I've decided to do some maths too!12 Jun 2010 18:53
Let’s say we want to invest £10k and need to decide whether to invest in fogl or fkl for the maximum end profit.
£10k of fogl shares currently at £2 = 5000 shares.
£10k of fkl shares currently at £5.35 = 1880 shares
fogl shares rise from £2 to £10
fogl shares now worth 5000 x 10 = £50,000
fkl holding:
fkl has a current mkt cap of £48m
the 12m fogl shares it owns are now worth 12m x £10 = £120m
but we must deduct the current £2 value of fogl shares currently in the fkl sp = £24m
so nett value of fogl shares = £96m (without the fogl shares fkl shares would be ca. £2 - £3)
The new mkt cap of fkl = £96m + £48m = £144m
Fkl has 9m shares in issue so new fkl sp = £144m / 9m = £16
You own 1880 fkl shares so your holding is worth 1880 x £16 = £30,000
= quite a big difference from 5k fogl shares = £50,000
Now depending on what fkl management decides to do with the money:
If they decide to invest in the oil industry infrastructure (homes, warehouses etc), this will require substantial capital investment, which in the end might have a nett return on investment of, say, typically 5%. I doubt if the sp would hold up at £16 in such circumstances. More than likely it would drop substantially (imo), let’s say to £8 - £10. Your 1880 shares would now be worth iro £15k - £19k. Naturally, the company has many options, eg a special dividend to return the profits money to shareholders or just sit on the capital or invest in real earner elsewhere.
Dividends: current dividends will be microscopic because nothing has changed as far as profitability goes, so the company cannot really increase the divi as its profits come from logistics, fishing squid and its art business. Nothing has happened yet in the oil industry, and in any case a lot of investment cash is needed for such an enterprise. I am not an economist, so any criticism of my calculations is welcome, and the last thing I want to do is deramp the stock. As always said, I know fkl is a good company – I only want to clarify so people will not be misguided by dreams of great wealth! GL all!