Member Info for lebugue-addick

A very compelling investment opportunity imo if one is prepared to look one year ahead. I like the sound of more mtpa eventually in train B.

Hi Tom

I think what may have annoyed some folk is that in December Shaun said his intention was to put out an updated resource in early 2023 and a month or so later he is now saying he will probably align GGP with Newcrest update in August. To my mind I am not that fussed whether we get the MRE update in February it is more the fact that the Managing Director changed his policy so quickly. Trust is hard won and easily lost. I am prepared to forget this one lapse - I know where we will be in a year's time and happy to wait to reap the rewards which are surely coming our way.

This was the extract by the way:

"And Shaun, any updates on Havieron, how’s that going?
- Yeah look, continues to be a tremendous platform for us
- I think in the last update in October we had about 943m of decline development, that’s over 1km now so that’s a little bit of a milestone for us all, got through down more than a km of that decline and as expected the ground conditions continue to be really good as we move in that deeper area of the Permian
- And then of course the exploration results, if you look at the body of exploration results we’ve put out at over the course of the Calendar year ‘22 it’s been tremendous
- And our intent is to put out an updated resource in early ’23 and you should all really be expecting that’s going to be very positive just by looking at that collection of drill… that body of work that the drill rigs have produced, so exciting times ahead for us."

https://www.ggpchat.co.uk/viewtopic.php?t=613

..to all our Aussie investors

The likes of Paulb20 and avo have clearly not listened to The Sunday Roast today. Just one year away from first ore - that is exceedingly quick by mining standards and as SD said it is indecently quick between a decision to mine and first ore.

Personally I am looking forward to getting my hands on one of the first gold coins and will personally be in Perth in March/April 2024 celebrating my 50th anniversary as it happens. So there's an incentive - make it happen Shaun.

antigua - that's a bit of a defeatist attitude in terms of SP reaction. The SP will do what it does irrespective of news.

Paddy - for once I only partially agree though it does seem that the working relationship MAY be back on track (we can't be absolutely sure yet). My take is that Newcrest for the time being are in negative "goodwill deficit" as far as Greatland is concerned. Producing another upgraded MRE now you would have thought would be encouraged by Newcrest given the 2 companies came within 1% of each other last time. From a GGP shareholder point of view I would have welcomed the comfort blanket of knowing that we now have a 45% upgrade from the last 6.5m oz gold equivalent to some 9m oz resource and maybe a 4.2m oz reserve, particularly as the current MRE is so far out of date.

The success of the drilling programme supports the expectation of an expanded resource estimate at Havieron.

So in other words if Newcrest don't produce one next month we will. Message received Shaun loud and clear.

Assuming Simon Rennick does indeed join and implement the corporate governance review as set out in the RNS he will also want all remaining skeletons in the cupboard, if any, brought to attention and dealt with. As an incoming Chairman he will not want any remaining issues coming back to haunt him on his watch - clean slate moving forward.

Hi Tom - as you say Newcrest would have pulled the plug ages ago if they did not plan to go ahead with DTM. It would make no commercial sense and their shareholders would be up in arms.

As far as the next few weeks/months are concerned lots to look forward to:

1. Drilling update tomorrow evening - 12 assays pending from last time, all at total depths of 1000m or more, except one -
HAD098W8 - total depth 1,045.6m
HAD134W1 - 1888.5m
HAD163W1 - 1174.6m
HAD164W2 - 933.8m
HAD166 - 2323.3m
HAD166W1 - 2172.2m
HAD166W2 - 2162.2m
HAD168 - 1846.4m
HAD168W1 - 1540.1m
HAD168W2 - 1836.8m
HAD169 - 1203m
HAD170 - 1849.1m

2. Juri JV - expect a quick update from Newcrest as part of their quarterlies
3. Confirmation that the decline progress has been accelerating in recent weeks
4. Expect to hear that drilling has stopped over the hot season period (which ironically is normally the highest rainfall season)
5. Scallywag results - Q1 '23 hopefully
6. GGP MRE update - not expecting one from Newcrest imo - hopefully as Z says we are looking at 4m oz gold equivalent reserve included within an updated MRE resource of 9m oz gold equivalent. SD already tipped the wink that it should be at least consistent with the 43% CAGR.
7. FS/DTM - H1 hopefully but dependent on Newcrest. Will be interesting to hear what our strengthened Board have to say (would love to be a fly on the wall...)
8. GGP interim financial results - late Q1
9. Option agreement to sell Tasmanian tenements - update tba.
10. Drilling of Ernest Giles to commence - really excited about this for later in 2023. With our new drilling grant to partially fund the work.

Hope that helps - much to look forward to

GLA l-a

.......to be issued 25 January

Newcrest quarterly will be on Wednesday 25 January. Here is the link:

https://www.newcrest.com/investor-centre/key-dates

JC - well balanced post as always; let's hope it doesn't come down to a dilutive placing at this level. A one billion share placing at say 0.35p only brings in £3.5m which may not be enough. With 1.88 billion shares currently in issue that would be one massive pill to swallow.

In terms of valuation a good benchmark has to be the fact that GGP were prepared to offer Newcrest $85m to buy back a 5% share. So on that basis at that time (when there were 4,209m shares in issue and exchange rate was around £1=$1.16) GGP were underpinned quite solidly at a minimum $510m (or 10.4p) for our retained 30% share.

However as we now know Shaun was prepared to go higher when negotiating the 5% but kept it low for prudent negotiating reasons.

Following the dilution this would give a current figure of around 8p which is about where we find ourselves. But arguably GGP's prospects have increased significantly as we have certainty of funding and a clear road ahead subject to DTM.

That valuation also ignores every other tenement which must be worth a couple of pence a share minimum imo.

On that basis I am comfortable with our current position and much to look forward to in 2023 but usual DYOR caveats apply.

mark - you are right to draw attention to the copper. It is very significant - just over 15% of the total MRE based on the 3 March 20222 RNS mineral resource update:

"Mineral Resources (including Ore Reserves) increase to 5.5M oz Au and 218kt Cu or 6.5M oz AuEq".

Copper futures currently $4.30/lb ($9,632/ton) for March 2023 contract, edging closer to the all time closing high of $4.75/lb achieved 27 February 2022.

oops my sums may be a little off there - 30% of free cash flow would be more like £3

Maintaining disciplined capital allocation remains a cornerstone of Thungela's strategy and a key enabler of the long-term sustainability of the business. The board is committed to returning additional cash to shareholders above the targeted minimum pay-out ratio of 30% of adjusted operating free cash flow5. With this in mind, the Company expects to declare a final dividend for FY 2022 upon the release of its annual results on or about 27 March 2023.

Net cash at 30 November of R19.8 billion. Even allowing for taxes, royalties and insurance that still leaves plenty of scope to declare a dividend of 30% of free cash flow when the annual results are released in March. A minimum of £5 a share I would suggest.

From EZJ News on LSE:

"Elsewhere in London, Esken soared 11% as it announced a multi-year agreement with easyJet to operate from London Southend Airport.

The aviation and energy infrastructure firm said the agreement allows easyJet to develop its network and capacity at London Southend Airport, including a newly announced route from London Southend to Amsterdam.

Shares in easyJet were down 0.5%."

2 broker buy ratings today - Canaccord SP target 385p and Berenberg 470p

Very reassuring update and much to look forward to in 2023 including strategies in place to deal with electricity price rises.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/ATYM/q4-operations-update-and-2023-production-guidance-82763xd1fyj4qpu.html

Agreed Bamps - silence is golden but my eyes still see