Why I think this will multibag to £2 !2 Sep 2020 11:43
1. Cinema can never be replicated at home. Cinema has survived TV, VCR, DVD and streaming. The cinema experience just gets better and better.
2. Cinemas are profitable at less than 20% occupancy, unlike say airlines. This means social distancing is possible in cinemas, as these are huge spaces, people don’t move once seated, facing same direction.
3. Ample liquidity till Dec 2021. No need for an equity raise. Mooky (CEO) and family own nearly 30%, so equity raise even more unlikely.
4. Recent Mooky (CEO) interviews are very, very positive on future of cinema, and in particular, Cineworld. Says ‘big news’ after weekend
Most recent interview a only few days ago:
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2020/08/27/we-had-many-shows-sold-out-under-the-restrictions-cineworld-ceo.html
5. Tenet looks to be very successful in first few days. A ‘movie event’ - getting fantastic reviews. Will kickstart the cinema industry.
6. More US cinemas remain on track to open this Friday 28th August.
7. US Covid cases and deaths are now dropping fast.
8. Emerging news from US on NY and California (25% of US Cineworld estate) concerning re-opening.
9. Vaccine Phase 3 data is coming from multiple promising vaccines. Many treatments for Covid being developed or approved. Likelihood of second lockdown very remote.
10. US stimulus news due in September. Markets will surge on this.
11. Cine has ‘bounceability. - has bounced to 100p twice since March. Peel Hunt reiterates target of 180p
12. 2021 looks to be the best year ever for cinema !!
13. Plenty slated out of the Marvel studios to keep the tills ringing between now and 2022.
https://www.gamesradar.com/uk/marvel-phase-4-leak-release-dates-new-mcu-movies-lineup/
14. Jangho, backed by a multi-trillion Chinese sovereign wealth fund, has been building a stake last few weeks. Now over 5%. Jangho is known for making foreign takeovers. AMC cinemas in the USA already have a majority Chinese shareholder.
Sunday times today had this:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/chinese-tycoon-liu-zaiwangs-stake-offers-plot-twist-at-cineworld-0mrqz6p2m
15. Paramount ruling last in the few weeks now allows for US film studios to buy cinema chains. This law change in US was done after lobbying by US film studios.
16. 9.09% of CINE stock is shorted.... 125m shares need buying back soon. There will be margin calls on loss making shorts. But free shares are scarce .... Jangho is still stake building.
This will inevitably lead to a HUGE short squeeze ...it's a snowball effect. Sp can easily multibag. This short squeeze will happen immediately if there is a takover approach.
17. There has been a flurry of positive media reports and broker notes. This is likely to increase over coming weeks with Tenet and full US cinema reopenings.
https://www.sharecast.com/news/broker-recommendations/cineworld-shares-set-for-hard-bounce-says-peel-hunt--7617294.html
As always, my opinions. DYOR etc
GL A