1 want to raise, the more discount and dilution they will have to take on. If only £4 million, then they might get away with a raise at these levels. But if they want to raise £6 million + (the amount likely needed to drill Itumbula and Tai 3), then maybe 1p is the discount that is required. Who knows, but as I said, if they want to be drilling in early Jan, then they need this sorted out for next week.