RE: Argo without a Nasdaq is overvalued20 Feb 2021 09:46
Growthinvestor20.. I like your fag packet analysis, but can I give a slightly different angle here.. You are using a PE of 30 on gross revenue..however, if we continue to mine at a gross revenue of 70%..and either we double our mining capacity or BTC doubles, or both, our NET PROFIT, in my view is a better measure for safety of valuation.
For example, in the space, we are in, we could use a PE of anything from 20 -40..but say we get to mine 200 BTC per month because we bring online more machines and BTC stays at $50,000...the valuations work out like this.( I have assumed we take a very generous 10% difference between G/P and Net Profit, as we only have 8 staff and I do not imagine Peter likes spending money on fancy offices and stuff, so I think, a net profit margin of 60%, which would be phenomenal anyway; we get figures as shown below:.
200 BTC per month, or 2400 per year x $50,000 = $120,000,000 Revenue@60% NET Profit= $72,000,000 .PA.
Take that $72million and using PE or 20 or 30 or 40, the conservative valuations come out as follows:.
$72Million x 20 = $1.44Billion valuaion.
$72Million x 30 = $2160 Billion Valuation.
$72million x 40 = $2880 billion Valuation.
At each of these valuations with circa 360million shares, we get a share price of $4, $6, or $8..
Remember these figures are conservative, as we are basing our figures on NP, not turnover..and a BTC at $50,000...If BTC goes to $100,000, you can do the maths.
Fundamentally, many companies at present have sky-high valuations with no income, no profits, and none likely for some time, with ARGO, we have an up and ready business at the cusp of making shed loads of real profits, and that in itself will distinguish what Peter is doing and on that basis, ARGO is so undervalued, not on what it is doing today but on what it looks like it can achieve..Please shoot holes in all of the above, but if ARGO was selling widgets, I would be all this company like a rash, as its future looks uniquely incredible to me...or am I simply a dumb arse investor? ATB. LP..PS I have made my money betting on horses and I understand risk..I would not go 100% all-in on ARGO but surely anyone with a brain has to have s % of their money here and just sit and wait for Peter to do his stuff.