Prostate cancer market PYC/dosemerx18 Oct 2024 16:01
Taken from a new broker note on OBD
he prostate cancer market is large, with an estimated c 299k new cases in the US in 2024, and around 25m PSA tests performed each year in the US alone (and likely similar again in rest-of-world). We assume that EpiSwitch PSE can capture 1% of this market, implying 250k tests per annum. This would also be possible to achieve within existing facilities, with current capacity for 50k tests per quarter, which could be increased substantially through the addition of extra shifts. Hence 250k tests per annum seems achievable in the context of both the market opportunity and capacity, but will require continued spend on commercialisation. We assume peak testing volumes could be reached within the next 10 years.
Global sales of CPIs are around $40bn, with Merck’s Keytruda (pembrolizumab, a PD-1 inhibitor) accounting for $25bn sales in 2023 ($15bn in the US). Based on Keytruda’s $11k list price (three-weekly dose) in the US, and applying Merck’s reported average 37% gross:net discount (across Merck’s entire US pharma portfolio), this suggests >1m doses of Keytruda were prescribed in the US in 2023, for perhaps 200-300k patients, assuming between 4-6 doses per patient