Member Info for LateStageCaptlst

With Amazon in the weeds and these fast grocery tickers all smacked down -- I can see some big consolidation on the horizon soon, things could get very spicy quickly

As I said in another thread, I don't think the directors can buy/sell right now as they have inside information with the PE activity -- there are very strict rules around trading when you have info that is not public to the market

of the 90% that lose money, half made the right bets, they just got slaughted on the spread or flash stopouts

I keep reading about expectation here of director buys but there is so much insider info right, I really don't think they can legally buy (or sell) anything in current situation

With the exception of pre-planned scheduled sales, you can't buy/sell when you know things that are not public

They are all right down since summer, but they all are massive acquistion targets for Amazon, Tesco etc.

None of the legacy retailers have the last mile tech and resource, with all the new players coming online it has to end in consolidation

Roo and Just Eats etc. are trading on quite high valuations, the 'gig' work issue with EU etc. is a big drag on them at moment, until that is resolved they're unlikely going anywhere even with omicron

The exception is that Amazon or Tesco or similar might make a move on one of them

They desperately the last mile tech/infra and will have a lot of free cash in new year at same point Deliveroo etc. are at low valuations

Amazon would also be a stronger force at resolving the gig issue

Disappointing but I'm sticking with them all -- one way or another it's the future of shopping for a big section of the market soon (much wider than groceries)

I don't think they've got any positive news on the horizon

The next problem they have is retaining staff at this level

I've only really dabbled in biotech stuff this year, mostly burned, but I think that is more because I didn't dabble widely enough -- it feels like you need a lot of eggs in a lot of baskets, investing in just a couple is pure casino

it was only heading this way when those director options got exercised for peanuts

glad I sold 60%ish after seeing what happened to $AVIR (still got burned on $CRTX as didn't reduce exposure there fast enough)

going to stick to the tech sectors going forward -- at least I've a basic understanding of the fundamentals and risks on that side

Solid RNS for Q3, ahead of expectations and not fluffy solid -- it looks like they really had a decent quarter

It's not comparable, this is why I say many people are misunderstanding what's happening

Collectively these businesses and the new ones like Getir etc. are buying small dark distribution centres in every town and many across a city

As a generalisation, in those centres they make own brand pizzas/kebabs, store groceries, FMCG items and lots of most popular consumer products like Levis, Apple etc. -- it's not just about ordering a quick takeaway any more

They can deliver in 15 minutes and for free if you're a member

So at 4.45pm you can order clothes + milk + dog food + hot take away on your phone and it's in your office reception moments later

Royal mail can't do that, neither can Amazon etc. but these firms are building all that today

Once consolidated this new industry will be bigger than all the current retail players

There is a lot more going on with Deliveroo, Just Eats, Door Dash, Delivery Hero etc. than people seem to understand

They are hiring 1,000s of developers and building massive last mile infrastructure beyond what is obvious -- with many new players on the way like Jokr

The final infrastructure with 1,000s of dark sheds across every small town and vast software platforms -- not only delivering hot food but toothbrushes, jeans, milk, even iPhones to any populated location in the world in 15 minutes is going to transform retail

In 4 years going to a super market for groceries and waiting 24h for an Amazon delivery will be something your dad did -- it will be the norm to just order what you need every day with free delivery as we'll all be on Prime type monthly payments to the winner

This is going to be a hotbed of growth and consolidation -- the winner will be bigger than Amazon or a much bigger Amazon than it is today

Thanks, so for numbers involved (370 shares) -- I can do nothing and it is what it is -- there is no big play I'm missing here by selling/buying or something

This is a very LTH for me, I just wanted to get a few airlines into SIPP while they were down

Appreciate the post on this, I was finding it hard to find any clear info on it

Still don't really get the next move needed, but will stop thinking about selling today -- I'd rather not to do anything but don't want to find out later I should have just sold/bought to get some of the loss back

I am lost on this one, I've 3K val shares in an online SIPP (AJ) that I bought a few weeks back

Is the concensus here I sell all those 370 shares at a £400 loss today, then buy back in later from the rights issue?

Or I only sell a fraction? and does it have to be done today?