Member Info for leedskier

Yes, possibly by 11.30 am tomorrow you maybe even more upset...if the market decides to test its upper resistance...and oil is certainly not getting any cheaper!!

It would be fascinating to know how many of the sellers in the last 30 minutes have previously traded in this share during the course of today (and how many times)

It seems that the (temp) lack of LSE250 status continues to encourage the market to manipulate the price of this share (selling short) particularly when there is no other fun about and the USA is off on holiday, maybe the flowing of oil this month and 250 listing will reverse that trend, the Russian analysts are still marking this share as a buy with a 78% UPSIDE and a fair market value of 42$(US)

The movement in Lukoil may relate to an article in todays Kommerant Newspaper..the first part of which reads"LUKOIL-Uralsib Partners at Final Stage of Separation Vagit Alekperov and Nikolay Tsvetkov are completing the separation of their joint business, a process they began a year ago. LUKOIL announced yesterday that company president Alekperov had purchased $1.401 billion worth of company stock and that board member Tsvetkov had sold stock worth $1.233 billion. This is the key transaction in the split of the partners. Tsvetkov intends to use part of the proceeds from the deal to buy out Alekperov's share in Uralsib. Alekperov's purchase of stock from Tsvetkov will help him and company vice president Leonid Fedun preserve their blocking package in LUKOIL in case of an additional stock issue."

TNK-BP agreed to sell its 62.9 percent stake in Rusia Petroleum, which holds Kovykta's development license, to Gazprom for just $700 million to $900 million -- a paltry sum for a majority share in a project due to be worth some $20 billion when it is completed.

Today's Moscow Times: Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Naryshkin told Monday's [investors]conference that a much-delayed new subsoil law limiting foreign investment to 49 percent in so-called "strategic sectors" would soon be debated in the State Duma. Yet analysts say the rules of the game were spelled out late last year, after Shell and its Japanese partners sold a majority stake in Sakhalin-2 to Gazprom after months of pressure from environmental authorities. For news about higher pipeline charges by Transneft and proposed higher export duties see www.kommersant.com

using a 3 month period taking out the temp fall on the news of the investigation and the temp rise following news that the licenses were not to be cancelled, an interesting comparative pattern with Russia's largest independant oil producer emerges. maybe the fiscal effect is a significant determinant.

into which shares the brokers are pouring all their money into. Not Russian oil pipes by the look of things on this page.

See today's Daily Telegraph & Financial Times. The British Government are very pious about contries who have different customs & practices; unless of course they are spending billions on military aircraft (Panorama last night). Unlike the Germans who are "reconstructing" the banking sector in Russia. The likely next flash point will be if the British Government vetos any bid by Gazprom for Centrica in the "national interest" while complaining about Russia protecting its "national interest" by ensuring domestic control of the exploitation of its natural resources. Meanwhile Zimbabe enjoys membership of the WTO while Russia is denied entry, on the pretext that they refuse to import Polish meat. lol

If the market picks up tomorrow, and Blair uses his usual charm on Putin to calm the tensions at their after lunch meeting tomorrow, I think they could gain weight. I expect the company to keep its head down until the oil flows and the further meeting with the regulators falls off the radar. It maybe the failure to meet the date to acquire 250 status was part of that exercise.A useful indicator are the not insubstantial purchases made by Deutche Bank (their investment in Russia is not insignificant and they are firmly in the loop there). Good luck.

I have not seen it but I think the Ministry's version of Friday's meeting may have been released. Uralsib (one of Russia's leading banks/financial corporations - with an base in the City) posted a note earlier this week about last Friday's meeting. I make no comment about it except to note that it is said that there was another inspection of the fields a couple of days or so before Friday's meeting which it is said raised a number of issues which have to be addressed in the next 3 months. The fiscal regime cannot be overlooked. Oil is taxed at (I think) 90% above 45$ and in addition exports duties on crude have been recently increased. The Russian markets have called for a revision of this regime however the Kremlin appears determined to make hay while the sun shines, anticipating a fall in crude oil prices in the next year. In Russia quite a lot of "smart money" and much of the inward investment is following the rapid expansion in consumer spending with incomes/inflation increasing at 18% p.a.

Taxing Times for Energy Champions By Simon Shuster Staff Writer The three largest independent firms in the oil and gas sector came out with earnings reports this week, and all three disappointed. The industry's future has begun to look downright grim. TNK-BP's net income in the first three months of 2007 fell 60 percent year on year, and 11 percent compared with the previous quarter. LUKoil also saw an 11 percent drop in revenues from the third to fourth quarters of last year, revealing weakness that was "far more serious than the market expected," Alfa Bank wrote in note to investors Wednesday. On Monday, Novatek revealed 2006 earnings growth that was 15 percent below consensus expectations, and 34 percent below those of Renaissance Capital, urging the bank to reassess the gas firm's value

"Imperial Energy. Licenses unaffected after Rosnedra meeting Imperial Energy issued a press released following Friday's meeting at Rosnedra, where there were discussions on the company's obligations regarding its licenses in the Tomsk Region. According to the company, the commission notified Imperial Energy that none of its major licenses were under threat of revocation, and that the company was fully compliant with license requirements on 80% of its properties. The company has to meet currently outstanding seismic obligations at certain other locations (representing less than 20% of the total business value) within the next three months. We expect Imperial to be fully capable of performing the required work and see the results of the meeting as a major positive sign, as the tone of the discussion appears to have been reasonable and constructive. Our recommendation for IEC is Buy, with an end-2007 fair value of $42.3."

As will be known there are two different Government bodies involved in Russia. The complaining body and the licensing body. Tomorrow the licensing body are to consider complaints against TNK-BP in respect of its alleged under exploitation of its gas field (an attempt by that company to obtain a Court Order was refused) and according to Reuters the complaint against Imperial (namely that it allegedly underestimated its reserves when applying for the license to exploit or allegedly overstated them to the London Stock Exchange). The complaints maybe less important than the current agenda in the Kremlin, which is said to be (in the run up to the Presidential elections next Spring) a wish that State Companies exploit ALL natural resources for the benefit of Russians and not Western shareholders. Imperial argued at an earlier stage that it was a small player and should be allowed to produce. It is not rocket science to appreciate that the decision tomorrow (if it is concluded) will have an effect.

According to its recent first quarter financial results, Lukoil’s net profit is a mere 25% of what it was in the same period last year. Rosneft isn't in very good shape either, with a 20% drop in profits. The problem is fiscal in nature. Taxes payable by Russian oil companies are calculated based on the oil price during the previous period. Oil price volatility means one period can end up extremely profitable with low taxes and high oil prices, but the next one may be completely different - with higher taxes and low oil prices.

is now posted on London Stock Exchange

maybe the boycott of the 10th annual Russian investment conference in London by Russian Officials and Leading Business figures has caused jitters